Jan 9, 2019

Eicher Motors - Investment View


EICHER MOTORS – INVESTMENT VIEW CMP-20200
This company has been performing extra ordinarily in terms of all the financial parameters of growth and return. The stock is also rewarding the astounding performance of the company likewise by rising continuously and becoming one of the best performing shares in Indian stock market history and wealth generation category.

It got beaten up from its recent highs of 33500 to 20200 levels as of this writing.
The price to earning ratio is 25 which makes it an attractive buy for an investor and we are saying this because a company growing at such a pace as Eicher, will command this much valuation.
We believe an easy return from this levels down few months.
Pls check out the weekly chart for reference. However the call has been from a fundamental analysis perspective.

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Dec 24, 2018

DOW JONES sold off badly as expected


DOW JONES sold off badly as expected

In our past market updates, we have been warning about the imminent upcoming sell off in USA Dow Jones index, the resistance of India and other EMs to bow down and follow it on the down side as well as how they will not be able to cop with a heavy sell off in the same. While the Dow Jones decline was given, and the Indian markets touched their upper end of the range that it has been trading for some time; those in knowledge of the pattern made good money on both up and down side.
As of writing this Indian stock markets are yet to open and on Friday DOW JONES shed another 500 points, Asian markets are about mixed, and SGX NIFTY also not a lot indicative with flattish or non-indicative bias. We maintain sell on rise and buy on dips with stock specific movement.   
Read recent articles for more insight as the structure of markets and present trading strategy remain same more or less.
We do not believe that the cut in GST rates will have a great deal of impact in view of the monthly movement of markets.
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Dec 21, 2018

Market Review As On 12.00 PM, 21 December, 2018, NIFTY-50, SENSEX-30


Market Review As On 12.00 PM, 21 December, 2018, NIFTY-50, SENSEX-30

Ultimately, the Indian stock markets bowed down to the mighty US DOW JONES INDEX; at least what it looks like right now.
We have been talking about how the resistance showed by Indian stock markets along with its Asian counterparts, against US Equity markets decline, with low volumes and unsustainable news flow, should not be taken for granted and must be traded with care and caution. Our yesterday’s blog titled ‘beginning of reversal from short term uptrend…’ also cautioned about the same and explored the possibilities of further up moves in Ems without the support of the DMs esp.USA, and found that it is very difficult.
Its not always a bull market when the markets go up few hundred or few percentage points for few days or weeks and so is true on the other side as well. We have to take into consideration the variety of factors.
We have been maintaining more of a sideways and range bound type market along with most of prominent analysts out there, and not arguing about a crash or continuous rally. Pls read previous articles to find tips on how to trade this type of market.
The NIFTY-50 opened gap down about 100 points, and then gave up 30 more points as of this writing. The markets which were very strong against the odds fell so much on open is an important technical sign, and it will remain to be seen how the indices ends. At the same time, pls keep in mind that we are still not advocating ‘sell all’ mode but trade with strategies and mindset that is fit for range-bound, sideways type low volume market.
We talked about 200 odd points correction, so the NIFTY-50 move towards 10700-750 which is also its lower end of the range of daily chart and 200DMA on its important hourly chart, should be traded.
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Dec 20, 2018

HINDUSTAN AERONAUTICS LTD. - 785- Multibagger & Value Buying Medium To Long Term Investment Indian Stock Markets


HINDUSTAN AERONAUTICS LTD. - 785

This is a State Owned profit making defence manufacturer with sound fundamentals and good valuations at current price of Rs.-785, we believe it to give multibagger returns in next 5 yrs.
In light of the increasing defence spend by India and focus on manufacturing in India as well, this firm is likely to gain higher growth than its past years.
In a recent report of Stokholm International Peace Research Institute, HAL has been named among top-100 global defence firms and ranked it 37th in emerging producers list along with other 3 Indian firms including Bharat Dyanamics which is also listed.
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MRPL- Trading View


