Sep 15, 2018

Indian Stock Market Commentary - 15 Sept 2018

               Last week the market saw high volatility as it was expected from it. However, the later half of the week was expected to be choppy and flat but gave the bounce back which surprised bulls more than the bears as they were not expecting it so fast and swiftly, that too without those moves in biggies like Reliance Industries and the likes which have been moving the markets upwards since last 1000 points of NIFTY Index.
               This week and the previous week starting from the first of this month saw decline without any new news factor in Indian stock markets, which brought down NIFTY from the lifetime high 11750 levels to 11250 levels, about 500 points decline in 10 days time. However the news of PM Modi convening an emergency meeting regarding the situation and announcing possible moves made the oversold market cheer up and rise for last two days of the week and recover half of the correction or 250 points. 
              However we do not think that the friday gap up open can sustain and we might see selling back to that gap in next week as the market discounts the measures announced by PM Modi on monday morning open. When there is no sufficient buying the markets could again get back to backfoot until the friday gap is filled and biggies like Reliance Industries and the IT pack does not again start to lead the markets. The pharmas are good on the way up, but they don't have the fire power to run the benchmark Indices. 
                 The measures announced by the government are mainly targeted to arrest the falling rupee and the impact of which will be not significant on the stock market correction or rally perspective. So, for now the technicals will continue to rule for the short term traders in the equities. 

              It is interesting to understand that the market was rising, for parts of it, due to the fall in the Indian currency, and all the benefits it gives to the exporters, IT firms, the pharma companies; but when the fall became steep and worries about the high inflation due to higher fuel prices (fuel is biggest import of our country) and its domino effects, the Current Account Deficit situation and possible rating downgrades; made the market to look and think the other side of the coin. 
             Having said all these, we believe that the next week is going to be as difficult to trade for bulls esp. as it was the last week, and we do not think that it will be one way ride up again and time to take positional longs is yet little far away. The stock specific moves on both side will continut to be available in specific pharma, IT, banking names. The hetherto leaders like RIL, etc. will continue to languish and not lead the market up. IT is taking a breather and without this rupee fall panic getting in place, it is unlikely we can see buying coming back in it again, they should be waited to be baught when it does, and it will.
          

Sep 6, 2018

UJJIVAN FINANCE & EQUITAS HOLDINGS – Medium Term View

UJJIVAN FINANCE & EQUITAS HOLDINGS – Medium Term View 
We have been bearish on this sector since its listing. We do not see this sector giving great return (however distinctions should be made between the small finance firms which are active in villages and semi urban vs. those like AU which are active in urban area). As you can see in monthly chart, they are coming down consistently and we maintain a medium to long term sell and/or avoid call on both. Also, being in derivatives segment they can be traded on short side by using options and futures.
    
Become member for complete analysis with charts. Trading analysis is based 80% on technical analysis and 20% on fundamental analysis along with news flow impacts.


The given views are subject to change depending on changing market, sector, individual company and global economic conditions. Become member to benefit from market and individual stock moves. Become member to get complete analysis, and alerts for buy and sell with targets.

50 Superb Quotes For Traders


50 BEST TRADING QUOTES l SUCCESSFUL TRADERS QUOTES
While trading quotes can be taken out of context, and it is crucial to have a full understanding of what the trader meant at the time, they can also give traders important insights. Below are few great quotes for traders.

  • “After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: it never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. I’ve known many [traders] who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level that should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine; that is, they made no real money out of it. [Traders] who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make the big money.” – Jesse Livermore
  • “Sheer will and determination is no substitute for something that actually works.” – Jason Klatt
  • “Everyday I assume every position I have is wrong.” – Paul Tudor Jones
  • “I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime.”
    – Jim Rogers
  • “You can lose your opinion of you can lose your money.” – Adam Grimes
  • “I have two basic rules about winning in trading as well as in life: 1. If you don’t bet, you can’t win. 2. If you lose all your chips, you can’t bet.” – Larry Hite
  • “Cut your losses. Cut your losses. Cut your losses. Then maybe you have a chance.” – Ed Seykota
  • “Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.”
  • “Take your profits or someone else will take them for you.” – J.J. Evans
  • “Beware of trading quotes.” – Andreas Clenow
  • “The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street.” – Jesse Livermore
  • “There is a huge difference between a good trade and good trading.” – Steve Burns

