May 31, 2017

L&T FINANCE HOLDINGS LTD. Long Term & Multi Bagger Recommendation

L&T FINANCE HOLDINGS LTD
Recommendatino : Buy
View : Short to Mid Term
Strategy : Buy at CMP and on Dips
CMP : bse spot 128.50

Commentary :
The stock is an L&T Group company. Right now financial services sector is the flavour of the month so on short term basis as well as for the whole of this entire bull market as it clearly seems.
The stock remained sideways since its listing for 5 years before it  finallly broke out above 100 levels in late 2016. It is definitely going up and could double in next 12 months. We expect the stock to continue to rise but follow up corporate actions will require as a boost, that is why for longer term investors we suggest to buy at CMP as well as willingness to buy around 100 levels.
For very long term investors like 5 years and above, this price will give 5-10 multiple return.

You can see the weekly chart how the stock has moved in last 6 years.

Subscribe to www.meghainvestments.com for proper buy/sell, Stoploss, Target Levels and timely updates regarding actual trading in the recommended stocks. 
This is only a brief commentary, you can contact us for complete research, analysis and view on the stock.

May 28, 2017

Top 10 factors which are likely to chart direction for market this coming week

NEWS FOR NEXT WEEK
The Nifty created history this week as it climbed 9,600 and hit a fresh record high of 9,604.90. It rallied 1.7 percent for the week ended May 26 to close at 9,595.
As D-Street celebrated 3 years of Modi-led government in office, the index regained strength to take out key resistance levels this past week. The index is now trading in uncharted territory.

The S&P BSE Sensex rallied 564 points this week to hit a record closing high of 31,028.21. It hit an intraday high of 31,074.07.
However, there was some correction in the broader market. The S&P BSE Midcap index closed 124 points lower, while the S&P BSE Smallcap Index ended 140 points down.
Sensex attaining 31,000 level is one more milestone in this up move with the latest rise of 1000 points taking just one month. Sensex grew 20% from its recent bottom in just 5 months. We seem to be headed higher with or without some intermittent corrections thrown in.
The market might tread with caution or consolidate in the coming week after a sharp rally. But, the long-term trend still remains intact. Investors are advised to use any dip to accumulate quality stocks and not bother about valuation too much.
People believe that valuations have run up too high and earnings are yet to catch. This is when they look at the issue with historical perspective and low PE multiples in a low growth and high-interest era. But the new normal of PE will be much higher because PE starts with reciprocal of interest rate and you add growth and reduce risk. That is the theoretical framework but as interest rates head down, PE multiples will get stabilised at a higher level.

Below are the list of ten factors which are likely to chart direction for the market this coming week
Nearly 2,000 companies will report Q4 results this week
As much as 1,850 companies are scheduled to report their results from May 29 to May 31 this coming week which includes prominent names like BPCL, Coal India, NTPC, L&T, Power Finance Corporation, Power Grid Corporation of India, Hindalco Industries and Mahindra & Mahindra.
GDP data for Q4
The government will unveil GDP figured for the quarter ended on May 31, Wednesday.
Gross domestic product (GDP) had grown marginally lower, at 7 percent, in the third quarter of FY17, down from 7.4 percent in the second quarter.
India’s economy is expected to grow at 7.1 percent in the fourth quarter of FY17, as remonetisation has gained steam, Icra said in a note earlier this week.
Global investment bank, Nomura in a note said that the new series for industrial production and wholesale prices suggest that the GDP numbers for the financial year 2016-17 could be revised up from 6.7 per cent to 7.4 per cent.
The Central Statistical Office (CSO) revised India’s wholesale price index (WPI) and industrial production (IP) series last week, changing the base year to 2011-12 (from 2004-05).
May Auto Sales numbers
Four and two-wheeler stocks will be in focus in the coming as auto sale numbers for the month of May will be announced starting from June 1. Stocks like Maruti Suzuki, Hero MotoCorp, Bajaj Auto and Ashok Leyland will be on the watch list.
India Macro Data
Market Economics will announce the India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for May 2017 on Thursday, 1 June 2017. The Nikkei Manufacturing PMI in India stood at 52.5 in April 2017, the same as in March.
Eye on Monsoon
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has assessed that conditions are favourable for the South-West monsoon to enter South Kerala and the North-Eastern States on May 30-31.
The arrival of monsoon rains and its progress will be closely watched. The South-West monsoon is likely to make its onset over South Kerala during May 30-31, around the time earlier predicted by India Met Department (IMD.
The June-September South-West monsoon is critical for the country's agriculture because a considerable part of the country's farmland is dependent on the rains for irrigation.
Global Cues
On the global front, China Caixin manufacturing PMI data for May 2017 will be announced on Thursday, 1 June 2017. US Market Manufacturing PMI for the month of May 2017 is slated to be released on Thursday, 1 June 2017. US nonfarm payrolls data for May 2017 is scheduled to be released on Friday, 2 June 2017.
BSE to delist 61 companies from May 29
Leading stock exchange BSE (Bombay Stock Exchange) will delist as many as 61 firms from its platform from 29 May as they have remained suspended for more than 13 years.
Among the firms to be delisted are Binaca Synthetic Resins, Canvay Chemicals, Chetak Spintex, Global Industries, Karan Finance, Mahendra Cements, Manav Pharma, Maruti Organics, Rams Transformers, Regent Chemicals, Rohini Strips, Sarla Credit & Securities, Sunrise Zinc, Thapar Exports and Vishal Chairs.
PSP Projects to list on bourses on May 29
PSP Projects IPO was oversubscribed 8.58 times, with the qualified institutional buyers (QIBs) portion getting oversubscribed 8.38 times, non-institutional investors 10.39 times and retail investors’ portion 6.47 times.
It had fixed a price band of Rs. 205—210 per share for the offer, which was open from May 17—19.
Technical Outlook
The Nifty had formed a bullish wedge pattern on the hourly chart over the last few sessions, which had broken out on the upside in the last session.
On Friday, the index witnessed a sharp follow through on the upside. Investors are advised to hold their long positions as long as Nifty hold 9,300-9,340.
On the way up the all-time high of 9532 has been surpassed and the benchmark index tapped at the 9600 mark. In terms of wave structure, Nifty formed fourth wave correction, which got over at 9341 & it is now forming the fifth leg of an impulse on the upside.

