Short-Term Delivery Trading Calls

Cairn India Ltd:
This counter is trading at around 297 levels. We recommend a buy call with a target of Rs.372. 


Biocon Ltd.:
Short term traders and investors are advised to buy and hold for a target of Rs.350. Strong fundamental and business arguments, competition scenario favours the company.


Fortis Healthcare Ltd.:
After its recent acquisition in Singapore, this company will become Asia's second largest hospital chain. Moreover Ranbaxy Group promoters at helm will drive PE expansion by big investors wanting to invest with such a promoter leadership business.
Buy for a target of 173-178 for short term and 212+ for mid term. Purely Bull market call.


Tata Power Company Ltd:
This is comparatively a low volatility counter. Sudden 2-3 consecutive days spurt make it rise 10-15%. Also slides with same frequency. Seems to be building a strong base and narrowing consolidation range and giving way to technical break outs. 
Buy with a target price of Rs.1395 and 1440.
All calls are based on fundamental, technical and other factoral analysis.
For more and regular calls Contact our Research Team on 09377008708.

Container Corporation: So what you booked profits @ our TGT 1300?

Now you are reading and watching tips for Container Corporation. But you could have made it early if you read THIS POST on 5 March 2010...!
It reported a New 52-Week high of 1500 Today.

http://www.meghainvestments.com/2010/03/rdx-for-bulls-container-corporation.html

FMCG bets: Godrej Consumer and HUL Achieves Targets

Godrej Consumer Products Ltd. and Hindustan Unilever Ltd. Achieved Targets!!!!
Just Click on the below link to find what we suggesting on 14th April:
http://www.meghainvestments.com/2010/04/fmcg-bets.html

Observe Earth Day: Some tips how humans could be responsible children of mother Earth

Few tips to contribute to Earth Day as responsible child of nature.

• Save water.
• Save electricity.
•  Consume less.
• Use more daylight. Wake up early to finish your works rather than working late.
• Use less and less of plastics and other non disposable materials. That harms nature the most.
• Don’t do over consumption. Money is printed as much as required, circulates and goes from one hand to another. But the natural resources are not re-producible. Don’t pollute water in any manner.
• You are requested to set yourself right. You don’t need to join any rally. No one would need to if everyone behaves responsibly during their life. Then also, we wouldn’t need any campaign or effort for saving environment, nature and our earth.
• Plant and nurture at least 10 trees in your lifetime. At least five. You can do it in your society compound or nearby place.

Warren Buffett says Growth & Value Not Contrasting investment styles: sends Vijay from Allahabad

In response to a Post on Growth Stocks, Vijay from Allahabad has sent a very good quotation by Warren Buffett. Read and learn:

“Market commentators and investment managers who glibly refer to ‘growth’ and ‘value’ styles as contrasting approaches to investment are displaying their ignorance not their sophistication. Growth is simply a component-usually a plus, sometimes a minus-in the value equation”

-Warren Buffett (2000)

Rational Behavior in Investing: Some practical points

Investors many times take unnecessary risk. They tend to buy stocks pricey due to fear of losing opportunity and being left out of the rally. But why should at all investors rely on rally? This is wrong approach. You buy first and then let the markets justify it for you. If you have invested right it will eventually come up. Remember: Value investing always beat everything.

Always wait if you are not finding any value picks. Remain on cash. Remember your investment would only reap returns if you follow your value-investing strategy. And otherwise not. So then why invest when you are not sure, and it is like taking unnecessary risk?

If some stocks are going up today and you don’t own many of them or most of them, so what? They were the very stocks that were not going up in past while others were. So you thing to shift to the rising stocks or some others stocks because your stocks are not in the rising or 52-week high list is not rational thinking. They will be some day. You can not predict it. Also see by how much volume this whole lot of mid-cap and small-cap stock are rising. How much is the market float. Many stocks rise with thin volume and in a way to benefit a very few who are on the inside rather than the general investors community like you and me or our friends. Just ask yourself that looking at the given volume or sudden erratic rises how many could have been able to earn out of it? How many could have taken position before not many day? This kind of rational thinking will help you overcome your fear of losing opportunity and being left-out of the market or that your strategy is not right or thoughts that your picks are wrong and so on.

