Apr 30, 2010

"Nevers" In the Market

Never panick. Never Fear. Never worry. You can be cautious.
Never show over-exuberance.
Never become crazy.
Never add to a losing position.
Never go on telling your neighbor about your open positions.
Never keep staring blue biz Channel.
Never repeat a mistake.
Never learn a lesson Twice. If do, then not Thrice.
Never become bullish or bearish. Remain a rational. Being bullish or bearish on markets is an emotion. If you want to trade. Get in Get out. If you are investor, make value investing your maxim.
Never spread rumours, never believe in rumours. It mostly benefits the originator.
Never be overconfidence. Because overconfidence kills. In markets, surely.
Never try to time the market. Time yourself. Time your entry, exit. Time your caliber. Time your trades. Time your profits. Time Your Time.
Never over-trade.
Never think, trading is a job. It’s a business.

Buy Geodesic Ltd.-Intraday, BTST, Short Term

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Your www.MoneyControl.com Data Services are run by...








Geodesic Ltd.
CMP-118.
Intraday TGT-121, 126.
BTST TGT-126, 131..
Short Term TGT-136, 148, 156.

Apr 29, 2010

Banking Bulls and Bull Market Biases

                          Many analysts have a tendency to express view contrary to the markets trend. Many times this is only to get attention, show that they are different and are not amongst crowd. OR many times it is because they tend to believe certain sectors, stocks or markets have had 'too much' run up and that's why they tell that it's time certain sector/markets are going to make reversal and so on. Yes when it comes to investing this approach should be given a try but in trading when it is all about making the best of the bull market; people don't benefit from the moves. This happens also due to typical fear of correction in a bull market and fear of buying at 52 week or life time highs. Also when technical analysts start to look at PEs; they tend to fear the further run up and getting long into it.
             Banking space is also the victim of similar attitude amongst some analysts. While many banking stock continue to outperform and make new highs. Our technical team and market circles have identified some banking stocks still looking to have too much steam and virgin for long traders.

Andhra Bank:

CMP-127.
United Bank:

CMP-82

South Indian Bank:

CMP-175.

DCB Bank:

CMP-44
SBI of Bikaner and Jaipur:

CMP-486.

Karnataka Bank:

CMP-136

Vijaya Bank:

CMP-52.

Dena Bank:

CMP-86.90

Syndicate Bank:

CMP-93

Bank of Maharashtra:

CMP-55.50.



Yes Bank:
CMP-293
City Union Bank:

CMP-33.50

While from the smaller private sector banks Yes Bank, ING Vysya bank, Bank of Rajasthan, City Union Bank, 

Our team also expects that the largecap and sector leaders such as SBI, ICICI BANK, HDFC Bank etc. continue to lead and others follow. The party would be joined by other financial stocks.
         We suggest readers to visit our blog and subscribe to free service and even better paid service to get updates on our research and analysis. Every thing we upload is not possible to give update of because of lack of time and free communication resources. Fundamentals doesn't change overnight but technical, short term market conditions, and news factors change. So anything based on those underlying logics should also change. In the short run it is all about update. To put is shortly short term and recommendations and views are subject to change in technicals, and other short run factors. For joining Premium Paid service @ affordable rates Please Dial-9377008708.

Investing and Dividends: A forgotten Basic


               Why invest in equity shares? Why do we become investors? It is return. Return on our capital. The return while investing into any company is dividend. We get return from or in the form of dividends. But how many people investing today think about dividend? There is an ill-awareness and mis-education going on in markets. Most analyst or investment manager does not emphasize this point. All give targets and calculate the percentage rise. While real investing is aimed at earning dividends and ofcourse the capital appreciation in terms of bonus issues and rise in the share’s quoted price in addition. The return counted by the buy-price and target price is practicable only when the shares are actually sold and till it is only on papers.

Earn RATING GAINS: Buy ICRA for TGT of 1095-1255

Some of the Mumbai based HNI portfolio managers have started accumulating this counter from around 870 levels. 
While also the investors looking for cash flow and such business model as CRISIL LTD. are not betting on this stock. 
The fundamentals, business model, and financial are quite sound. The PE expansion in CRISIL LTD. will also result in PE expansion of ICRA from current levels.
 This could not be pure value buying but is as We mentioned a Portfolio Managers' Pick. 