  • “The market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.”- Warren Buffet
  • “Never let a win go to your head, or a loss to your heart.” – Chuck D.
  • “Some people make shoes. Some people make houses. We make money, and people are willing to pay us a lot to make money for them.” – Monroe Trout
  • “Only The Game , Can Teach You The Game” – Jesse Livermore
  • “Losers average losers.” (Sign in Paul Tudor Jones office).
  • “Trade the market in front of you, not the one you want!” – Scott Redler
  • “Trade What’s Happening…Not What You Think Is Gonna Happen.” – Doug Gregory 
  • “In trading the impossible happens about twice a year.” – Henri M Simoes 
  • “The trend is your friend – until it stabs you in the back with a chopstick.” – 
  • “He who knows when he can fight and when he cannot will be victorious.” – Sun Tzu
  • “Michael Marcus taught me one other thing that is absolutely critical: You have to be willing to make mistakes regularly; there is nothing wrong with it. Michael taught me about making your best judgment, being wrong, making your next best judgment, being wrong, making your third best judgment, and then doubling your money.” – Bruce Kovner
  • “Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading, and always first and foremost protecting your butt.” – Paul Tudor Jones
  • “The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.” – Jesse Livermore
  • “A rising tide lifts all boats over the wall of worry and exposes bears swimming naked.” – 
  • “All you need is one pattern to make a living.” – Linda Raschke
  • “All the math you need in the stock market you get in the fourth grade.” -Peter Lynch
  • “5/1 risk/reward ratio allows you to have a hit rate of 20%. I can actually be a complete imbecile. I can be wrong 80% of time and still not lose.” – Paul Tudor Jones
  • The core problem, however, is the need to fit markets into a style of trading rather than finding ways to trade that fit with market behavior.” – Brett Steenbarger
  • “If you don’t respect risk, eventually they’ll carry you out.” – Larry Hite
  • “The trend is your friend until the end when it bends.” – Ed Seykota
  • “Once you find the system that works for your style/personality and confidence is gained, wash, rinse, repeat over and over again.” – 
  • “Dangers of watching every tick are twofold: overtrading and increased chances of prematurely liquidating good positions” – Jack Schwager
  • “If you can’t take a small loss, sooner or later you will take the mother of all losses.” – Ed Seykota
  • In trading, everything works sometimes and nothing works always.”
  • “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” – John Maynard Keynes
  • “IF YOU WANT TO BE A LEDGE… FIND YOUR EDGE…” – Tom Dante
  • “By living the philosophy that my winners are always in front of me, it is not so painful to take a loss.” – Marty Schwartz
  • “Sometimes the best trade is no trade.” – Anonymous
  • “Hope is bogus emotion that only costs you money.” – Jim Cramer
  • “One day does not make a trend.” – Anonymous
  • “It’s OK to be wrong; it’s unforgivable to stay wrong.” -Martin Zweig
  • “Amateurs think about how much money they can make. Professionals think about how much money they could lose.” – Jack Schwager (paraphrase)
  • “Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold put out a bucket not a thimble.” – Warren Buffet
  • “Don’t fight the Fed.” – Marty Zwieg
  • “You’re going to learn a million things, then you need to forget them all and focus on one.” – @SunriseTrader
  • “The obvious rarely happens, the unexpected constantly occurs.” – Jesse Livermore
  • “Stocks are bought not in fear but in hope. They are typically sold out of fear.” – Justin Mamis
  • “Accepting losses is the most important single investment device to insure safety of capital.” – Gerald M. Loeb

  • HEXAWARE TECHNOLOGIES – Short Term Trading View

    HEXAWARE TECHNOLOGIES – Short Term Trading View
    For all we know now that IT has been our main sector to trade since a few months continuously and consistently on the longside, this stock has been a star performer and top pick among the pack. However, since Baring Group sold a big chunk of stake, the stock crashed 10pc plus in a day and languishing since around the 435-40 levels. We believe this is good level to enter for september month and october month expiry.    
    Become member for complete analysis with charts. Trading analysis is based 80% on technical analysis and 20% on fundamental analysis along with news flow impacts.


