NATURAL GAS FUTURES: BULLISH IN MEDIUM TERM TO LONG
TERM, BEARISH ON IMMEDIATE BASIS
NATURAL GAS IS A STABLE
COMMODITY TO TRADE IN COMPARISON. THE MOST STABLE COMMODITY IS NICKEL, FOLLOWED
BY COPPER THEN BASE METALS COMMODITIES, THEN CRUDE OIL, AND GOLD AND SILVER AT
LAST ON MCX.
HOWEVER, IT GIVES 2-3 MOVES
IN A MONTH WHICH ARE ABOUT 5-10% IN 2-3 TRADING DAYS IN A RAW.
THE
OUTLOOK FOR NATURAL GAS ON THE IMMEDIATE BASIS IS BEARISH. IT IS TRADING AROUND
221. IT CAN GO DOWN TO TEST 205 LEVELS. DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BREAK 200. EVEN IF
IT BREAKS THEN ALSO IT WILL LIKELY BOUNCE BACK RAPIDLY.
IT WAS A
VERY GOOD LEVEL TO SHORT ABOVE 230 ON WHICH IT WAS TRADING FOR LAST FEW TRADING
SESSIONS.
HOWEVER,
RISK TAKERS CAN STILL SHORT AROUND CURRENT LEVELS OR PATIENCE TRADERS CAN WAIT
FOR IT TO AGAIN COME AROUND 230 LEVELS.
THIS IS
TYPICALLY NOT A COMMODITY THAT YOU CAN CORRELATE OR TRACK VIS-A-VIS THE DOLLAR
INDEX, THE RUPEE MOVE AGAINST DOLLAR AND EVEN TRY TO CORRELATE WITH CRUDE OIL.
THIS IS
A COMMODITY WITH HIGHLY COMPLICATED AND UNCERTAIN PRESENT GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL
SET UP.
THIS
COMMODITY IS NOT LIKELY TO GIVE BREAK OUT EASILY FOR FORMATION OF NEW RANGES.
IT IS EASIER TO TRADE NEAR THE LOW AND HIGH ENDS AND TOUGH IN BETWEEN.
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