Buy ICRA with A TGT of Rs.1095, and 1255.

Disclaimer: We have this stock in our Quarterly PMS Members' Accounts.
Posted on Thursday, April 29, 2010 | Categories:

Apr 28, 2010

Volatility Measures suggests Spikes in NG while Steadiness in Crude Oil:

Crude oil volatility fell to the lowest level in almost three years. The reasons are stated such as brimming stockpiles and rising OPEC investment in production capacity which expectedly eased concern of shortages. This measure of Volatile in crude oil is oil’s 50-day historic volatility. It has declined to 23 percent presently. This is the lowest mark since July 2007. This measure peaked to 108 percent in the beginning of 2009 when the crude oil prices tanked due to subprime led crisis and Lehman brothers fall. Recently the OPEC countries (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) said they are planning 140 oil projects over the next five years and that its 6 million barrels a da of unused production is enough to meet demand.
If we look at the inventory situation then the US crude stock pile rose to 356 million barrel recently which is biggest since June. Even the inventories held on ships are climbing. However recently the crude oil prices are making fresh yr tops and not receding as should be suggested by the above facts. While it is also a fact that declining crude oil volatility means lower margins from trading operations for global oil giants.
The crude toped all-time high of 147 in July 2008 and made low of $32 in December 2008.
However we at MEGHA INVESTMENTS AND RESEARCH believe that the prices of crude oil should continue to strengthen further despite declining VIX in crude oil however the trade range is likely to remain narrow. The arguments of newspapers and reporters are self-appraising and oversimplifications. There is no proof that the Greece crisis bring crude oil price down. The dollar is strengthen against euro then why the gold prices continue to remain firm? Anyway, reporters have to report and to report (they) have to over simplify, correlate, show reasons, cause-effect relationships, explanations and so on.
The decline in volatile is many times an occurrence of increased liquidity and trading volume which is common across all asset classes. But however we don’t completely agree with this maxim. Many times we have witnessed rise in volatility with rising volumes. The new highs and lows are also typically recorded with record volumes.
While looking at the natural gas, the volatility is rising. The measure increased to 41.7 percent which was at 35.3 percent in march which was 8 month low. 

Apr 27, 2010

Blog Archieve

Posted on Tuesday, April 27, 2010 | Categories:

ICRA LTD.-Not Competing with CRISIL?



You and We, till date believed ICRA is only peer to/fro CRISIL LTD.
But The BSE Website suggests something else!
BSE's portal suggests BLB, Emkay Glob Fin, and Almondz Global such companies are peers of ICRA. There is no mention of CRISIL LTD.
If the information is incomplete, non-factual, and misleading, than what is the use?
Same case with many other companies where the Exchange fails to provide useful data.
No information is better than Wrong information.
Never mind our visitors, You can always Rely on MEGHA INVESTMENTS AND RESEARCH!
Posted on Tuesday, April 27, 2010 | Categories:

READ TESTIMONIALS

Excellent trading calls! This is what's REAL research. Extremely bold view. I am three times more confidence in markets now in any type of situation.
-Sumit Patel, via email, Rajkot


I have been blindly following your delivery calls.
I had to keep patience in few but most made me extra ordinary profits. This I realize now when I see in hindsight. Thank you. God bless.
-Surjit Singhania, via SMS


Good service, continue the same.
thank your very much.
good job done.
extensive research.
thanking your once again.
-Bhupendra, Trivendram, via Contact Form

Hats off to the MEGHA INVESTMENTS AND RESEARCH TEAM!
-Divyang Vora, Bharuch

Your news letter weekly is very appreciable and is according to market trends. I congratulate for these efforts.
-K Khantwal, Ponta Sahib, H.P



Now that market is on crucial juncture and is about to break up or down (which definitely u will predict and guide the best)—at this point I would like to interact few things from my perspective and for all investors view point.
I remember the time 2 years back when the Bull Run faded and was converted into bear phase—at that time u predicted and analyzed that BANKING AND AUTO SECTOR will be outperformer in the next cycle and that stage has almost come. Irrespective of market making new highs or not—the targets given by u and your team for many of the banking, autos and pharma stocks are already achieved and some running ahead of that also—bonus for those investor who r still holding them.