    The given views are subject to change depending on changing market, sector, individual company and global economic conditions. Become member to benefit from market and individual stock moves. Become member to get complete analysis, and alerts for buy and sell with targets.

    WOCKHARDT PHARMA – Short Term Trading View

    WOCKHARDT PHARMA – Short Term Trading View
    We have been recommending IT and pharma stocks since last few months on the back of the correction as defensive plays and currency depreciation beneficiaries as well as a technical bounce back/upside correction plays. Wockhardt is also one of the high flying stock which is a high volatility stock when it starts moving. Call options, futures or intraday spot can be used to trade on the long side. CMP is 660 and 100 rupee or more move is expected in few days.   
    Become member for complete analysis with charts. Trading analysis is based 80% on technical analysis and 20% on fundamental analysis along with news flow impacts.


    The given views are subject to change depending on changing market, sector, individual company and global economic conditions. Become member to benefit from market and individual stock moves. Become member to get complete analysis, and alerts for buy and sell with targets.

    Sep 5, 2018

    BERGER PAINTS – Short Term Trading View


    BERGER PAINTS – Short Term Trading View
    This stock was a late entrant in paints sector stocks rally and has been doing solo performance since other stocks in the sector has already been at their almost peak valuation. This stock is also in our hyped 'buy on dips' list which is our core strategy in any uptrending market. CMP is around 320, while stock has made recent life high of around 350. Going long in an uptrending stock in an uptrending market (both making new life highs) is a good combination strategy. Also, using call option gives you more strength and margin of safety.  
    Become member for complete analysis with charts. Trading analysis is based 80% on technical analysis and 20% on fundamental analysis along with news flow impacts.


    The given views are subject to change depending on changing market, sector, individual company and global economic conditions. Become member to benefit from market and individual stock moves. Become member to get complete analysis, and alerts for buy and sell with targets.

    HDFC BANK and Misc. – Short Term Trading View


    HDFC BANK – Short Term Trading View
    While the banking sector is all dull and weak for a weekly basis, and PSUs are down and out since long, the private sector banks are doing good for a very very long time, and hdfc bank is the crown jewel in that pack. Its undergoing some correction and made high of 2050 and 2100 september expiry call option are available at 18 odd Rs. premium. 
    Having said that we are trading in many other stocks at lower levels and cash 50-100% profit in call options for september month. The stocks that are in uptrend will continue to go up after this technical correction is over. So we are trading on long side on declines in IT stocks, RIL and such other stocks. The likes of PFC, Cements, etc are bounce back stories, so we buy and trade in them selectively and cautiously.  
    Become member for complete analysis with charts. Trading analysis is based 80% on technical analysis and 20% on fundamental analysis along with news flow impacts.


    The given views are subject to change depending on changing market, sector, individual company and global economic conditions. Become member to benefit from market and individual stock moves. Become member to get complete analysis, and alerts for buy and sell with targets.

    Sep 4, 2018

    RELIANCE INDUSTRIES – Short Term Trading View


    RELIANCE INDUSTRIES – Short Term Trading View
    Reliance Industries Call Option 1300 strike price around CMP 14 for september month gives good risk reward ratio .
    If you want to earn money by buying OPTIONS or trading intraday or positional then pls become member. 
    Become member for complete analysis with charts. Trading analysis is based 80% on technical analysis and 20% on fundamental analysis along with news flow impacts.