MRPL- Trading View

All our recent recommendations seem to have performed very well, even in the face of the mild intraday corrections that we are witnessing due to resistance levels.
The decline in crude oil prices and almost 50% crashes in the OMC stocks have warranted a good bounce back in IOC, BPCL, Chennai Petro, ONGC share prices. MRPL can be traded on the upside with 80 plus TGT. CMP is 75.
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Beginning of Reversal from Short Term Up Trend Or Just Breather at Resistance : NIFTY-50 View


Beginning of Reversal from Short Term Up Trend Or Just Breather at Resistance : NIFTY-50 View

In our past week updates, we have been constantly saying that to trade successfully first you need to understand what type of market you are in, like bullish uptrend, bearish downtrend, or sideways and so on. Suppose, we are in a sideways/pullback kind of market, then we need to decide how to trade it. There are different approaches and styles to trade these different types of markets. Many traders trade only one type of market and stay away in other types of market, while some all-season traders or ‘every-day’ traders trade in all type of markets.
Anyways, lets come to market analysis, we yesterday market could give gap up above 11000 points nifty-50 index, but yesterday itself it kind of touched that level, and came off later on. However the index didn’t closed in DOJI pattern, but opened gap down/lower today morning which makes it vulnerable to making a very reliable evening star pattern which could either send market in a good decline of 200 points of more or even reversal to its six month old downtrend or more possibly just the sideways market. We believe the later more probably.
The NIFTY 50 INDEX is right now at 10900 and a slow decline of 200 points as mentioned in one of the scenario is possible, however in that case the midcap rally and individual stock outperformance may continue as repeatedly mentioned in last many updates. Looking at the response of the markets to last many sell offs in USA markets, the ‘evening star pattern’ backed sell off and revert to the 2017H2 correction cum bear market phase does not seem a lot probably, however we should be ready with all options when one is trading in the market where best brains of the world come to make money.
Read previous posts for further references.


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Dec 19, 2018

NIFTY 50 INDEX – Gap up can happen 11100


NIFTY 50 INDEX – Gap up can happen 11100

The Indian stock markets have shown good resistance in respect with the defeat of the ruling BJP in three states ahead of the next year LS elections. The crude oil prices have softened, easing the burden on the central government fiscal front, the export – import balance of payment front and the economy as a whole which uses the petroleum produces at every step of commerce. The market has also been digesting all DOW JONES falls along with its Asian counterparts. There is also lack of bad macroeconomic data, result season is not going on and many macro data is coming positive. With new RBI governor appointed from goodbook of PMO has also removed the newsflow of RBI and Govt. tensions.


The market can again get into sell off move if global markets start to sell of on the back of huge panic selling and sell off in USA DOW JONES markets. However, the Indian LS Elections is not a trigger right now as it is still far away many months before that we will see a budget from the incumbent government.
The nifty 50 index can open gap up in absence of any unforeseen bad news to around 11100 which is currently at 10950 levels. If this happens then we may see further immediate upside or possible consolidation, in both cases we are bound to see the continuation of the midcap rally and individual stock specific decent upmove in frontline stocks as well. Remember, this rally is not supported by good volumes so take profits and keep mentality of getting in and out. At the same time it must be kept in mind that 10950-11000 is the short-mid term resistance level and if today it closes around the present level and makes a DOJI candlestick formation and opens gap down or goes down significanly after opening flat or up then it will make a bearish pattern right at the resistance level, then we will again fall into a sideways trade decline and possibly a follo up sell of may be on the back of the global markets fall.

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Market View and Trading Signals : DHFL, SAIL, YESBANK, GRASIM,


Market View and Trading Signals

As per our last review market has been in a range and not given any break out. Also, the midcap rally and individual stock price movement on the upside has maintained its momentum.
Below are some stock trading views for December, and January depending on weekly, monthly trading and depending on wheather you trade in options or futures of stock cash delivery.
DHFL : Cmp-225, Buy Dec or Jan Call Options or Delivery.
YESBANK: Cmp- 181, Buy Dec or Jan Call Options or Delivery.
SAIL : Cmp-54, Buy Dec or Jan Call Options or Delivery.
May other trading stocks recommended in earlier posts and to paid clients. Good time for intraday and weekly trading with quite market.