Gems for Value Investors: Parag Parikh's lessons on "Growth Stocks"

               Here are some of the gems from Parag Parikh’s book Value Investing and Behavioral Finance. The views on so-called “Growth Stocks” are very interesting

• Seasonal investors chase the fancy opf the markets in the name of growth stocks, and call themselves growth investors.
• Growth stocks investing is based on hunches, dreams, illusions or popular opinion. They are better termed as ‘dream stocks’.
• Growth stocks investing is more of a philosophy of buying what is popular.
• When one can not justify the high valuation of a stock one would argur\e that is is a growth stock and hense expensive.
• For any stock to be a growth stock it has first to be value stock, value and growth are inseparable.
• The concept of growth stock is a product of bull market. It dies when the bear market sets in. Bear markets create value.
• The term ‘growth stock’ is meangless since ‘growth stocks’ can be identified only in retrospection; it is merely stock that went up.
• When a stock becomes a fancy and fad in the market, it is chased by one and all. The sharp rise in the stock price makes it growth stock. Before the rise how many would call it a growth stock? It is only when the price move very fast it is evident that it has found fancy and is thus termed as a growth stock.
• It is the value of mastery that excites investors. It is the lure of the newand the unknown that fascinates the investors. Investors are always looking at something new, as they believe that novelty can fetch them more money. This novelty becomes a fancy when more and more investors chase it. This mixes with behavioural biases. Thus, a fad and fancy start quoting at fancy prices. This is termed as growth stock as there is no available explanation to justify the steep rise in price.
• Growth investing is investing in new ideas, new technology, new sectors, new initial public offerings, new additions to the indices, new fada and fancies etc.
• Value investing is knowledge and growth investing is mystery.

There are a lot more gems from India's own value investing veteran. We will update more later on. 
Investors with a 2 year horizon can buy our "Emerging 7-Star Portfolio". Click HERE for details.

Excerpts from IMF Global Financial Stability Report

The IMF recently released on 20^th Global Financial Stability Report. Few comments and excerpts from the reports:

                    IMF put stress on the need for the countries to take steps to revive credit growth. It expressed concerns over potential rising seriousness of Sovereign debts than the private sector sluggishness. It also mentioned that the global economy is on a revival path. It expressed further concerns by stating that the government balance sheets are becoming vulnerable and the risk and further vulnerabilities to the global economy is coming from this side. It acknowledged the deterioration of fiscal balances of countries. This is especially true when recently USA is already and was always in deep debt, it brought the subprime crisis while the ghosts of Greece crisis are not fading still and the countries are in queue like those of Spain, Poland, Italy, UK, France, Japan etc to bring up their debt problems when the time permits. All of these countries have their debt level around more than or equal to 90% of their GDP.

The IMF also commented that the Longer-run solvency concerns could translate into short-term strains in funding markets as investors require higher yields to compensate for future risks.

While the cost of insuring Greek sovereign debt against default surged to a record on 19^th April since the debut of Euro currency in 1999.

The IMF report also said the main sources of sovereign risk in the 16-country euro region have shifted to reflect market concerns about fiscal sustainability. At the same time IMF mentioned that the US and European banks are safer than they were last year.

The IMF official said that the Government lenders also face problems and the reason is the debt-to-GDP ratio of the world’s advanced economies which is nearing the highest levels since World War-2.

The IMF report notably focused on the recent problems faced for short term financing for banks and governments alike.

One of the strongest writing of the report was the mention of IMF that the emerging markets such as Asia, and Latin America. This attraction is due to strong growth prospects, appreciating currencies, and rising asset prices, lower interest rates are attracting capital flows in competition to developed economies.

The other noticeable point of the IMF report was the concern about excesses in real estate markets especially China.

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT FOR TRADERS AND INVESTORS

SENSEX-

Index was making new high but relative strength (RSI) was not making new high on weekly charts so this is Negative divergence and this could be first sign of reversal.

Support @ 17400/17000, and

Resistance @ 18000/18200

CNX IT-

After the results of Infosys this index is also rising and touching new high but again relative strength index (RSI) was not making new high on weekly charts so this is negative divergences and this could be first sign of reversal.