    The given views are subject to change depending on changing market, sector, individual company and global economic conditions. Become member to benefit from market and individual stock moves. Become member to get complete analysis, and alerts for buy and sell with targets.

    SBI – Short Term Trading View CMP 306


    SBI – Short Term Trading View CMP 306
    The market has entered into a sideways zone with possible high volatility in which type of phase we do often see downside in the stocks which have been going down for many many months and years and are or were in a kind of bear market. Definitely PSU banking counts in tha. SBI is just a representative, in fact all PSU banks can be sold for short term trading view with aim to booking profits. Put options or futures can be used to trade the same. 
    Become member for complete analysis with charts. Trading analysis is based 80% on technical analysis and 20% on fundamental analysis along with news flow impacts.


    The given views are subject to change depending on changing market, sector, individual company and global economic conditions. Become member to benefit from market and individual stock moves. Become member to get complete analysis, and alerts for buy and sell with targets.

    PETRONET LNG - Short Term View


    petronet lng – Short Term Trading View
    This stock is in down trend and we believe good short term money can be made by buying put options or selling futures on positional and intraday basis.CMP is around 237.
    If you want to earn money by buying OPTIONS or trading intraday or positional then pls become member. 
    Become member for complete analysis with charts. Trading analysis is based 80% on technical analysis and 20% on fundamental analysis along with news flow impacts.


    The given views are subject to change depending on changing market, sector, individual company and global economic conditions. Become member to benefit from market and individual stock moves. Become member to get complete analysis, and alerts for buy and sell with targets.

    Sep 3, 2018

    EXIDE IND - Short Term Trading


    EXIDE IND – Short Term Trading View

    EXIDE IND is an almost no brainer call like many available in the market. However it takes brains and disciplin to make easy money out of such stock trends. This stock has been in a consistent uptrend, and faced some correction recently and now ready to rise again. It went above 300 and corrected in terms of if not price but time around 285. We think it can scale the old highs soon fast and go above it.
    If you want to earn money by buying CALL OPTION or trading intraday or positional then pls become member. 
    Become member for complete analysis with charts. Trading analysis is based 80% on technical analysis and 20% on fundamental analysis along with news flow impacts.


    The given views are subject to change depending on changing market, sector, individual company and global economic conditions. Become member to benefit from market and individual stock moves. Become member to get complete analysis, and alerts for buy and sell with targets.

    PFC - Short Term Trading


    PFC – Short Term Trading View

    PFC and REC are kind of twin however they have their own individual fundamentals. As you know we give very brief idea in our public recommendations. This stock can be traded for a short term upside with 90 Rs strike price September call option which is trading around 2 Rs. 
    Become member for complete analysis with charts. Trading analysis is based 80% on technical analysis and 20% on fundamental analysis along with news flow impacts.


    The given views are subject to change depending on changing market, sector, individual company and global economic conditions. Become member to benefit from market and individual stock moves. Become member to get complete analysis, and alerts for buy and sell with targets.


    Sep 2, 2018

    TVS Motors - Short Term Trading View


    TVS MOTORS –
    This stock was in consistent uptrend and became a victim of the correction in midcap stocks ongoing since the beginning of the year. The stock made high of 800 and now 200 Rs. lower. Among the auto stocks lot, this stocks has been an above average performer, and compared to the big boys in terms of market cap, this stocks has fared greatly. We believe the present upsurge in market will bring the stock up 10% plus and it can be traded for September expiry on long side. The technical picture is also looking positive.


    The given views are subject to change depending on changing market, sector, individual company and global economic conditions. Become member to benefit from market and individual stock moves. Become member to get alerts for buy and sell with targets.