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This is only a brief analysis and not a complete research report.
The given views are subject to change depending on changing market and global economic conditions. Become member to benefit from market and individual stock moves. Become member to get alerts for buy and sell with targets. Please read complete disclosure, disclaimer on our website.


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Dec 17, 2018

Indusind Bank – Short Term View


Indusind Bank – Short Term Buy

Current Price is Rs.1625.
A trader can get good rise of 100-200 points.


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This is only a brief analysis and not a complete research report.
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Stock Market Nifty Sensex Dow Jones View – As On 17 December 2018


Stock Market Nifty Sensex Dow Jones View – As On 17 December 2018

We continue to predict a sideways market with sell on rise and buy on dips as well as individual stock price movement type trading market. Earlier also we have said that during the past month’s pull back many stocks which were hammered in the erstwhile sell off for as much as upto 50%; have made base and are likely to give 10-20% up move in the sideways, range bound type of scenario with low volume market participation and mutual fund buying where there is lack of speculative interest.
These stocks include stocks like SAIL, BHEL, Wockhardt, Adani Ports, Yes Bank, DHFL, and others.
One thing to notice is the sharp fall over last few days in crude oil prices of almost 30% to 50 USD per barrel from 75, and the easing tension on US-China trade war front. This may help a year end rally in already battered European, and Asian markets, while it is possible that USA markets may continue to remain sideways and non-eventful with bouts of volatility with no significant trendy movement. We are anyways already seeing a decoupling between the all three wiz.USA, Europesn, and Asian markets regard with the movements when we saw Asia markets perform better many days even though there was 500 points or more decline in USA markets the day ahead. So basically the trades are short term and a lot of portfolio shuffling is happening across the global investors groups.


For best services for traders and investors in Indian stock market for multibagger stock calls and intraday stock, nifty, stock futures, options trading calls visit our website www.meghacapital.in

Dec 13, 2018

NIFTY 50 INDEX – CMP – 10800- A Very Brief Simple Review


NIFTY 50 INDEX – CMP – 10800

The nifty index is looking overbought for the time being and we believe its time to exit longs and possibly enter short positions, it can be done by shorting calls which is best way, and other relatively pricey method is buying puts.
At the same time we maintain that the market is in sideways, low volatile, non trendy, low volume, range bound phase, and likely to remain so with only some intraday ups and downs with more and more individual stock moves. The reaction of markets to RBI governor resignation and the slack performance of ruling BJP party in 5 state assembly elections does not say anything but reinforce the same fact. We believe the oil and gas and some other beaten down sector would benefit with the sideways market and may rise along with some other beaten down NBFC stocks. The market may rise only due to lack of short selling, and will tank due to lack of buying as stocks hits resistance in due course.
In case market gaps up tomorrow due to oversold European and Asian markets bounce back and non negative reaction to BJP losses in election, then we may see 11000 nifty level and domestic bout of stock buying for few weeks with same range bound non momentum trend.


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YES BANK LTD - Medium Term View - Stock Recommendations - Buy -Sell or Hold ?


YES BANK LTD – CMP - 185
This stock is presently stuck amidst huge turbulent newsflow including rift between promoters, RBI intervention regarding the same, consequent resignations of board members, RBI regulatory notices and so on. The stock saw support around 200 from a life high of 400 in 2 months, after it fell below that level, but soon resumed its decline and tanked to 150 on a bad day, only to rebound to 180 plus levels in next few days.
The stock is trading at a very attractive PE ratios of 10. The market commentators say that it’s a corporate bank and not a consumer bank like HDFC Bank, so it is not commanding the premium like it and so on. However we believe the stock’s fair value is above 250 and this level is very very attractive to buy for a one year period or more. Yes bank is not closing down and is here to stay. Buy on all dips. All the bad news is out discounted, now on only good news is expected. At worst, the stock may go down again around 150 but as we saw it has great support at that level. You need to be fearless when buying a great company at great valuations amidst bad newsflow. It is this type of investments that incur you above alpha returns.

