Jul 7, 2018

Indian & World Stock Markets Update & Status As On 7 July 2018


Indian & World Stock Markets Update & Status As On 7 July 2018

The Indian stock markets continued to remain sideways, during the week ended on 7 July 2018. The lack of sell off helped the new listings like RITES, FINE ORGANIC and VARROC to give 5-20% gains.
The global markets also remained sideways with erratic up and down moves of 1-2% on up and down both sides. One can argue that has been the behaviour of the market since last 2 months at least.
The lack of trend on either side across the financial markets had been due to the international and domestic factors like that of change in RBI stance regarding interest rates, USA central bank rate hike, Donald Tump implementing his tariff threats over China, China retaliation measures and further counter action threats, the upcoming 2019 Loksabha election in Indian and the toughness faced by the incumbent PM Narendra Modi. As far as the ‘uncertainty sell off’ is concerned, we have been witnessing it for almost last 5-6 months, which has digested; at least the initial panic orinigated by them factors.
Amid all these and the sideways or what we call a languishing market; the Chinese mainland market has corrected below 3000 mark which it was trying to hold on since many years. The present bear market which has been persisting since almost last 6 months, which had its roots in Trump Tariff Tantrum; is expected to continue in the second half of the calendar year 2018 as well. It is however noticeworthy and a sigh of relief for the investors that the Dow Jones (benchmark index of USA stock markets) has maintained its critical 200 DMA thrice after that. However, the other important indicators still signs towards vulnerabilities in the technical chart set up. Our research suggests that any strong upmove is not going to happen in near term in this global trend setting equity indice and this 9th year since bull market began is going to be a year of profit booking and uncertainty which is likely to be followed by the global counter parts, be it the developed ones of the EMs like India.  We also believe that the present non-stop upmove rally in USA markets is due to mainly factors such as 1). The very low base of 2008 crash 2). The liquidity flood post USA financial crisis provided by the developed central banks 3). The improving macro economic data in USA and Europe 4). The election of Trump government which promised and implementing as well upon its corporate tax cuts, and ‘america first’ economic agendas.
We believe that the rally is taking a breather this year. The stocks rally in Europe could be backed by its own strength of macro and micro economic indicators. While the Asian economies, as usual and as always, continue to remain non-trending and non-decisive in whole global ball game of equity markets and vulnerable as they were to foreign funds flow, of which India has seen as much as USD 1 billion and USD  6 billion in debt markets, the highest in first half of any years in a decade. This clearly says something about the world markets changing trends and global investors’ changing portfolio settings.
We, however believed that there has to be a small cap and mid cap as well as large cap stock technical bounce back rally, of which some already started in last week trade. We believe this should be taken as an opportunity for longer term investors to invest in cement, entertainment, oil gas, real estate and some select stocks as they are available at cheap valuations.
Indian economy is just coming out of two huge economic disruptive events of note ban and GST while the LTCG also impacted and continue to impact the investments fraternity’s decision making esp.the FPI ones.
We think that the Indian markets would continue to languish around the present life time highs of NIFTY 11000 and SENSEX 36500 during the time until Mr. Modi is likely re-elected as PM. We have seen many jokes doing rounds in social networking that NIFTY is at 10800 but the portfolio of investors looks like NFTY of 8000. This has happened due to the sell off in mid cap and small caps while few large caps like HDFC, RIL, Maruti etc. continued to drive the benchmark indices up or at least maintained it near the life highs. So, this irony would continue to remain, and that is why we always suggest the lay investors to take advice of professional experienced investment advisory for their ventures into stock investing and trading.
The given views are subject to change depending on changing market and global economic conditions. Become member to benefit from market and individual stock moves.

Jul 1, 2018

News For Next Week : 1 July 2018 : What Would Impact The Indian Stocks Markets In Next Week l Indian Stock Markets For Next Week Analysis


Spooked by trade war worries, a sinking rupee and rise in crude oil prices, Dalal Street investors joined their global peers in a sell-off exercise. Although, the bulls made a comeback on Friday, the week belonged to the bears. Equity benchmarks Sensex shed 0.74 per cent during the week to end at 35,423 while NSE's Nifty bled 1 per cent to settle at 10,714. 
Indian markets continued to remain mostly sideways amid the expiry week technicalities and continueing lack of triggers from world or domestic sphere. Midcap and smallcap as well as largecaps from most of sectors continued to remain weakish and corrective excepting few stocks that are strong the likes of IT majors and minors as well as few index and non index counters which saw bounce back. It is an irony for the investors, both short, and long term that the benchmark indices are almost around the lifetime highs, and that too despite the lustreless global markets movement; but their portfolio looks like that of 20% or more correction type valuation. Anyways, we expect the markets to continue to languish for this month as well just like we predicted about May and June month about ‘erratic moves’, ‘intraday trades’, ‘1-2% gains trades’, and ‘range trading’ type of sideways market.