    DEFINING PENNY STOCKS - EVERYTHING AN INVESTOR WANT TO KNOW AND SHOULD KNOW ABOUT PENNY STOCKS INVESTING I PENNY STOCKS INVESTING INDIA I WHAT IS PENNY STOCKS INVESTING


    DEFINING PENNY STOCKS - EVERYTHING AN INVESTOR WANT TO KNOW AND SHOULD KNOW ABOUT PENNY STOCKS INVESTING 
    So what is a penny stock? Basically broadly there are few classifications how the insiders i.e. the professionals and the outside investors understand the stocks or rather classify them. They are bluechip, midcap, smallcap, large cap and penny stocks.
    Here cap mean market capitalisation i.e. the current price of stock multiplied by the outstanding number of shares or issued share capital of the company. So subsequently the higher the share price and compared to the share capital, the higher the mcap. Such companies fall into largecap or bluechip category such as Reliance Industries, Infosys etc.
    So, looking at this definition of capitalisation, it does not become clear as to what exactly a penny stock means. Lay understanding of us all is that a penny stock is one whose price is in pennies i.e. in paisas or few rupees only i.e. 1 rupee or 5 rupee and so on. (Actually, pennies are subdivisions of British Pound/Currency, so here in India we should be calling such stocks paisa stocks rather than penny stocks!) So, let us clearly define that those stocks whose price is under Rs.10 should be called as penny stocks. Having cleared the doubt regarding the price, let us also understand another assumption attached with a penny stock invariably. It is that penny stocks or the companies are not at all in any favour of investors and not making any profit or into huge debt and losses for a very consistent period of time (here mark the word consistent, it need a lot of time to become a genuine penny stock as well!), which is the very reason of their stock prices being in paisas and rupees. We also understood that capitalization by which mainly the stocks are classified does not fit into penny stocks definition.

    GENUINE PENNY STOCKS RISE -
    Thousands of companies' shares are listed on the stock exchanges, and over time many firms are forgotten by the analysts, brokerage and investors community, even the promoters and investors of the very firms in question forget about it! Seriously. The point is such firms may be doing very less or negligible business and there is nothing exciting going on for a very long time in the industry they operate; making these reasons for the stock price to quote as a penny stock. But suddenly, due to some re rating of whole sector or some kind of corporate development or because the firm has started to post unexpectedly positive results and is estimated to continue to do that; the stock prices starts to move up and come out of a penny stock definition to a small cap classification.
    In reality, only 10% of the quote unquote so-called penny stocks makes permanently to small cap or higher classifications and come out of the tag of a penny stock. Rest of them may rise in a cyclical manner or in a bull market and then settle where they were, a penny stock. As in the example of Jayswal Neco Industries Ltd.

    MANIPULATIONS AROUND THE PENNY STOCKS -
    Many times the promoters and a group of operators are very much involved in this seasonal penny stocks price movement. They find a good opportunity, a market condition and send the price up and then bring it down again, making a good some in the process. Many stocks are only listed or kept listed for this purpose only, while the companies are not doing any business for real. So, this is clear manipulation and investors and traders both should be aware not to get trapped in any such stocks. The fact is more than 70% penny stock rises are manipulated or baseless and should be avoided by no-stoploss long term only investors.

    FALLEN HEROES, PRIME PREFERENCE FOR PENNY STOCK SELECTION -
    Many penny stocks today you see were also some very big stock once, and sir legitimate businesses doing almost thousands of crores of business and making good profits. But due to some terrible blow to their sector or some company specific event or some other reason like scam etc.their business suffered and the stock tend to plummet to penny levels. The examples are Reliance Communications, once a great company, whose price was at 800 before 9 years and now trading at 10 Rs. It couldn't bear the competition and got pulled down under heavy burden of debt which is a menace to almost all firms in the sector. 
    Another example is Unitech Ltd, based in Mumbai, once a premier firm in real estate sector; now trading at 7 Rs., recently Central Government has taken control of its board of directors. The firm got entangled in scandal of 2G spectrum and post-2008 world recession at the same time. The promoters are now in jail for fraud or non-delivery of flats to its buyers. The company in itself is still doing great business at almost 1000 crore annual sales and some losses. Losses are not new, most listed realty firms were in huge debt and making losses, few of which has been recently able to reduce the same, case in example, DLF Ltd. So, the point is you have to identify such, fallen heroes and see if there is any scope of improvement in their condition. This lot should be the prime watch list for investors who want to have a piece of penny stocks in their portfolio which should not be more than 15% of the total equity portfolio capital. The simple reason being that this companies still have the topline (sales), market share, strong promoters in most cases, established products or service. A turnaround is very much possible in these firms than those who doesn’t have these features and advantages. Having said that, an expert should weigh in different aspects at the particular point of time of investing in respect with the individual company before considering it a good buy as a penny stocks. Unitech Ltd is a good case in example right now whether to buy or not as the company is very well established, having great topline, good market share and so on, and was a leader in real estate pack before only few years.
    Exceptions - There are exceptions in every things, so in terms of the definition and fine detailing while understanding the penny stocks.
    Another type that penny stocks investors should eye are the firms who are going to be genuinely growing their businesses and making a lot of money due to one or the other reason. Now it is very difficult to identify such penny stocks because it is close to impossible to find out such thing. Yes, these stocks are more identifiable when they are small caps or midcaps but then they aren’t penny stocks of which we are discussion right now.