At this point—my question is to ask u that now which sector will be next churning outperformer in the next cycle(as this ups and downs are going to continue—from 21k  to 10 k—from 10k-21k and again so on).
Sir kindly analyzed and guide the next bull runners—stocks and their targets as a new year bonanza—request from ur paid service member and friend—so that investors like me can be benefitted.

Seeing to the historical highs and lows of many stocks I have seen that there are many stocks which were trading at 10-15 rs 10 years back and now they are trading above 1000 rs price. What a magnificent return on investment?

Seeing to the risk reward ratio I feel that you suggest few such stocks which can give 1000 fold returns to investors in long run—as u r much more experienced and involved in market then many others—I think u can definitely predict whether textile, media, engineering or any other sector will be outperformer in next few years.

That was just a request from your real fan and genuine long term investor and ur follower.

Thanks a lot for what u r doing personally and professionally.
-Dr. Chetan Lalseta, via email

Your trading calls are great, but the way you predict the intermediate and long term trend is excellent…
-Mayapati, Kerala

Keep it up team!
-Babu George, Tamilnadu, via Contact form


Very good analysis.
-Sarish, Karnataka, Via Smsgupshup free groups

Your method is so impressive. I like it very much.
-Moksha, Via Smsgupshup free groups

I think, the assured profit products are best, I am an intraday nifty member continuously for last 3 months.
-Ravi Menon, Mumbai

Megha Investments research team is simply outstanding! They give more than just tips…
-Avadhoot S, India

Sir, I have searched many websites, but your articles are best. I look forward to become paid member in next year.
-Sudhir Shah, Surat

Their investors advisory products are best that I got. I lost money on so-called famous websites who advertise on moneycontrol.com etc.and received useless so-called multibagger tips every week 5! Thanks to megha investments team, who discussed with me and got my portfolio right. Thanks..
-Rajnishkumar Surendrakumar, Hariyana

I am satisfied with cash stock fii delivery calls. I want to start your … service. Thanks.
Sunil Nai, Trivendram

Your communication is very good. Your sms are swift and timely. I never had to wait for right update anytime in last one and a half month. I get sms after market close regarding how many points (in nifty fut) I earned or lost and net trading result. I like this system. It is a very good discipline for me. Thanks.
Mr.Senthil, Banguluru

I lost money to a couple of so called advisory/telemarketing companies. Megha research team not only recovered my money but also help me regain my confidence in markets. Thanks a lot.
Bhavesh Shah and Gauresh Shah, Surat

Your research on website is excellent. I will come to you only when I start trading and investing in markets.
Krupalesh TN, Haridwar, via phone

I have not traded much.  But as an investor I saved ** lakh rupees, selling some stocks given alert by megha investment team. The money I saved was more than what I paid for their advice.
Chandrasekshar, Andhra/Mumbai

I became a loser intraday stock trader to a pro nifty intraday trader. All credit goes to megha investments guys!!
Saurabh Jain, Faridabad

Their assured profits commodity advice service is unmatchable. I was earlier a desperate trader who liked to remain on the phone with my advisory throughout the day. But megha inv team made me a cool and calm trader. Now I simply follow their message for trades and strategy as explained by them. I make 50% more than earlier. Thanks to megha investments team.
Kishorbhai, Patan/Jalna


Thanks to all who bothered to send testimonials.
Please note: Testimonials are edited for brevity and grammatical properties.
To write your testimonial, please click here.
Posted on Tuesday, April 27, 2010 | Categories:

KEW INDUSTRIES LTD.-Technical and Insider Recipe

Enjoying shalibhadra finance or not from 23 to 29 -upper freezeeez! 
Now buy KEW INDUSTRIES LTD.
It's presently trading in seller freeze, my target 30 just click on the chart below and look cup and handle formation.
Moreover, insider says Larson and Tubro is planning to take over the company...