Trade Tariffs: Import tariffs announced by the US President Donald Trump on Chinese products will come into effect on July 6. Earlier in June, Trump laid out a list of more than 800 strategically important imports from China that would be subject to a 25 per cent tariff starting on July 6, including cars. In response to it, China’s Commerce Ministry had said it would respond with tariffs “of the same scale and strength” and that any previous trade deals with Trump were “invalid. Reuters reported China would impose 25 per cent tariffs on 659 US products, ranging from soyabeans and autos to seafood. Canada has also vowed to impose retaliatory tariffs on US imports from July 1 

Rupee: The domestic unit touched its nadir in the week gone by. Although, it made a sharp recovery on Friday, it is still Asia's worst-performing currency this year. 
According to Moody’s Investors Service, RBI's efforts to tighten the availability of rupees in the market and halt a slide in the currency may squeeze profitability of the country’s lenders as it raises their funding costs, Bloomberg reported. 

Crude prices: Oil posted biggest weekly rise in more than two months on shrinking stockpiles and supply disruptions from Canada to Libya. Futures advanced 8.1 per cent last week in New York, above London-traded Brent crude’s gain of 5.1 per cent, Bloomberg reported. The world’s two most important oil benchmarks - Brent and WTI are diverging as Saudi Arabia’s pledge to lift output weighs on the European market, the report said 

Macro data: India's manufacturing sector data for June is slated to release on Monday. The Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) fell from 51.6 in April to 51.2 in May. Services sector data for June will be unveiled on Wednesday. Services activity witnessed a slowdown in May as the Nikkei India Services Business Activity Index fell to 49.6 from 51.4 in April. 

Auto stocks: Shares of auto companies will be in focus as the automakers will start releasing sales numbers for June from Sunday. Auto companies continued to register robust sales in May, driven by rural demand and government's infra push. Maruti Suzuki NSE 0.62 % India, a leader in passenger vehicles, sold a total of 172,512 units in May, an increase of 26 per cent while Tata Motors NSE 2.26 % registered a strong growth of 58 per cent YoY at 54,295 units, against 34,461 units.

Stock-specific actions: Last week saw some big-ticket developments in individual names. First, IRDAI approved LIC’s plan to buy 51 per cent stake in IDBI Bank. The life insurer is expected to invest Rs 10,000-13,000 crore in tranches in the state-run lender. This apart, Tata Steel NSE 3.52 % and Germany’s Thyssenkrupp signed final agreement on Saturday to establish a long-expected steel joint venture. In addition, state-run Punjab National Bank (PNB) sold its entire stake in ratings firm Icra for a consideration of Rs 109 crore. 
New kids on the block: Shares of RITES and Fine Organic Industries will list on the bourses on Monday. Initial public offerings of both the companies, which ran from June 20 to June 22, saw huge investor demand. While Railways consultancy firm RITES' public offer was subscribed a mega 67 times, Fine Organics issue was subscribed nearly 9 times. 

Tech factors: The Nifty50 index on Friday settled above its 50-day moving average. In the process, it formed a large bullish candle on the daily chart, similar to a ‘Long White Day’ and would face resistance at other key short-term moving averages in the 10,730-10,750 range. If Nifty continues to show similar strength in the next session, then the possibility of bottom formation at Thursday’s low of 10,557 will be much higher. The same can be confirmed with a close above 10,785
However, VK Sharma, Head - Private Client Group & Capital Markets Strategy, HDFC Securities, believes it would be too early to define it as a bullish trend reversal. Traders should only take aggressive longs once Nifty closes above 10,850, Sharma advises. 

US jobs data: Investors across the globe will keep an eye on the US jobs data for June, which is scheduled to be released on July 6. The US economy continued to add jobs at a solid pace in May, with nonfarm payrolls rising 223,000 and the unemployment rate falling to an 18-year low of 3.8 per cent. 


May 2, 2018

Reliance Infrastructure Ltd - Stock View For Investors & Traders


Reliance Infrastructure Ltd :
CMP - 433.
VIEW – sell, avoid for short and medium term, Shift

FUNDAMENTAL TAKE -
The company is one of a from the Anil Ambani stable. The group has been facing bad luck since almost the previous global economic and world stock market crash. Beginning with the reliance communications which has now lost the telecom business and reliance power being the two stocks which drained the group’s reputation as well as money.
Reliance Infrastructure is trading around 12 PE which is almost about same as some of comparable peers. We are not giving any extra premium for the stake held  by it for reliance naval as that subsidiary is also infact under fire by the stock market investors for few reasons, one of them obviously is non-profitability and litigations. Anyways, shipmaking business was never a fancy for investors in India, see history. It will be a different story when it becomes a proper defence manufacturing company which it is not at present, except the name only.
The only goodwill the company has is its power distribution business for Mumbai city. Nothing rest is greatly exciting.


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS-
As you can see the stock has been hovering around 650-350 range for more than a decade and made a swift high of 2000 plus for few months during 2007 bubble top.
The future of infrastructure sector does not look very golden in any immediate year as of now. Power generation, infrastructure, and PSU banks are a no-no investing them followed by likes of heavy engineering and such other. Its just hard to believe that so long a trading range on inclined on lower side of price band is going to break on above.
However, the stock has managed to hold its lower price band of many years, we do believe that it is neither an excellent discount buy not exciting chart set up. We have reasons to believe it may shed 25% or more PE value and could come to 250 and lower where it may find support for a while.