See the Charts below:

1. Sensex Chart:

2. CNX IT Chart:

MOMENTUM TRADING CALLS:

TATA STEEL

This stock is on the top of performance cycle and not sustaining above 700. It could start correction in this stock.

 GRASIM

Again this stock is also on the top of performance cycle and closing below 2800 will take to 2690 levels.

 ACC

From 960 levels I was bearish and now closing below 930 will take to 880 and 860 levels.

 RANBAXY

 Above 460 no problem! But closing below 460 will create panic to 400 levels.

 RELIANCE IND.

Closing below 1070 will create panic for this stock will slide to 1020 levels.

  NTPC

 Closing above 215 will confirm rounding bottom formation and then price will hit 233 levels.

 HIND UNI LEVER

 Buy stop loss 218 targets 240 and 297. Inverted Head and Shoulder pattern to help.

Long-term, Value Investing: What matters and What Doesn't

Long-term and value investing has nothing to do with…

• Whether or not how many times your stock is featured on biz channels.
• Weather of not how newspapers, pink papers give research report on it or not.
• Neither if your stock is recommended by brokerage houses or so-called star analysts.
• How frequently your company comes in lime-light for product launches, conferences, corporate actions and so on.
• The increase or decrease in volume of shares on stock exchanges.
• Weather FIIs are buying or selling and MF managers are adding or dumping it.
• Weather no one is giving a tip about it.
• Your neighbour or broker has never heard about the company. (Many never heard or know about P&G, Gillette, Wyeth etc.)
• How frequently it announces corporate actions such as bonuses, splits, etc.

…But yes it matters…

• That you have bought it at discounted valuation than what it is actually worth. It could be discount to assets, order book, cash-flow, EBIDTA etc.
• You have measure your margin of safety.
• That you have analyzed the 5 to 10 year financial results for the company.
• The management is reliable, competitive and corporate governance is robust.
• That you have determined to hold some piece of the company’s business (shares) for certain minimum longer duration.
• That you have set your minimum realistic annual compounded return target from this investment.
• That you have gone farther than checking merely EPS, PE and debt-equity ratio; and thought of Cash EPS, working capital per share, long term viability of the sector, economic moat of the company’s business.

7 Habits Of A Successful Trader

             Successful trading requires more than fluke or luck. Luck is always there, always was and always will remain. One shouldn't give more than 10% weightage to luck or what I say better word for us "Random result of Uncertainty". So the rule is to learn and grow. I have also mentioned earlier to cut the competition. There are suckers, brokers, intelligent people, investors, traders, jobbers, arbitrageurs, insiders, promoters, punters, fiis, mfs, and now even quant machines rivaling you in this game of market. You can easily outsmart the fools and the sucker class. They either don't remain in the market for long time. Yes, more keep on coming. But you will have to come across the competition from the above-mentioned non-sucker and smart class of participants.

VIX (Volatility Index) SPIKE IN USA AND INDIA

She is market editor of CNBC-USA.
"Dow just crashed and see VIX spike!"
We can not rule out a sharp crack in coming days.........."

She is market editor CNBC-India..
"Sensex just crashed and see VIX spike!"
"We can not rule out a sharp crack in coming days..............."



FIRST LADY IS TALKING RIGHT NOW AND SECOND WILL TALK SAME ON MONDAY,

WE ARE HAPPY BECAUSE MY CLIENTS ARE SHORT IN NIFTY AND BUY SBI PUT.....................

Believe It Or Not. But to whome?

              Freinds, in the past also we have seen totally contradicting statements and views from various officials and personalities of public. While on the other times their opinions or datas differ drastically or to good such extent  that a forget a lay person, not even a scholar could decipher for any conclusion for what it is or could be meant. This presents not just the irony of the informatoin overload world we live but also breaks down the myth that opinions and access to personalities, scholars, governments and people, institutes or organisations means resulting in an improvement in understanding and so on; which doesn't seem to be the case at all. We will talk later about how media (news channels, papers) reports/adjusts/states ditto news to market movement if it is up or down. Till then read between the clouds...

Trading PUT OPTIONS: SBI, HDFC, HERO HONDA---Two Day's Profits Rs.9900

For last five days we have been warning our members for a breather and weakness in markets in our SMS services.