For best services for traders and investors in Indian stock market for multibagger stock calls and intraday stock, nifty, stock futures, options trading calls visit our website www.meghacapital.in

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This is only a brief analysis and not a complete research report.
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PIRAMAL ENTERPRISES LTD - Short Medium Term View


PIRAMAL ENTERPRISES LTD (PEL) – CMP - 2213

This is a great midcap group stock. It has scaled heights of 3200 mark and receded from thereafter on the back of the present 2018 market route, however recovered and stabilized like the rest of the market during the last two months.
The stock took support on weekly chart on its 200 DMA and is hovering around 2000-2100 mark. We believe it to give good return over next 12 months. It’s a good company to invest for financial planning goals portfolio building as well. In a good short-term up move it is expected to surge to its 100 DMA of around 2500. The MACD situation is not as supportive, however the sideways type of market will prove to be non-beta for the stock.

Having said that, the stock being a core midcap, has high beta value and may gyrate along with the benchmark indices and not tend to outperform in the face of underperformance by the rest of the markets. Read different article on overall market outlook for the next 12 months with spanning major events such as the Loksabha elections of 2019 and the USA-China tariff war as well as the USA equity markets hitting a speedbreaker.


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Nov 19, 2018

LIC HOUSING : SHORT TERM TRADING VIEW

LIC HOUSING : SHORT TERM TRADING VIEW

CMP is 455, We expect short term upside of 100 Rupees.
Indian stock markets are in a trading range right now so trade accordingly. Don't buy on rises and sell on declines.
















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Posted on Monday, November 19, 2018 | Categories:

Sep 20, 2018

INDIAN PHARMA SECTOR STOCK MARKET ANALYSIS – IN REGARD WITH NIFTY PHARMA INDEX

INDIAN PHARMA SECTOR STOCK MARKET ANALYSIS – IN REGARD WITH NIFTY PHARMA INDEX  
As you can see in the given Weekly chart, the NIFTY PHARMA INDEX surged almost 100% from about 7000 to about 14000 levels in one year from may 2014 to may 2015, and since then has been languishing and correcting or in a bear market with declines of almost 50% in most frontline stocks excepting individual performances in mostly midcap companies (such as Biocon, Natco etc.).
With its, present upsurge of about last 3-6 months, it has managed to cross 100 DMA swiftly and now come at 200 DMA. Right now around 10500. The RSI situation is also looking oversold. It looks highly unlikely that the Index which has risen 20% in past 4 months . Also, if the index continues its upsurge and go about towards its 14000 peak, then it will almost be like a vertical rise. It will be like covering 3 years of bear market decline in less than one year. Can this happen? Yes, anything can happen in stock market; but for that a lot of things has to happen, that too negative. Lets look at it this way. The pharma Index' outperformance is not absolute and without reason. It is coincided with the underperformance or rather decline in the market and the broader sector during this entire year. The fall in currency has been pivotal in outperformance by this pharma and IT stocks which are so called 'defensive' in stock market terms.  
In conclusion, we can say that, if the broader market continue to languish through the election in 2019 which is still 10 months far, then the 'defensive' card can turn the pharma sector into further outperformance and the investing and speculative buying can boost the index to its life time highs of 14000.  
Now, the actual technical analysis as given here mentioning the weekly chart, is that a bearish evening star pattern has been formed and we might not see continuation of the recent upsurge continue on immediate basis. However, if the index consolidates in this 10000 and 10500 range and then starts fresh upmove then the above forecasting of it scaling peak can not be ruled out.  It should also be kept in mind that pharma has diverse stock selection in terms of largecap, midcap and smallcap. So selection of stocks will also matter in your trading strategy as the index comprise of 10 stocks only. We have already been mentioning to remain upbeat on this sector since last few months and it has played out quite well with proper trading strategy keeping in mind the stock selection and overall market movement.


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Sep 19, 2018

INDIABULLS HOUSING FINANCE – Short Medium Term View

INDIABULLS HOUSING FINANCE – Medium Term View 
The NPA epidemic has spread into some of the private pure play NBFCs and this one is one of them and investors and traders also seem to see it to be topping out and booking out hefty profits incurred during last 2-4 yrs. 
Technically you can see how it is looking breaking down from range of 1400 and 1100 to may be go down below 1000 to 850 levels. With this new currency situation in play and the possible RBI response to that, the whole financial segment is now being looked at as risk area in certainty terms what may or may not happen with rate hike and of course the technicals (benchmark indice moves) and new factor (upcoming election calculations of investors) also factored in. The straight upmove days for broad markets are long over for the 2nd half of FY19 is very clear.
Anyways, the suggested stock can be traded by selling call options, buying put options, selling futures, selling delivery shares, selling intraday levels.