BECOME MEMBER FOR COMPLETE GUIDANCE, WITH PRICE LEVELS, SL, TARGET, AND TIMING, FOR INVESTMENTS AND TRADING BOTH.

Apr 23, 2018

Option Trading Call : Infosys


INFOSYS :

For May 2018 Expiry

Buy 1200 CALL OPTION at Rs.23.50
Become member for complete guidance.


Posted on 10:26:00 AM | Categories:

Apr 21, 2018

ENGINEERS INDIA : Short To Mid Term View For Investors & Traders


ENGINEERS INDIA :
CMP : 152.50
View: Exit/avoid investments, buy put calls, sell futures
Become member for complete strategy and timing.

As you can see in the chart, the monthly chart is not looking very good, the price to earnings ratio is also high around 25 for a public sector company which is not guzzling cash or in more or less infrastructure related businesses. Now election coming up next, such PSUs with macro businesses are going to get discounted little by little.
There is support around 145 levels, from which it might bounce back. But we believe ultimately it may go and test the major moving averages which are way down from current levels. And any correction in broader markets or sideways consolidating markets with dampened investor mood can also make it slide slowly to those levels.


Apr 16, 2018

CEAT LTD : Short Term Trading View And Some Words On Tyre Stocks


CEAT LTD: cmp 1611

The tyre stocks had been in an upswing before the recent Trump Tariff Tantrum correction set off in markets. However after about couple of months in that, it looks like we are all set to see new buying and upmoves in selected sectors again. One of them seems to be tyre stocks.
They have got the push to get out of the correction or consolidation by the falling rubber prices, the decision of Indian government to levy import duty on rubber and the huge brand value and investor favouritism created in tyre company such as MRF.
CEAT has been lagging in picking up with its other peers like Apollo Tyre and MRF which are almost now making new highs. CEAT, which also once played on the tunes of the sectoral theme with its peers has been slow in responding the rise in the peer group stocks and still down about 20% from its highs. One of the reason may be the not so exciting results in the previous quarter.
However, it looks like it is consolidating and likely to give good spurt on the upside with first target of 1700 and then reach its old highs of 2000.
We do not look tyre stocks as commodity business such as sugar, and all metals. Why? Because they have not behaved in that fashion. They have more behaved like a consumer and brand businesses. So, the point is for the medium and long term investors also this stocks are not a threat. History has good evidence of our argument.
A delivery trader can buy in spot, or try to trade with call options for april, or may or keep an eye to take a good entry price and gain on an almost sureshot move on the upside.

Possible Vulnerability To Indian Exports By Trump Tarriff Tantrums. USA Sues In WTO


 Indian exports up to $5.6 billion could be hit as the US pressures India for greater market access by declaring a review of the generalized system of preferences (GSP) through which Indian exporters get preferential market access to the US.
The GSP programme allows duty-free entry of 3,500 products from India, which benefits exporters of textiles, engineering, gems and jewellery and chemical products. The total US imports under GSP in 2017 was $21.2 billion, of which India was the biggest beneficiary with $5.6 billion, followed by Thailand ($4.2 billion) and Brazil ($2.5 billion).
The Trump administration has been accusing India of unfair trade practices and has challenged most of its export subsidies at the World Trade Organization (WTO). It has also not granted India an exemption on unilateral hike in steel and aluminium tariffs, unlike to its other strategic allies. On Friday, the US treasury department added India to the currency practices watch list saying New Delhi increased its purchase of foreign exchange by $56 billion in 2017 which does not appear necessary given its already robust foreign exchange reserves.
The US Trade Representative (USTR) on Friday announced that it is reviewing the GSP eligibility of India, along with Indonesia and Kazakhstan, based on concerns about the countries’ compliance with the programme.
For India, the GSP country eligibility review is based on concerns by the US dairy industry and medical device industry alleging Indian trade barriers affecting US exports in those sectors. India has very high import duties on dairy products to protect its domestic industry. It has also recently put price controls on medical devices like cardiovascular stents, drawing ire from big US pharma companies.
“India has implemented a wide array of trade barriers that create serious negative effects on US commerce. The acceptance of these petitions and the GSP self-initiated review will result in one overall review of India’s compliance with the GSP market access criterion,” USTR said.
A commerce ministry official speaking under condition of anonymity said though India is worried about the move, it hopes a majority of US industries which get cheaper intermediate products from India due to GSP benefits will support continuation of the programme. “We hope it won’t be easy to withdraw GSP benefits to India,” he added.
Abhijit Das, head of the Centre for WTO Studies at the Indian Institute of Foreign Trade, said given Trump’s tendency to take unilateral action, there could be threat to India’s continuous access to GSP. Das said India should be ready to drag the US to dispute settlement if US stops extending GSP to India on the grounds that India is creating market access barriers to the US.
Though GSP is a voluntary measure by the US and other developed countries, they need to be guided by firm WTO principles, Das said. In 2003, India won a case against the European Commission as the latter denied India GSP on textiles and drugs, making such preferences conditional to countries combating drug production and trafficking or protection of labour rights and environment.
However, Ajay Sahai, director general and CEO of the Federation of Indian Export Organizations, said India should not be too jittery about the announcement of a GSP review. “It seems to be a posturing from the US, signalling India that it should not join China in its disputes against the US on steel and aluminium as it wants to bargain hard with China.”
“I don’t think the US is reviewing its GSP policy. If on objective and transparent criteria, India graduates on some products, that is still fine. In every GSP review, we lose out on some products, as India becomes competitive and gains greater market share,” he added.