Posted on Tuesday, April 27, 2010 | Categories:

Difference between Winners and Losers in Trading

  • Winners come for long-term career; losers come for short term bull market gains and fast money.
  • Winners have adequate capital, losers are generally undercapitalized.
  • Winners are always preparing for the best and prepared for the worst, whereas losers learns nothing and forgets everything.
  • Winners never repeat a mistake or if does then very less compared to the previous time they made similar mistake. While losers repeat mistake, even worse than that that they lose bigger than the previous time they made the mistake.
  • Winners trade/work in up and down and sideways all three types of markets, while losers play on favorites and comfortable side.
  • Winners learn and improve; losers sharpen their ego and continue to lose.
  • Losers think they have to earn a minimum daily, while winners know in trading we don’t earn daily. In fact it is a question of saving capital and safety many times.
  • Winners learn from others mistakes while losers think they know how to play the market and that luck is all they need.

Fresh n' Fantastic Delivery Stock Picks

Below are some Fresh Delivery Picks. 
No worry investing Calls. 
They are unique in that they are not expensive stocks. 
Companies are doing great. 
They have not have witnessed a run up. 
The volume in these counters are expanding. 
Big investors base are strong.
Some of the counters have consolidated and Ready for upmove.


Rolta India Ltd (CMP-190)
Power Grid Corporatio of India Ltd. (CMP-113)
PTC India Ltd. (CMP-114.50)
MRF Ltd. (CMP-7128)
Bosch Ltd. (CMP-4900)
NMDC Ltd. (CMP-300)
st tgt 332-363.
med term tgt, 416, 545.


We expect 20%-50% return in all the above counters for 1 to3 to 6 months duratoin.




Disclaimer: Our analysts and member have positions in PTC India Ltd., Rolta India Ltd.,

Apr 25, 2010

INDIA'S GROWTH STORY BY 2012: Are you Invested or Not?


POWER GENERATION AND CAPITAL GOODS (power equipments)
India needs total 220 GW electricity by 2012 from currently installed of 139 GW.
So we need another 81 GW of electricity.
(1000 megawatt=1gw)
As per roughly figure we need total investments of 11.35lakh crores for this. It could be classified as below,
Rs.4.95 lakh crores for power generation.
Rs. 2 lakh crores for transmission.
Rs.4 lakh crores for distribution.
Rising demand for power will boost demand of power equipments and transmission and distribution plus coal and gas.
Companies to benefit are Reliance Infrastructure Ltd for power generation and power related projects.
Kalpatru Power Transmission Ltd. for transmission and distribution lines etc.
Eimco Elecon Ltd. for earth mover equipments etc.

PORTS:
India is targeting to increase its port handling capacity  from 575 million tones to 1000 million tones by 2012.
For this we need 55000 crores roughly.
Mundra Port and SEZ Ltd., Pipavav Shipyard Ltd., Sical Logistics Ltd. and such other companies will benefit for this investments.

ROAD AND HIGHWAYS
As per roughly and official figure there are 41 project with estimate of 41000 crores will be awarded.
The companies to benefit are Noida toll, IRB Infra, Roman Tarmat, TIL, Gujarat Apollo, Jkumar Infra, Gayatri Projects Ltd. etc.

RETAIL
Rising disposable income, young population and income growth in rural areas is boosting the retail growth.
Retail players are set to open stores in Tier 1,2,3,4 cites which will drive the growth in future.
The companies to benefit from this will be Pantaloon Retail Ltd., Shoppers Stop Ltd., Tren Ltd. and such other companies. (Please be selective while choosing investment options from this sector as not all companies’ financials are sound)

REAL ESTATE
Rising disposable income, young population and income growth in rural areas is boosting the real estate sector’s growth.
The companies to benefit are Unitech Ltd, Shobha Developers, DLF Ltd., Ganesh Housing Ltd., HDIL and other companies from real estate sector selected one to one.
Note:
There are many other areas where a huge amount of domestic and foreign investment is committed and going to happen. There are railways, automobile, pharmaceuticals, banking and financials etc. areas will also witness huge growth. Due to increasing link to rural areas rural is also going to be an attractive sector.
Further Note:
              But this all doesn't mean investment in any sector or any company will earn a good return if not multibagger. Some rules for investment are always static and apply to all business and economic and market conditions. Buy a company's share offering a good margin of safety, and whose fundamentals have power to beat the expectations built into the share price of the company. You can choose to hire or consult a Portfolio Manager for this. Investing money is not opening a demate account of playing the Bull market or betting on tips. If you have a lot of money to waste then it's fine. But if your money is hard earned and you respect it then MAKE INVESTING ONE OF THE MOST SERIOUS AND TOP PRIORITY AFFAIR OF YOUR LIFE or else Don't invest Only To Later fret, repent, and blame!