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The given views are subject to change depending on changing market, sector, individual company and global economic conditions. Become member to benefit from market and individual stock moves. Become member to get complete analysis, and alerts for buy and sell with targets.
    

Sep 15, 2018

Indian Stock Market Commentary - 15 Sept 2018

               Last week the market saw high volatility as it was expected from it. However, the later half of the week was expected to be choppy and flat but gave the bounce back which surprised bulls more than the bears as they were not expecting it so fast and swiftly, that too without those moves in biggies like Reliance Industries and the likes which have been moving the markets upwards since last 1000 points of NIFTY Index.
               This week and the previous week starting from the first of this month saw decline without any new news factor in Indian stock markets, which brought down NIFTY from the lifetime high 11750 levels to 11250 levels, about 500 points decline in 10 days time. However the news of PM Modi convening an emergency meeting regarding the situation and announcing possible moves made the oversold market cheer up and rise for last two days of the week and recover half of the correction or 250 points. 
              However we do not think that the friday gap up open can sustain and we might see selling back to that gap in next week as the market discounts the measures announced by PM Modi on monday morning open. When there is no sufficient buying the markets could again get back to backfoot until the friday gap is filled and biggies like Reliance Industries and the IT pack does not again start to lead the markets. The pharmas are good on the way up, but they don't have the fire power to run the benchmark Indices. 
                 The measures announced by the government are mainly targeted to arrest the falling rupee and the impact of which will be not significant on the stock market correction or rally perspective. So, for now the technicals will continue to rule for the short term traders in the equities. 

              It is interesting to understand that the market was rising, for parts of it, due to the fall in the Indian currency, and all the benefits it gives to the exporters, IT firms, the pharma companies; but when the fall became steep and worries about the high inflation due to higher fuel prices (fuel is biggest import of our country) and its domino effects, the Current Account Deficit situation and possible rating downgrades; made the market to look and think the other side of the coin. 
             Having said all these, we believe that the next week is going to be as difficult to trade for bulls esp. as it was the last week, and we do not think that it will be one way ride up again and time to take positional longs is yet little far away. The stock specific moves on both side will continut to be available in specific pharma, IT, banking names. The hetherto leaders like RIL, etc. will continue to languish and not lead the market up. IT is taking a breather and without this rupee fall panic getting in place, it is unlikely we can see buying coming back in it again, they should be waited to be baught when it does, and it will.
          

For best services for traders and investors in Indian stock market for multibagger stock calls and intraday stock, nifty, stock futures, options trading calls visit our website www.meghacapital.in 

Sep 6, 2018

UJJIVAN FINANCE & EQUITAS HOLDINGS – Medium Term View

UJJIVAN FINANCE & EQUITAS HOLDINGS – Medium Term View 
We have been bearish on this sector since its listing. We do not see this sector giving great return (however distinctions should be made between the small finance firms which are active in villages and semi urban vs. those like AU which are active in urban area). As you can see in monthly chart, they are coming down consistently and we maintain a medium to long term sell and/or avoid call on both. Also, being in derivatives segment they can be traded on short side by using options and futures.
    
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50 Superb Quotes For Traders


50 BEST TRADING QUOTES l SUCCESSFUL TRADERS QUOTES
While trading quotes can be taken out of context, and it is crucial to have a full understanding of what the trader meant at the time, they can also give traders important insights. Below are few great quotes for traders.