Apr 11, 2018

"India Would Remain Fastest-Growing Country Across Asia" Says ADB

India's economic growth will rise to 7.3 per cent this fiscal and further to 7.6 per cent in the next financial year, retaining the fastest-growing Asian economy tag, on back of GST and banking reforms. 

In its Asian Development Outlook (ADO), 2018, Manila-based ADB said, "risks to trade are high" and retaliatory actions could dent growth in the Asian region going forward. 
Indian economy grew 6.6 per cent in the last fiscal as it battled the lingering effects of demonetisation in 2016, businesses adjusting to goods and services tax (GST) in 2017, and a subdued agriculture. The country's economic growth was 7.1 per cent in 2016-17. 

With 7.3 per cent growth projected for this fiscal, India would be reversing the two-year declining trend. 

"Despite the short-term costs, the benefits of reform such as the recently implemented GST will propel India's future growth," ADB Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada said. 

Robust foreign direct investment flows attracted by liberalised regulations and the government steps to improve the ease of doing business will further bolster growth, Sawada said. 

The ADO said protectionist trade measures by the United States are yet to impact trade flows to and from Asia. 
"However, further action and retaliation against it (US trade tariffs) could undermine the business and consumer optimism that underlies the regional outlook (for Asia)," it said. 

With regard to China, it said the country will slow down from 6.9 per cent in 2017 to 6.6 per cent this year, and 6.4 per cent in 2019. 

"India would remain the fastest-growing country across Asia," ADB India Country Director Kenichi Yokoyama said. However, there are issues regarding rising NPAs and risks from crude oil prices rising above USD 70 a barrel, he said. 

He, further, said the impact of the US tariff hikes may not be much, but India "need to be cautious". 
"The biggest risk factor could be the crude oil price," Yokoyama said. 

ADB's growth projection of 7.3 per cent this fiscal is in line with that of rating agency Fitch, but a tad lower than RBI's forecast of 7.4 per cent. 

The ADO projected developing Asia to grow 6 per cent in 2018 and 5.9 per cent in 2019. 

It, however, said the risks for Asian region are mostly on the downside. 
"The big risk, of course, would be worsening trade friction. Another would be rapid capital outflows that could materialise if the US Federal Reserve needed to raise interest rates faster than markets expect. 
"Finally, the continued build up of private debt for some regional economies since the global financial crisis could undercut growth. Developing Asia is well positioned to respond to these shocks," it added. 

India's growth is expected to pick up further to 7.6 per cent in 2019-20 as efforts to strengthen the banking system and continued corporate deleveraging are likely to bolster private investment, the ADO said. 

ADB India Senior Economics Officer Abhijit Sen Gupta said "further reform to strengthen bank governance is needed". 

ADB projects global crude oil prices to remain around USD 65 a barrel in 2018 and USD 62 a barrel in 2019. 

Also, set to catalyse growth, are benefits from the GST as it mitigates geographic fragmentation and adds revenue to the exchequer, as well as further progress on fiscal consolidation and reform to promote FDI, the ADO said. 
It said the prospects for policy stimulus remain limited and there is risk of tight interest rate regime. 

"The deferment of fiscal consolidation, upside risks to inflation, and expected hikes in US interest rates in 2018 squeeze maneuvering room for policy rate cuts to stimulate growth. At the same time, the odds of a rate hike are low with the central bank indicating tolerance for slightly higher inflation and recognition of the need to nurture recovery. Consequently, the status quo is likely to hold in FY2018, albeit with some risk of monetary tightening," the ADO said. 
It projected inflation to average 4.6 per cent in FY2018 (2018-19), rising to 5.0 per cent in FY2019 with further firming of global commodity prices and strengthening of domestic demand. 

Mar 31, 2018

Chinese Dragon Yawns At Trump On Trade War Front


    China to import $8tn of goods in next five years: foreign minister
    China will import $8 trillion of goods and attract $600 billion of foreign investment in        the next five years, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said on Friday.
China’s overseas investment will reach $750 billion in the next five years, the foreign ministry said in a statement on its website, citing Wang at a conference in Vietnam.
Wang said China would widen market access and open up its financial sector.
The practices of unilateralism and protectionism would be a form of regression, and not only would they lead to a dead end, they would damage one’s own interests, he said.