On the weekly chart, Nifty has formed a bullish outside bar, which reinforces the uptrend. Thus there is scope for Nifty to extend beyond the short term target of 9655 & head towards the medium-term target of 9,850. On the flip side, 9,340-9,300 will continue to act as a major support area.

May 13, 2017

Stock Recommendation Of The Day : Polaris Consulting & Services Limited. Buy/Sell/Hold? Short - Mid Term View 13 May 2017 For Trading Positional Technical Analysis Recommendation

Stock Of The Day : Polaris Consulting & Services Limited

CMP : 212
Recommendation: Buy
Targets : ?
Stoploss: ?
Duration: ?


Polaris Consulting & Services Limited, erstwhile known as Polaris Financial Technology Ltd will soon probably again change name to Virtusa Polaris, as now it majority stake has been acquired by Virtusa, a NASDAQ listed global IT firm.
In brief, the fundamentals are not bad, the sales has been considerably high and profitability has been steady. Can't say that it is making tons of money, but is neither losing it.

Technical picture is also not so gloomy. The stock price has been steady and less violent between 50 and 200 range which is not too much for a midcap/smallcap category stock such as Polaris.
Looking at the monthly chart the stock is trying to come out with a long underperformance and almost 15 years of range ceiling of 200. Above 220, we expect the stock to give fast 30-50% and eventually double in short time after that.

The merger will give rise to delisting hypes which will only fuel the stock rally and arbitrage and special situation funds to get on the band wagon.
We recommend a pure technical and situational buy with constant monitoring and swing trading.
Right entry time is crucial for trading in stocks like this.

Relevant Charts are given for your reference. Click on the charts for bigger view.

Subscribe to www.meghainvestments.com for proper buy/sell, Stoploss, Target Levels and timely updates regarding actual trading in the recommended stocks. 

This is only a brief commentary, you can contact us for complete research, analysis and view on the stock.
Views on stocks and market as a whole may change at any time, on account of changes in various types of macro related factors, company specific factors and such other news, events. So please do not hesitate to contact us in case you are following any of our research.

May 10, 2017

Best Forecasting About All 35 Listed Bank Stocks For 2017, 2018 and Ahead: Is A Phenomenal Rally Beginning Or Just Another Technical Move ?

Best Forecasting About All 35 Listed Bank Stocks For 2017, 2018 and Ahead: Is A Phenomenal Rally Beginning Or Just Another Technical Move ?


We had prepared this research report way back in 2016 for our private clients.
Register on our website www.meghainvestments.com and get this report in email.

Is the move in past one year in banking stocks a concrete move?
Are banking stocks preparing themselves for new bull market after having a rally in 2009, 2010?
Majority Banking Stocks our of the 35 Listed Banks, especially the Public Sector Ones are in a classic bear market since many years. Are they coming out of it? Are they ready to rise 2-3 or 5 fold, even more in time to come?
Are the fundamentals of Indian banking sector improving as a whole?
Are the technical indicators on the charts look to warrant a very good upmove and a strong building base or consolidation and end of bear market?