At Megha Investments and Research, we have these STANDARD Ready-To-Invest Portfolios. We have SIP PMS for Then we also have advisory service for Mutual Fund investors. We also do PMS i.e Portfolio Management Service where we manage your investments. Two options viz. 3 monthly and 12 monthly are available. We also do Customized-PMS which will be based on the need and preference of the investor.

For Subscribing and more details DIAL-09377008708. or Write our PMS team on profit.megha@gmail.com.
You will soon find details of all on our website and in your inbox.

Short-Term Delivery Trading Calls

Cairn India Ltd:
This counter is trading at around 297 levels. We recommend a buy call with a target of Rs.372. 


Biocon Ltd.:
Short term traders and investors are advised to buy and hold for a target of Rs.350. Strong fundamental and business arguments, competition scenario favours the company.


Fortis Healthcare Ltd.:
After its recent acquisition in Singapore, this company will become Asia's second largest hospital chain. Moreover Ranbaxy Group promoters at helm will drive PE expansion by big investors wanting to invest with such a promoter leadership business.
Buy for a target of 173-178 for short term and 212+ for mid term. Purely Bull market call.


Tata Power Company Ltd:
This is comparatively a low volatility counter. Sudden 2-3 consecutive days spurt make it rise 10-15%. Also slides with same frequency. Seems to be building a strong base and narrowing consolidation range and giving way to technical break outs. 
Buy with a target price of Rs.1395 and 1440.
All calls are based on fundamental, technical and other factoral analysis.
For more and regular calls Contact our Research Team on 09377008708.

Apr 22, 2010

Observe Earth Day: Some tips how humans could be responsible children of mother Earth

Few tips to contribute to Earth Day as responsible child of nature.

  • Save water.
  • Save electricity.
  •  Consume less.
  • Use more daylight. Wake up early to finish your works rather than working late.
  • Use less and less of plastics and other non disposable materials. That harms nature the most.
  • Don’t do over consumption. Money is printed as much as required, circulates and goes from one hand to another. But the natural resources are not re-producible. Don’t pollute water in any manner.
  • You are requested to set yourself right. You don’t need to join any rally. No one would need to if everyone behaves responsibly during their life. Then also, we wouldn’t need any campaign or effort for saving environment, nature and our earth.
  • Plant and nurture at least 10 trees in your lifetime. At least five. You can do it in your society compound or nearby place.
Posted on Thursday, April 22, 2010 | Categories:

Warren Buffett says Growth & Value Not Contrasting investment styles: sends Vijay from Allahabad

In response to a Post on Growth Stocks, Vijay from Allahabad has sent a very good quotation by Warren Buffett. Read and learn:
“Market commentators and investment managers who glibly refer to ‘growth’ and ‘value’ styles as contrasting approaches to investment are displaying their ignorance not their sophistication. Growth is simply a component-usually a plus, sometimes a minus-in the value equation”
-Warren Buffett (2000)

Apr 21, 2010

Rational Behavior in Investing: Some practical points

Investors many times take unnecessary risk. They tend to buy stocks pricey due to fear of losing opportunity and being left out of the rally. But why should at all investors rely on rally? This is wrong approach. You buy first and then let the markets justify it for you. If you have invested right it will eventually come up. Remember: Value investing always beat everything.
Always wait if you are not finding any value picks. Remain on cash. Remember your investment would only reap returns if you follow your value-investing strategy. And otherwise not. So then why invest when you are not sure, and it is like taking unnecessary risk?
If some stocks are going up today and you don’t own many of them or most of them, so what? They were the very stocks that were not going up in past while others were. So you thing to shift to the rising stocks or some others stocks because your stocks are not in the rising or 52-week high list is not rational thinking. They will be some day. You can not predict it. Also see by how much volume this whole lot of mid-cap and small-cap stock are rising. How much is the market float. Many stocks rise with thin volume and in a way to benefit a very few who are on the inside rather than the general investors community like you and me or our friends. Just ask yourself that looking at the given volume or sudden erratic rises how many could have been able to earn out of it? How many could have taken position before not many day? This kind of rational thinking will help you overcome your fear of losing opportunity and being left-out of the market or that your strategy is not right or thoughts that your picks are wrong and so on.