Mar 20, 2018

The World Bank noted three biggest challenges before the Indian economy : March 2018


Temporary economic disruptions caused by demonetisation and the GST are over and India can grow at 7.5% in the next two years, but for the country to join the join the ranks of middle-income countries, it needs an 8% plus GDP growth for 30 years. This could be quite challenging as the historic trend show that even as India’s economic growth has been stable and resilient, the 8% growth lasted only one to two years, and corrected sharply in the years after.
The World Bank noted three biggest challenges before the Indian economy:
1. Managing Natural Resources
The World Bank said that the fundamental constraint to India’s long-run growth is the scarcity of natural resources. India can achieve the 8% growth rate only if a resource efficient growth path is adopted. After GST, the reforms should focus on cities to make them efficient by improving connectivity and transport infrastructure and by enhancing urban service delivery; agriculture by helping farmers avoid constraints from depleting resource bases, enhancing protecting water resources and focusing reforms on removing distortions in the electricity sector.
2. Generating Salaried Jobs
The World Bank said that India needs to focus on inclusive, productivity-led growth that generates salaried jobs for India’s growing population. Achieving this requires reforms in two areas: building an investment environment that is conducive for the development of high productivity firms requires easing bottleneck on firms and reforms should focus on developing a qualified workforce that meets the skill demands of a globally competitive industry.
3. Strengthening public sector
One of the biggest task ahead of the government is to address challenges to public sector effectiveness o ensure that reforms are effectively implemented and to meet the demands of the growing middle class. Improving governance in India involves reforms rather than simply increased investments.  In addition to enhancing the efficiency, effectiveness and accountability of the Indian public sector, reforms should also focus on adequately resourcing public service providers and improving the coordination between different layers of government, the World Bank said.

Feb 18, 2018

ICICI BANK : Short To Mid Term View

Indian markets have entered in a definite correction phase, anyways it was not showing steam as much as it should on the back of strong show that global markets were showing.
Banking sector was anyways the prime target for bears due to consequent bas quarterly results postings as well as the ongoing NPA mess. The sector remained in limelight and bulls made some short term fast money due to certain governmental intervention news which were expected not to sustain the movementom. 
In last week we saw biggest PSU bank scam or fraud uncover comprising the 2nd largest lender and involving with it almost more than 10 other banks including couple of private sector ones.
This is called bad becoming worst.
ICICI bank has had good run which we assume was purely based on the liquidity rush and many believing that this and AXIS bank were undervalued but this is belief was also badly hurt when it posted decline in profits and rise in provisions and NPA.
Looking at the technical picture (Chart for spot prices), we can see that it looks like it is going to test the 200 DMA of around 300 and below it probably go down around 270 to fill its gap up of late October 2017.
We can see how banks like AXIS is also falling to its original range levels of about 500 after going above 575/600 levels before few days after almost more than one year. 
On monthly chart also it is backing aways from a possible lethal double top pattern and a possible monthly bearish piercing or dark cloud cover candle stick pattern can also be formed due to sell off in coming days of the month.

Disclaimer: This and all material, research etc on this website is put for educational and information purpose only and before investing take advice of a professional advisor. 

Feb 12, 2018

Mid To Long Term View For Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Ltd.

APOLLO HOSPITALS ENTERPRISE LTD.
CMP : 1122.
VIEW : MID TERM.TO LONG TERM
STRATEGY AND UPDATES: NA

COMMENTARY :
Avoid this stock as we have initiated coverage for selling with an expected correction of almost 50% in next 1-3 years in the stock.


Feb 4, 2018

Detailed Highlights of India Union Budget for 2018-19 l Chart on How Stock Markets Performed On Past Budget Days l Commentary On How Markets Behave On Budget Days & Why

Detailed Highlights of Union Budget for 2018-19 -
Chart How Stock Markets Performed On Past Budget Days - 
Read some commentary at the end - 

THE BEHAVIOUR OF MARKET ON BUDGET DAY AND SOME OBSERVATIONS -

              The biggest feature of this budget for the markets was the introduction of LTCG which caused the biggest single day market sell off in more than one year. We believe the provision that no LTCG will be levied till shares sold upto march 2018 prompted the investors to rush and sell their holdings and rebuy them lateron. The government should have, in our opinion, made the law effective from 1 february itself, which could have removed the fundamental reason for investors to sell their holding to save on capital gains taxes accumulated by them. We are talking about almost half of market capitalization here. even if 20% market capitalization is churned the market invariably will see 5% and more decline.

