Aug 14, 2012

NIFTY OUTLOOK (14th August, 2012)



Nifty Bounced Back: Will It Break Trend Line Resistance?


The NSE Nifty spot closed at 5348 with good buying pressure. As indicated in yesterday's report, Nifty spot showed the upside movement and it was given better idea as buy in deeps. Now, this is the time to break the trend line resistance to move forward. If we analyze the lower indicator stochastic, it is showing the negative diversion for favorable movement and will cut soon from the level of 70 which is nearer to overbought situation. Whereas, MACD is supporting the view of positive movement by fresh cut upward. This is the situation where intraday traders may face trouble to enter in long and short Nifty future position. They are not advised to trade in intraday for this day for safe trading. But, Nifty spot price line is having significant upside potential. Traders are advised to keep in mind the major resistance at 5397 which is a trend line resistance, indicated in given chart.


Happy Trading !!

Megha Investments & Research Team

Market Report of Last Week


 The NSE Nifty spot closed at 5348 with good buying pressure. As indicated in yesterday's report, Nifty spot showed the upside movement and it was given better idea as buy in deeps. Now, this is the time to break the trend line resistance to move forward. If we analyze the lower indicator stochastic, it is showing the negative diversion for favorable movement and will cut soon from the level of 70 which is nearer to overbought situation. Whereas, MACD is supporting the view of positive movement by fresh cut upward. This is the situation where intraday traders may face trouble to enter in long and short Nifty future position. They are not advised to trade in intraday for this day for safe trading. But, Nifty spot price line is having significant upside potential. Traders are advised to keep in mind the major resistance at 5397 which is a trend line resistance, indicated in given chart.

NOW READ LAST WEEK'S MARKET REPORT AND OPTIONS STRATEGY HERE BELOW. TO GET THIS WEEKLY REPORT BEFORE MONDAY MARKET OPENING, PLEASE  REGISTER FREE ON OUR WEBSITE WWW.MEGHAINVESTMENTS.COM

Last week we have recommended you to go for long with nifty and infrastructure stocks. The target of Nifty and bank nifty had been achieved. The rally could have been extended more but monsoon is now is the biggest worry for India. Due to the high inflation and low monsoon in India, the prices of agriculture commodities are going to high. And auto sectors are going to affect directly. August will be the last month for rain. If this month fill up the gap of rain of last two month Then GDP can be re modified. India required a good rain in the month of august and only 20 days are left now. On the other we are seeing a good rally in international market; specifically NASDAQ and DOW JONES are both trading at their high of year. We have seen a good 10 % rally in European market in last 30 days. This all are very significant factor. Only worry is rain which will decreases the progress of GDP. Now big broking houses are reducing the figure of GDP from 8 % to 5.5%. But I think Indian financial system will overcome all this worry and my expectation for GDP is in the range of 6 % to 6.75 % [yearly]. Investors can play a range bound session and for very low price trade. No big moment can be seen in this expiry. Stock specific action can be seen. 

·         Trading strategy for nifty:
Scrip
Instrument
Strike price
Purchase price
Stop loss
Target
Nifty
Call- buy
5400
45 to 50
5270 cash
100
Nifty
Put – sell
5100
10 to 12
5220 cash
Zero
Nifty
Call – sell
5500
16 to 18
5435 cash
Zero
Nifty
Put- sell
5200
23 to 25
5250 cash
Zero

·         Trading strategy for bank nifty:
Scrip
Instrument
Strike price
Purchase price
Stop loss
Target
Bank Nifty
Call- buy
10500
140 to 150
10380
250
Bank Nifty
Call – buy
10600
95 t0 100
10400
180
Bank Nifty
Call – sell
10700
60 to 70
10625
Zero
Bank Nifty
Put- sell
10200
86 to 90
10380
10

·         Stock specific strategy: bhartiartl
Buy future of bharti artl at 257
Buy call of bhartiartl of 280 strike price around 1.50 to 2.50
Sell put of bhartiartl of 260 strike price around 10
Target: for bhartiartl future 278
           : For 280 strike price call 13
           : For 260 strike price put 1 
Stop loss for all three trades will be 248 levels in cash closing basis
·         Stock specific strategy: state bank of India
Buy future of sbin at 1900
Buy call of sbin of 1950 strike price around 30 to 33
Sell put of sbin of 1850 strike price around 30 to 33
Target: for future 1975
           : For 1950 strike price call 80
           : For 1850 strike price put 3
Stop loss for all three trades will be 1878 in cash closing basis
·         Stock specific strategy: sesa goa
Buy future of sesagoa at 192
Buy call of sesagoa of 200 strike price around 2 to 3
Sell put of sesagoa of 180 strike price around 1.5 to 2 rs
Target: for future 203
           : For 200 call 9
           : For 180 put zero
Stop loss for all three trades will be 185 in cash closing basis.
·         Stock specific strategy: HDIL
Buy future of HDIL at 81
Buy call of HDIL of 85 strike price around 1.75 to 2 rs
Buy two call of HDIL of 90 strike price around 0.90 to 1.2 rs
Sell put of HDIL of 75 strike price around 1.20 to 1.5rs  
Target: for future 86
           : For 85 call 8
           : For 90 call 4
           : For 75 put zero
Stop loss for all four trades will be 78 in cash closing basis.

·         Stock specific strategy: NCC
Buy future of NCC at 40.25 to 40.50 for the price target of 44.25 stop los will be 37.5 closing basis in cash.

·         Stock specific strategy: tata motors
Buy call of tata motor of 240 strike price at 4rs to 4.50 rs
buy call of tata motor of 250 strike price at 2 rs
Sell put of tata motor of 220 strike price at 2.5 to 2.75rs
Target          : For 240 call 9.50
           : For 250 call 5.50
           : For 220 put zero rs
Stop loss for all four trades will be 223 in cash cl