    THE ATTRACTION OF PENNY STOCKS –
    So what is the reason penny stocks tend to attract many investors? Penny stocks tend to attract mainly the smaller retail segment of investors. They are seldom the prey of HNI or other professional investors except in special situations or for short term trading etc. We are not saying that HNIs do not invest in them, they do invest but we are talking about the average penny stock which is mainly attraction of herd of small investors.
    Main reason why investors are attracted towards these stocks is that they double their money in few days or months. Yes, they can’t do it with your bluechips like HDFCs or TCSs or midcaps like Motherson Sumi etc. The stock trading at 2 rupee has a great scope of doubling or quadrupling in 2 days or 20 days than a stock of 100 or 400 rupees. The small investors put anywhere between 5k-50k- to 100k so to multiply their money faster they take the way of penny stocks. Another important aspect related to this is the advisory tips or rumours regarding operator running the stock. Ultimately the small investor has to get the info from somewhere to identify the penny stock they want to buy. So by way of many media, the investor finds the one or more penny stock he wants to invest and then proceeds.

    OUR APPROACH –
    We are an avid investor into penny stock segment and strongly make our clients put 15% of equity capital allocation into such stocks. Our selection is out of the two types of penny stocks. One is the already explained above called as fallen heroes. The others are what we call gentleman penny stock. Gentleman penny stocks are the penny stocks not because they are seasonal stocks, firms of which are not doing much and neither want to do much, and stock prices is occasionally rigged up and down by operators with or without help of promoters; no, neither are the stocks which come into the above explained fallen heroes category. These stocks are penny because they were penny from the beginning. They are just small companies, that’s it.  These are the companies which starts growing and then called as growth stocks once they cross certain price levels and topline and bottom-line and comes in the eyes of mainstream investors and media. Our some of the past picks such as Marksons Pharma, Nila Infra fall into this category.

    EPITOME –
    ü  Penny stocks should be a must in a long term investors portfolio.
    ü  Penny stocks should be baught not more than 15% of the equity capital allocation.
    ü  Penny stocks investing do not follow the common principles of equity investing like PE ratio, growth rates, profit making company, and so on.
    ü  Investment into penny stocks should be made for with clear time frame and target in mind. They seldom qualify for long term or permanent holdings.
    ü  More than one penny stocks should be baught.
    ü  Atleast 5-10 times and more return should be expected in such investments.
    ü  You can not put stoploss in such investments.
    ü  With sound research one can identify good penny stocks which can grow into small cap and midcap stocks of tomorrow.
    ü  Many times at recessionary conditions and due to other issues, many stocks of marke business groups trade at sub 20-10 levels. They should be identified as they rise faster and higher already having many plus points to their credit.
    ü  Avoid seasonal names like Jayaswal Neko, Karuturi global, Pochiraju etc. which rise and fall all the time and are pure breed penny stocks.(unless ofcourse you are a professional penny stocks trader)
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