                   Trying to decipher how markets moved from budget to budget and from budget day to end of year is not a lot or at all a meaningful exercise. In our opinion, budgets per se are never are driving force for the market in terms of its core momentum strength nor weakness. It never gets that from the budget. Our observations are either the market has already decided how to move according to the expectations from coming budget or it gives strong reactionary show on the day of budget or during few days ahead. The reactionary behaviour is more seen when some unexpected bad news is put upon the market such as the levy of LTCG in the present 2018-19 budget. The blows like LTCG are not very common announcements for markets out of budget days, so on most other budgets, when the markets are already in strong and clear up or down trend momentum' remain kind of 70% of times a non event type. During the other 30% of times, the market are not in clear directional trend themselves, save taking any clue from markets. 
                        Also, as per some thumb rule behaviour of market, when market is in strong uptrend and there is lack of any bad news, then market will tend to rise, as no bad news is also a good news in market parlance during certain circumstances. On occasions, when the market is in downtrend and gets no bad news then it may just stay where it is or give a small reactionary up move or showcase of strength of a day or two and then resume downtrend. Of many important conclusions we can derive, one is, the markets is that unless there is some dramatic bad news causing compulsory huge sell of, the markets usually do not take budget as much seriously, and resume its usual trend or sideways moves of hitherto.
Also as per the 'theory of discounting' if market has already discounted the good news, it may fall, and if market has already discounted the bad news, it's possible that it may rise. Again these maxim should be observed in the light of the prevailing trend whether up or down. 
Another observation, our research team has bound down as conclusion is that budgets are never decisive of market move and mostly supportive of prevailing trend, reactionary for few days or non event on other occasions. Having said that, budgetary provisions may bring dramatic change in stocks of particular sector, for e.g an import duty decrease or export duty rise on say tyres may change the movement of tyre stocks for the next 12 months as the whole EPS and PE facts will alter which are main cause of stock rises most of the times (barring crazy bull run which is only 20% of the entire rally of any bull market, in terms of time frame). Similarly when there is any perks to the middle classs which might possibly increase their disposable income, such as tax breaks in IT returns or increase in tax slab limits etc.; these gives fillip to consumer durable goods firms stocks as more disposable income in hands of middle class income group means more sales for these firms. So, sector specific importance of any budget will continue to remain. Otherwise as stated on 90% of occassions the budget is not a make or break even or even paradigm shifting or trend deciding turn for markets. This is because the markets are very smart these days. They have already analysed the present and pas economic, business and commerce situation in the country and know the possible political upheavals and figure out 90% of the time how 90% of budget would be and discounted 90% of the medium to long term move of the same. 

BELOW ARE IMPORTANT HIGHLIGHTS NOT OF JUST BUDGETARY ANNOUNCEMENTS BUT ALSO THE ESTIMATES AND REVISIONS.

**FY19 ESTIMATES**
* Fiscal deficit target pegged at 3.3% of GDP
* Fiscal deficit seen at 6.24 trln rupees
* Net market borrowing pegged at 4.62 trln rupees
* Net short-term borrowing 170 bln rupees
* Gross market borrowing pegged at 6.06 trln rupees
* Provide 646 bln rupeeS for switch/buyback FY19 gilts by Mar
* Gilts repayments 1.43 trln rupees
* Nominal GDP growth seen 11.5%
* Revenue deficit pegged at 2.2% of GDP
* Revenue deficit seen at 4.16 trln rupees
* Total expenditure seen at 24.42 trln rupees
* Disinvestment target at 800 bln rupees
* Gross tax revenue 22.7 trln rupees
* GST collections seen 7.44 trln rupees
* CGST collections seen 6.04 trln rupees
* Transfer to states seen at 1.43 trln rupees
* Excise mop-up pegged at 2.60 trln rupees
* RBI surplus, PSU bank dividend seen 548 bln rupees
* Total infra spend at 5.97 trln rupees
* Communication receipts seen 486.6 bln rupees
* Fertiliser subsidy 700 bln rupees
* Defence outgo 2.82 trln rupees
* Pension outgo 1.68 trln rupees
* Dividend from PSUs seen at 525 bln rupees
* Food subsidy 1.69 trln rupees
* Agri credit target at 11 trln rupees
* Transport outgo seen at 1.35 trln rupees
* Small savings receipts seen 750 bln rupees
* Rural development outgo seen 1.38 trln rupees
* Customs mop-up pegged at 1.13 trln rupees
* Interest outgo seen 5.76 trln rupees
* Income tax pegged at 5.29 trln rupees
* Farm, allied activities outgo 638.36 bln rupees
* Gilts buyback pegged at 719 bln rupees
* Fertiliser subsidy seen 701 bln rupees
* Corporation tax pegged at 6.21 trln rupees
* Petroleum subsidy seen 249.3 bln rupees
* To conduct 280.6 bln rupees of gilt switches FY19
* To issue 650 bln rupees of bonds to PSU banks FY19
**FY18 REVISED**
* Direct tax revenue up 12.6%
* Fiscal deficit 3.5% of GDP
* Gilts buyback at 570 bln rupees
* Gilts switches 430 bln rupees
* Dividend from PSUs revised to 548 bln rupees
* RBI surplus, PSU bank dividend revised to 516 bln rupees
* Small savings receipts 1.03 trln rupees
* Non-tax revenue to see shortfall
* GST revenue for only 11 months
* Divestment target revised to 1 trln rupees
* Hope to grow 7.2-7.5% in H2 FY18
* Exports expected to grow 15% in FY18
**DIRECT TAXES**
* Propose only modest change in long-term capital gains tax
* To tax long-term capital gains on shrs over 100,000 rupees at 10%
* Strong case for long term capital gains tax on shares
* Tax on short-term capital gains from shares unchanged at 15%
* 200 bln rupee more revenue on long-term capital gains tax
* To tax dividend given by equity schemes of MFs at 10%
* No long-term capital gain tax on shares till Jan 31, 2018
* Eases rules on long-term capital gains tax on realty
* Anti tax evasion steps led to extra 900-bln-rupee revenue
* Seeing buoyancy in personal income tax collection
* 80-bln-rupee revenue loss on income tax standard deduction
* To allow 40,000 rupees standard deduction in income tax
* Personal income tax rates unchanged
* Senior citizen exemption on interest income up at 50,000 rupee
* 25% corporate tax for cos with up to 2.5 bln rupee turnover
* Corp tax to remain 30% for cos above 2.5-bln-rupee turnover
* To forego 70-bln-rupee revenue on corp tax benefit for MSME
* Lower corporate tax rate to aid 99% MSMEs
* Announces tax sops for farm producer cos
* Propose post-harvest tax incentives
* Health, education cess increased to 4%
* To get 110 bln rupees more revenue from health, edu cess
* Tax sops for transactions at international fincl centres
* To amend IT Act to roll out e-assessment