  • “After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: it never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. I’ve known many [traders] who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level that should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine; that is, they made no real money out of it. [Traders] who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make the big money.” – Jesse Livermore
  • “Sheer will and determination is no substitute for something that actually works.” – Jason Klatt
  • “Everyday I assume every position I have is wrong.” – Paul Tudor Jones
  • “I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime.”
    – Jim Rogers
  • “You can lose your opinion of you can lose your money.” – Adam Grimes
  • “I have two basic rules about winning in trading as well as in life: 1. If you don’t bet, you can’t win. 2. If you lose all your chips, you can’t bet.” – Larry Hite
  • “Cut your losses. Cut your losses. Cut your losses. Then maybe you have a chance.” – Ed Seykota
  • “Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.”
  • “Take your profits or someone else will take them for you.” – J.J. Evans
  • “Beware of trading quotes.” – Andreas Clenow
  • “The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street.” – Jesse Livermore
  • “There is a huge difference between a good trade and good trading.” – Steve Burns

  • “The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”- Warren Buffet
  • “Never let a win go to your head, or a loss to your heart.” – Chuck D.
  • “Some people make shoes. Some people make houses. We make money, and people are willing to pay us a lot to make money for them.” – Monroe Trout
  • “Only The Game , Can Teach You The Game” – Jesse Livermore
  • “Losers average losers.” (Sign in Paul Tudor Jones office).
  • “Trade the market in front of you, not the one you want!” – Scott Redler
  • “Trade What’s Happening…Not What You Think Is Gonna Happen.” – Doug Gregory 
  • “In trading the impossible happens about twice a year.” – Henri M Simoes 
  • “The trend is your friend – until it stabs you in the back with a chopstick.” – 
  • “He who knows when he can fight and when he cannot will be victorious.” – Sun Tzu
  • “Michael Marcus taught me one other thing that is absolutely critical: You have to be willing to make mistakes regularly; there is nothing wrong with it. Michael taught me about making your best judgment, being wrong, making your next best judgment, being wrong, making your third best judgment, and then doubling your money.” – Bruce Kovner
  • “Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading, and always first and foremost protecting your butt.” – Paul Tudor Jones
  • “The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.” – Jesse Livermore
  • “A rising tide lifts all boats over the wall of worry and exposes bears swimming naked.” – 
  • “All you need is one pattern to make a living.” – Linda Raschke
  • “All the math you need in the stock market you get in the fourth grade.” -Peter Lynch
  • “5/1 risk/reward ratio allows you to have a hit rate of 20%. I can actually be a complete imbecile. I can be wrong 80% of time and still not lose.” – Paul Tudor Jones
  • The core problem, however, is the need to fit markets into a style of trading rather than finding ways to trade that fit with market behavior.” – Brett Steenbarger
  • “If you don’t respect risk, eventually they’ll carry you out.” – Larry Hite
  • “The trend is your friend until the end when it bends.” – Ed Seykota
  • “Once you find the system that works for your style/personality and confidence is gained, wash, rinse, repeat over and over again.” – 
  • “Dangers of watching every tick are twofold: overtrading and increased chances of prematurely liquidating good positions” – Jack Schwager
  • “If you can’t take a small loss, sooner or later you will take the mother of all losses.” – Ed Seykota
  • In trading, everything works sometimes and nothing works always.”
  • “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” – John Maynard Keynes
  • “IF YOU WANT TO BE A LEDGE… FIND YOUR EDGE…” – Tom Dante
  • “By living the philosophy that my winners are always in front of me, it is not so painful to take a loss.” – Marty Schwartz
  • “Sometimes the best trade is no trade.” – Anonymous
  • “Hope is bogus emotion that only costs you money.” – Jim Cramer
  • “One day does not make a trend.” – Anonymous
  • “It’s OK to be wrong; it’s unforgivable to stay wrong.” -Martin Zweig
  • “Amateurs think about how much money they can make. Professionals think about how much money they could lose.” – Jack Schwager (paraphrase)
  • “Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold put out a bucket not a thimble.” – Warren Buffet
  • “Don’t fight the Fed.” – Marty Zwieg
  • “You’re going to learn a million things, then you need to forget them all and focus on one.” – 
  • “The obvious rarely happens, the unexpected constantly occurs.” – Jesse Livermore
  • “Stocks are bought not in fear but in hope. They are typically sold out of fear.” – Justin Mamis
  • “Accepting losses is the most important single investment device to insure safety of capital.” – Gerald M. Loeb


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