Can all stock rise if banking sector starts to gather investors' attraction?
Which stocks will rise the most and which will lag behind?

Is this the best time to enter or wait for dips?
Will public sector bank stocks outperform the private sector banking stocks in next two years?

KNOW THE ANSWER TO ALL IN OR 'ALL 35 BANKING REPORT' which is giving you a very short, simple and smart as well as clear cut view on the banking sector as a whole and for respective individual stocks.

 Register on our website www.meghainvestments.com and get this report in email.


May 9, 2017

Stock Recommendation Of The Day : V-GUARD INDUSTRIES LTD. Buy/Sell/Hold? Short - Mid Term View 9 April 2017 For Trading Positional Technical Analysis Recommendation

Stock Recommendation Of The Day : 

V-GUARD INDUSTRIES LTD

Buy/Sell/Hold? Short - Mid Term View 9 April 2017 For Trading Positional Technical Analysis Recommendation

The Stock has been in continuous up move since April 2016, about one year.
It is not without reason however. The company has emerged as a huge brand in electric appliances and the sales of the company has been growing at a higher than industry average CAGR.

The valuation of the equity share of the company is also cheaper looking at a 30 Rs plus EPS in terms of Price Earnings Ratio.

The company is expanding into new product lines in its sector.
The stock price look very much promising to even double from here.
For swing trader, appropriate entry and SL level is required depending on their entry.
For Anyone wanting to take position can consider averaging around 150-180 in case it comes down in any unforeseen market correction. Stock up move is very much given with a target of 280 in 30 days and 400 in about less than 25 weeks.


Relevant Charts are given for your reference. Click on the charts for bigger view.

Subscribe to www.meghainvestments.com for proper buy/sell, Stoploss, Target Levels and timely updates regarding actual trading in the recommended stocks. 

This is only a brief commentary, you can contact us for complete research, analysis and view on the stock.
Views on stocks and market as a whole may change at any time, on account of changes in various types of macro related factors, company specific factors and such other news, events. So please do not hesitate to contact us in case you are following any of our research.

May 1, 2017

Market Week Ahead : Nifty To Touch 9400 or Consolidate? 8 Factors that may decide that

Market News
Market Week Ahead : Nifty To Touch 9400 or Consolidate? 8 Factors that may decide that :

The market hit record highs in the passing week (Sensex at 30,184.22 and Nifty at 9,367.15 intraday) on better-than-expected earnings (by cement, auto and midcap banks) and likely PSU banks' recapitalisation. Global factors like easing of political risk in Eurozone post favourable French elections results, and expectations of US tax reforms also boosted market sentiment. The Nifty gained 2 percent (at 9,304.05) during the week despite consolidation in later part of the week due to extended weekend and mixed global cues.
On the monthly basis, the market continued northward journey for fourth consecutive months. In fact, the year so far has been good, with Nifty posting 13.66 percent gains year-to-date (up 1.42 percent in April, 3.31 percent in March, 3.72 percent in February and 4.6 percent in January).