**INDIRECT TAXES**
* CBEC to be renamed Central Board of Direct Tax and Customs
* Excise on unbranded diesel cut by 2 rupee to 6.33 rupee/ltr
* Excise on unbranded petrol cut by 2 rupee to 4.48 rupee/ltr
* Plan changes in customs duty act for ease of doing business
* Social welfare surcharge of 3% on import of some goods
* To raise customs duty on certain items
* To raise customs duty on mobiles to 20% from 15%
* Custom duty on certain TV parts raised to 15%
* Customs duty on mobile phones raised to 20% from 15% * Custom duty on raw cashew cut to 2.5%
* Import duty on diamond up at 5% vs 2.5% earlier
* Crude palm kernel oil, corn oil customs duty up at 30%
* Crude safflower oil, coconut oil customs duty up at 30%
* Crude groundnut oil, cottonseed oil customs duty up at 30%
* Social welfare surcharge on import of gold, silver at 3%
* Social welfare surcharge on import of petrol, diesel at 3%
* Import duty on cut, polished coloured gemstone 5% vs 2.5%

**FY20 & FY21 ESTIMATES** * FY20 revenue deficit pegged at 1.8% of GDP
* FY20 fiscal deficit target pegged at 3.1% of GDP * FY21 revenue deficit pegged at 1.6% of GDP
* FY21 fiscal deficit target pegged at 3.0% of GDP

**MACROECONOMY MATTERS**
* Firmly on course to achieve 8% plus growth
* Achieved average 7.5% growth in first 3 years of govt * This Budget to consolidate gains of last 4 years' budgets
* India stands out as the fastest growing economy in world
* India a $2.5-trln economy now
* India to become fifth largest economy very soon
* Govt has implemented fundamental structural reforms
* Promised to reduce poverty, build strong India
* Direct transfer mechanism is a global success story
* Will focus on health, infrastructure, senior citizens
* Focus on 'ease of living' for common man
* To move ahead on ease-of-doing business
* Demonetisation has reduced cash in circulation
* Recapitalised banks have better capacity to support growth
* Indirect tax system made simpler with GST
* FDI increased due to govt actions
* Manufacturing sector back on growth path
* There's a premium on honesty because of govt's reforms

**AGRICULTURE**
* FY19 Budget aims to strengthen agri, rural economy
* Seek paradigm shift to double farmers' income by 2022
* Govt committed to welfare of farmers
* Govt to create mechanism for post harvest facilities
* MSP hikes not enough, farmers must be able to get benefits
* NITI Aayog to make robust system for fair price to farmers
* Next kharif crop MSP to be at least 1.5 times of cost
* Emphasis on generating gainful farm, non-farm jobs
* Focus on low-cost farming, higher selling price
* Institutional system for farm goods price, demand forecast
* Export of farm commodities to be liberalised
* Agri export potential $100 bln
* To launch Operation Green in line with Operation Flood
* Allocate 5 bln rupees for Operation Green
* Allocate 2 bln rupees for medicinal, aromatic crops
* To encourage women self-help groups for organic farming
* Cluster-based models to be developed for horticulture crops
* e-NAM to be exempt from APMC regulations
* 470 APMCs connected to e-NAM, rest to be connected by Mar
* To develop, upgrade 22,000 rural haats to agricultural mkts
* To allocate 20 bln rupees for farm development fund
* Favourable tax treatment for farm mfg organisations
* Kisan credit card benefit also to animal husbandry, fishing
* To launch bamboo mission for 12.9 bln rupees
* To set up 42 mega food parks for farm exports