Gems for Value Investors: Parag Parikh's lessons on "Growth Stocks"

               Here are some of the gems from Parag Parikh’s book Value Investing and Behavioral Finance. The views on so-called “Growth Stocks” are very interesting
  • Seasonal investors chase the fancy opf the markets in the name of growth stocks, and call themselves growth investors.
  • Growth stocks investing is based on hunches, dreams, illusions or popular opinion. They are better termed as ‘dream stocks’.
  • Growth stocks investing is more of a philosophy of buying what is popular.
  • When one can not justify the high valuation of a stock one would argur\e that is is a growth stock and hense expensive.
  • For any stock to be a growth stock it has first to be value stock, value and growth are inseparable.
  • The concept of growth stock is a product of bull market. It dies when the bear market sets in. Bear markets create value.
  • The term ‘growth stock’ is meangless since ‘growth stocks’ can be identified only in retrospection; it is merely stock that went up.
  • When a stock becomes a fancy and fad in the market, it is chased by one and all. The sharp rise in the stock price makes it growth stock. Before the rise how many would call it a growth stock? It is only when the price move very fast it is evident that it has found fancy and is thus termed as a growth stock.
  • It is the value of mastery that excites investors. It is the lure of the newand the unknown that fascinates the investors. Investors are always looking at something new, as they believe that novelty can fetch them more money. This novelty becomes a fancy when more and more investors chase it. This mixes with behavioural biases. Thus, a fad and fancy start quoting at fancy prices. This is termed as growth stock as there is no available explanation to justify the steep rise in price.
  • Growth investing is investing in new ideas, new technology, new sectors, new initial public offerings, new additions to the indices, new fada and fancies etc.
  • Value investing is knowledge and growth investing is mystery.
There are a lot more gems from India's own value investing veteran. We will update more later on. 
Investors with a 2 year horizon can buy our "Emerging 7-Star Portfolio". Click HERE for details.

Apr 20, 2010

Excerpts from IMF Global Financial Stability Report

The IMF recently released on 20th Global Financial Stability Report. Few comments and excerpts from the reports:
                    IMF put stress on the need for the countries to take steps to revive credit growth. It expressed concerns over potential rising seriousness of Sovereign debts than the private sector sluggishness. It also mentioned that the global economy is on a revival path. It expressed further concerns by stating that the government balance sheets are becoming vulnerable and the risk and further vulnerabilities to the global economy is coming from this side. It acknowledged the deterioration of fiscal balances of countries. This is especially true when recently USA is already and was always in deep debt, it brought the subprime crisis while the ghosts of Greece crisis are not fading still and the countries are in queue like those of Spain, Poland, Italy, UK, France, Japan etc to bring up their debt problems when the time permits. All of these countries have their debt level around more than or equal to 90% of their GDP.
The IMF also commented that the Longer-run solvency concerns could translate into short-term strains in funding markets as investors require higher yields to compensate for future risks.
While the cost of insuring Greek sovereign debt against default surged to a record on 19th April since the debut of Euro currency in 1999.
The IMF report also said the main sources of sovereign risk in the 16-country euro region have shifted to reflect market concerns about fiscal sustainability. At the same time IMF mentioned that the US and European banks are safer than they were last year.
The IMF official said that the Government lenders also face problems and the reason is the debt-to-GDP ratio of the world’s advanced economies which is nearing the highest levels since World War-2.
The IMF report notably focused on the recent problems faced for short term financing for banks and governments alike.
One of the strongest writing of the report was the mention of IMF that the emerging markets such as Asia, and Latin America. This attraction is due to strong growth prospects, appreciating currencies, and rising asset prices, lower interest rates are attracting capital flows in competition to developed economies.
The other noticeable point of the IMF report was the concern about excesses in real estate markets especially China.