Such a stellar performance is unlikely to continue in the coming truncated week as well as in May. With expensive valuations at current level, the market has to consolidate more before moving towards another psychological 9,400 mark on the Nifty and volatility index also indicated the same trend, experts say.
The market will remain shut on May 1 (Monday) — Maharashtra Day.
They expect minor correction and every dip is likely to be bought. Major correction, according to them, is unlikely due to favourable domestic factors like consistent buying by domestic institutional investors despite FIIs' selling, better-than-expected earnings so far (indicating faster recovery in FY18) and stability in economic reforms after recent state & municipal elections. Lower crude oil prices also played supportive role for the market.
Following the recent run up, Indian VIX i.e. volatility Index, has reached the lower end of the range currently placed at 10.87. As VIX has a tendency to revert back to mean, a reading so low warrants a rise in the volatility in the coming sessions, which could lead to minor corrections.
While movement at the Index level could remain muted, stock specific movement on account of the ongoing earnings season could be seen, he adds.
The option data continued to suggest a strong support at 9000 with an open interest of 44 lakh shares in put options. On the upside, 9500 has the highest open interest of 42 lakh shares in call options.
We expect some volatility in global market also due to its influence on next week's Federal Reserve policy. Currently, domestic market is amongst the expensive market in the world with a P/E of 18x on FY18 basis, he says.
According to experts, the only negative factor that can stall the rally (in near term) would be the crisis between US and North Korea due to missile tests by the latter. If that intensified then the Nifty can break 9,000 level, they feel.
Here are eight factors that will chart market direction next week:
Earnings
In the coming week, we will enter in the second month of March quarter earnings season. ICICI Bank (on May 3) and HDFC (May 4) earnings would be important ones to watch out for.
Bharat Financial will be closely watched not only for its earnings but also for likely announcement related to merger & acquisition.
Dabur and Bharat Financial will announce quarterly earnings on May 1.
On May 2, Marico, RBL Bank, Inox Leisure, Kansai Nerolac and Shriram City Union Finance will release their earnings report while ICICI Bank, Ajanta Pharma, DHFL, Alembic Pharma, Agro Tech Foods, L&T Technology, Tribhovandas Bhimji Zaveri and Zenotech Laboratories will come out with results on May 3.
HDFC, Emami, Exide Industries, Apollo Tyres, Godrej Properties, HCC, IIFL, Greaves Cotton, L&T Finance Holdings, L&T Infotech, Bank of Maharashtra, MCX, MRF, Oberoi Realty and Tata Communications will announce numbers May 4.
On May 5, Equitas Holdings, GE Shipping, Monsanto India, NIIT Technologies, Sanofi, Shankara Building Products, Shoppers Stop, SPARC and Transformers and Rectifiers are expected to declare earnings for the quarter ended March 2017.
D-Mart operator Avenue Supermarts will announce its earnings on May 6.
Auto sales
April sales data by auto companies will also be announced next week. Hence, Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors, Ashok Leyland, Mahindra & Mahindra, Escorts, Hero Motocorp, Bajaj Auto, Eicher Motors and TVS Motor Company will be in focus.
Passenger vehicle segment will continue its growth momentum and outperform the auto industry growth in April while 2-wheeler and commercial vehicle volumes are expected to decline YoY and MoM, Motilal Oswal says.
It further says channel check suggests, retail off-take in 2-wheeler segment is expected to remain weak followed by pre-buy of BS-3 vehicles in the previous month.
Technical Outlook
Technical analysts expect 9200 will act as a support level in near term and on the upside, 9400 will be major resistance.
The maximum downside levels to be watched for this correction is around 9180-9150 for the next 1-2 weeks and Nifty could eventually bounce back and could register new all-time highs, he feels.
Macro ecomonic data
Nikkei Markit Manufacturing PMI will be announced on May 2 and Services PMI on May 4.
Manufacturing sector activity jumped to a five-month high in March at 52.5 (from 50.7 in February) with increased production and new orders while services PMI rose to 51.5 in March (up from 50.3 in previous month).
Stocks in Focus
Coming Monday, Ambuja Cements, Raymond, Uttam Galva, Kitex Garments, Navin Fluorine, Deepak Nitrite, Kesoram Industries and RPG Life Sciences will react their earnings that announced after market hours on Friday.
Other stocks that will react to earnings would be Dabur, Bharat Financial, JSW Energy, Indowind Energy, Astra Micro Wave and Morepen Labs which are expected to declare results over the long weekend.
UP sugar stocks will be in focus on Monday as CNBC-TV18 reports say UP government has asked sugar mills will pay 15 percent interest on cane arrears for 2016-17.
Dr Reddy's Labs, Aurobindo Pharma and Strides Shasun will react to USFDA actions.
US Food & Drug Administration has issued Form 483 with 11 observations for Dr Reddy's plant 3 at Bachupally and completed inspection of Strides Shasun's oral dosage unit in Puducherry with zero 483 observations while sources told that Aurobindo unit IV injectables unit received 6 observations from the US health regulator.
Thermax may react positively to its export contracts worth USD 157 million received in Africa.
Tata Motors will also be in focus as US auto sales data is expected to release on May 3.
Liquidity
Domestic institutional investors so far have been supportive to the market as according to provisional data, they have bought more than Rs 9,000 crore worth of shares in April.
At the same time, foreign institutional investors were net sellers to the tune of more than Rs 2,000 crore as per actual data available on the SEBI. However, they had made highest ever monthly buying worth Rs 33,781 crore in March.
Corporate Action
Beardsell share price will adjust on May 4 for its bonus issue (in the proportion of one share for every five shares held) and sub-division of face value (from Rs 10 to Rs 2 each).
Mishtann Foods will consolidate face value of its share price at Rs 10 from Re 1.
Global Cues
Globally experts will closely watch geopolitical concerns like stand-off between US and North Korea due to missile tested by the latter.
The outcome of two-day Federal Reserve policy meeting on May 3 and US jobs report for April on May 5 will also be in focus. Economists do not expect any change in policy rate but the focus would be on indications for further rate hikes.
Europe's Manufacturing PMI for April and Bank of Japan's core CPI will be announced on May 2 while Europe's Q1 GDP and US Markit Composite & Services PMI data will be released on May 3.

Europe's Markit composite and services PMI and US' Q1 non-farm productivity data is expected on May 4.