**POLICY STEPS**
* Aim to lower central govt debt-to-GDP ratio to 40%
* To take all steps to eliminate use of crypto-currencies * To encourage blockchain technology in payment system (still confusion will prevail over this whole crypto currencies conundrum)
* To provide 30.73 bln rupees for Digital India plan
* To take more steps to curb black money
* Govt committed to revised fiscal glide path
* Prepared to accept key recommendations of FRBM committee
* NITI Aayog to set up plan for artificial intelligence R&D
* 100 bln rupees for animal husbandry, fisheries develop fund
* To set up 2 new funds of total 100 bln rupees for fishery
* To set up 500,000 WiFi hotspots for rural connectivity
* To review refinancing policies under MUDRA plan
* Online loan facility for MSMEs to be revamped
* To address bad loan problems of MSMEs
* 37.94 bln rupees for MSME credit support
* Job creation core of policy planning
* To take steps for improving start-up funding environment
* PSUs to be part of e-trade receivables platform
* To link e-trade receivables platform with GSTN
* 3 trln rupees lending target for MUDRA plan FY19 * Smart City scheme outlay 2.04 trln rupees
* Reforms in stamp duty regime in consultation with states
* To set up unified fincl mkt regulator for GIFT city
* To introduce pay-as-you-use toll system
* Identified 372 reform actions for ease-of-doing business * To infuse more equity in FCI
* Plan to assign every enterprise in India a unique ID
* To bring out domestic defence production policy

**INDUSTRY, INFRASTRUCTURE**
* To allocate 71.5 bln rupees to textiles sector FY19
* Allocation for food processing sector 14 bln rupees FY19
* To expand airports' capacity to handle 1 bln trips a year
* To construct tunnel under Sela Pass
* To award water supply contracts worth 194.28 bln rupees

**RAILWAY PLANS**
* Rail track renewal target at 3,600 km
* Special attention being given to rail track maintenance
* Capex for Railways pegged at 1.48 trln rupees FY19 * 170 bln rupees for suburban rail infra in Bengaluru
* FY19 allocation at 110 bln rupee for Mumbai Rail Transport
* To eliminate 4,267 unmanned railway crossings in 2 years
* All trains to soon have WiFi system, CCTVs

**FINANCIAL SECTOR & MARKETS**
* RBI norms to nudge cos to access bond mkts for fund raising
* To monetise PSUs using via invest trusts from next year
* SEBI to mull asking large cos to meet 25% of debt from mkt
* Regional rural banks to be allowed to raise money from mkts
* To merge 3 public sector insurance cos into 1
* To list entity post merger of 3 public sector insurance cos * To explore more ETFs, including debt-based ETFs
* Govt to have separate policy for hybrid fincl instruments
* To frame policy to develop gold as asset class
* RBI to transfer NHB shareholding to govt
* Gold monetisation policy to be revamped
* RBI Act being tweaked to allow standing deposit facility

**SOCIAL SECTOR**
* To set up dedicated affordable housing fund under NHB
* Aim 5.1 mln rural houses under affordable housing plan * Aim to give houses to all poor by 2022
* Aim to build 20 mln more toilets under Swachh Bharat
* More than 60 mln toilets built under Swachh Bharat plan
* To give 80 mln LPG connections under Ujjwala scheme * To spend 1 trln rupees on education infra over 4 years
* To subsidise removal of crop residue to tackle pollution
* To set up Ekalavya schools for scheduled tribes
* To treat education holistically pre-nursery to class 12
* To give 40 mln power connections under Saubhagya Yojana
* To move from blackboard to digital board
* Allocate 99.75 bln rupees for social security plan FY19
* Allocation to National Livelihood Mission 57.50 bln rupees
* Allocate 14.3 trln rupees for rural infra FY19 * Allocate 26 bln rupees under ground water irrigation plan
* Health protection scheme to cover 100 mln poor families
* Allocate 12 bln rupees for health wellness centres
* To launch PM research fellow plan for 1,000 BTech students
* To set up 2 new schools of planning & architecture
* 600 mln Jan Dhan accts to get micro insurance benefit
* 24 new medical colleges to be set up via hospital upgrade
* Aim 1 medical college for every 3 Parliament constituency
* 6-bln-rupee nutritional support for Tuberculosis patients
* Govt progressing towards universal health coverage
* Health scheme to have 500,000 rupee/family/yr benefit
* Allocate 566.2 bln rupees for Scheduled Castes welfare
* Cover all poor family in PM insurance plan in mission mode
* 187 projects sanctioned under Ganga cleaning programme
* Allocate 391.35 bln rupees for welfare of Scheduled Tribes
* Govt women employees to contribute 8% to EPF in first 3 yrs
* To contribute 12% of new employees' wages in EPF for 3 yrs
* To supply water to all homes in 500 cities under Amrut plan
* LIC 8% assured income plans for sr citizen extended to 2020

**MISCELLANEOUS**
* Special scheme to fight pollution in Delhi-NCR
* To develop 10 places as iconic tourism destinations
* Salary hike for President, Vice-President, governors
* New law to govern salaries of lawmakers
* Lawmakers' salary to be revised every 5 yrs