May 26, 2013

STATE OF MARKETS: About Turn OR About Turn ?

The 1st About Turn means 'Will the markets resume its rally?' or the 2nd About Turn 'Will the markets resume its downturn persisted throughout February, and March? '

In our last article, we clearly wrote about the 5971 level.
It still is the most important level before 5758 and 5480. We believe this level has been held after a corrective last week on the back of global markets profit booking (how do you understand when some thing is a profit booking only or a panic selling or reversal? You can understand it easily See, when the market corrects without any reason it is profit booking and the possibility is highly likely that the present trend will resume again. For example, you saw that on 13 May markets dropped 500 points, there was some export import data, which were not of much significance; export import data have not been of much significance. Neither was there a global markets sell of of such event. Apart from that the Nifty steadied and closed just above the 5971 level which was a clear clear indication of a complete recovery in next or next to next day. So, the point is that when without any substantial reason markets fall in a visible uptrend or rise in a visible downtrend then it is just a profit booking correction and not a reversal)

Markets are looking like playing sea-saw to hold or cross 5971 level in next week and even if a downtrend is there on Monday and Tuesday you can not tell with conviction that it will go further down or will be below 6000 by the time the week ends. So, try to play cautiously next week. Remain long and short both.
Many stocks have again reached their March low levels. Many of them took support and bounced due to formation of mid term levels double bottom. If stocks decline below that then we will see 10-30% decline in next and pursuing week itself in many stocks like Tata Chem, Tech Mahindra, Bank India, and so on. There are many of them, while many stocks have broken their levels and are destined 100% to fall lower in if not next week then later irrespective of market making new high of not. And this happens nornally when market is rising slowly i.e. for example imagine Nifty rising 25 points daily about average and thus crossing 6350+ in 1 month. This type of move lets the bears hammer weak stocks without being affected with market's uprise.
The trader should position himself on both sides by buying strong and selling weak and then increase sizing which ever the market is going for a two day game. However, the bulls still seem to have control over the market, as you saw how on 13 may also bears' attempt to bring markets down went in vein as well as the bulls were successful to pull the Nifty up above 5971 and close 5982 level on last Friday. You can see the struggle in the form of the long 'shadow' on Friday candle.

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