We clearly told and anticipated this.

SO WHAT COULD HAVE WE DONE FOR PROFITING FROM OUR OPINION?

Clearly it’s got to be a SMART THING!

Following is the details of PUT TRADING we executed and our members made money:

SBI PUT Option:

Strike price-2000.

Bought@16.

Sold@26.

Lot Size-132.

HDFC PUT Option:

Strike price-1900.

Bought@17.

Sold@42.

Lot size-200.

HERO HONDA PUT Option:

Strike price-1900.

Bought@16.

Sold@34.

Lot size-200.

Total profit of Rs.9900 in Two Days!

Gokul Refoils: Told you not to miss---Now crossed TARGET of 72!!!!!

Just click on the below link where Boldly RECOMMENDED to buy Gokul Refoils Ltd. And Gave TARGET OF 72....Which is now Crossed and already zoomed to 75+ levels.

http://www.meghainvestments.com/2010/03/gokul-refolis.html

Shalibhadra Finance Ltd.-This counter could double from current 25 levels

Remember in gokul refoils i was barking to buy from 61 levels and my target  was 72/74 what happen you knows now just to day forget everything and spend 5 minutes to read the story i expect stock will double from current levels.






Shalibhadra Finance Ltd.
BSE code -511754

Change in Shareholding pattern
September 2009		December 2009
Amidhara agencies	4.98%	Amidhara agencies	4.98%
Amrut credit	2.04%	Amrut credit	2.04%
Minal agencies	3.11%	Minal agencies	3.11%
		New Shareholders
		Choudhry global	3.97
		Upsurge ind	1.91
		Reeta	1.64
		Thacker jawahar	1.10

Just see the difference. The persons who  were shareholders in september 2009 were also  in December 2009 but 4 new shareholders also bought hefty 8.62% in company. Why?


My chart indicates 100% something big news will come out either bonus or take over news.

From current levels of 25 i expect stock will double and will hit 50/55 levels.
Just check the chart below:
The stock has formed double top and now correction will create handle and will complete cup and handle formation -don't buy if you don't have patience.

                        

Words of Value Investing Wisdom: download book

Overconfidence

This word is repeatedly used. And everyone seems to know it's bad. And that 'It has disadvantages to be overconfident'. But how many of them really doesn't fall in this very mistake? Few.
Overconfidence in markets can wipe you out or close the doors of opportunity for you forever. Confidence is Great. Overconfidence is Worst. One learned man even said to the extent that overconfidence is anonyme to confidence rather than non-confidence. So how to make out overconfidence from confidence? Is there a think difference line or a huge mental exercise that it takes? Some of the signs of overconfidence can be very easy to identify.
Many times holding into losing positions or adding to them is a sure sign of overconfidence rather than heuristic described as loss-aversion in behavioural finance.
When a trader makes some money by fluke and start believing he can and profit without any trading system, charts, risk management etc. then he's surely an overconfident.
One thing is clear and holy-truth that Overconfidence is a Guaranteed path to oncoming disaster.
Ultimately overconfidence results in loses and then frustration, then in blaming other and markets for it.

FMCG bets

Godrej Consumer Products Ltd.
This Godrej group company is in news for on a shopping spree while buying foreign fmcg businesses.
The stocks seems to have gotten head and shoulder breakout.
A traders SL should be 255, while going long for a TGT of upto 335.


Hindustan Unilever Ltd.

This FMCG Major counter is under pressure. Don't know why? It did made a high around 300 price mark. Now also trading at attractive valuation for Investors.
Anyway, Traders Go Long with SL of 218 and a TGT of 240-297 with patience.
Inverted H&S Breakout to help.

Sugar complete first minor impulse down wave

Dow Jones -UBS Sugar Index:  First minor impulse down wave seems complete. Prices break trend channel resistances. We could see a corrective structure up now till key resistances at 149/156/189 levels from current 137 levels.


i expect all round recovery in sugar futures across the world market and also see indian sugar stock to blast.
from 145 levels i am telling my clients to buy bajaj hind from last one month with stop loss of 132 and see it has not broken my target is 200.