World Health Day: Book on Mental Fitness for Traders

Signs of a Losing Trader

1. He doesn't have a trading System.
2. He doesn't know the different between trading and investing.
3. He acts on impulse and follow every bit of piece of news. His eyes remain on CNBC in hotel while his    girlfriend is talking him something.
4. He doesn't have a trading plan strategy.
5. He let's his losses become bigger. He is more lose averse than risk-averse.
6. He doesn't trade with probability assumptions.
7. He is undisciplined.
8. Tries to read too much into the news.
9. Mistake of overtrading and exhaustive trading.
10. Lack of sound Money-management plan.
11. Lack of risk management techniques.
12. Does not have control on his emotions such as greed, fear, rage, depression.

Gujarat Hotels Ltd.-Paid Members Enjoying Luxury of PROFITS!!!

Just CLICK the below link where we Strongly RECOMMENDED Gujarat Hotels Ltd. which was given to our OPERATOR BASED SURESHOT members:
http://www.meghainvestments.com/2010/03/operator-based-call-from-hotel-sector.html

Now Just See How It has crossed all the TARGETS...
Get OPERATOR BASED SURESHOT CALLS-Weekly one call.
Join Today. Dial-09377008708.

Power Punch delivery calls given to paid members

GMDC-cheating on charts formation and triangle on daily charts -power rally above 150 stop loss 135 target 178

 IDFC- 3rd and explosive wave start on hourly charts stop loss 160 target 172

 SYNDICATE BANK-3rd and explosive wave start on hourly charts stop loss 85 target 97

CRUDE OIL AND PICK THEORY

EXCLUSIVE CRUDE OIL REPORT

Yes, Crude Oil Prices can touch to New Highs and Beyond...

“ACCORDING TO ‘PICK OIL THEORY’ THE PRICES OF CRUDE OIL MAY TOUCH $300 PER BARREL”

BELL CURVE:

The production of crude oil normally follows  the shape of a ‘bell-curve’ in which we can say it to be peak production when on the graph this curve comes in the centre top. At this level the production has been peaked i.e. this is the time and quantum of maximum production and from here on the production decreases. (see figure). Paring some exceptions this phenomena is true for a single oil well, a whole oil-field, a country and the whole wordl.

“Peak-Oil doesn’t mean we will become ‘oil-less’, but is surely means we become ‘cheap oil-less”.

The pick oil theory which was made by American Geologist King Herbert, is also known as Herbert Pick Theory. According to this theory’s conclusions, due to declining exploration and sharply decreasing production ; we may see tremendous blast and rocket pace rise in prices of fossil fuels, mainly crude oil. This Pick Oil theory works on the basis of principle based on long-term production and declining reserve rate of fossil energy sources such as coal, crude oil, natural gas etc.

We will try to evaluate this theory through various facts, figures, logics and arguments in this special ‘$300 CRUDE OIL SPECIAL REPORT’.

-       There are many reasons behind the strengthening fears of decrease in the reserves/availability of traditional sources of energy such as fossil fuels (like crude oil etc.)  such as,

o   The technology relating to acquisition and analysis of geological information, is improving day by day.

FKONCO (EARLIER DABUR PHARMA) BROKEN TRIANGLE:

BSE CODE: 532545


Catch on the Opening bell on Monday with stop loss of 115, target 160, just see broken triangle.

Orient Paper Ltd.- 5th Wave Started...

This is the chart of Orient Paper and Industries Ltd.


Wave 5th to start.
Buy choice of your quantity and have patience for target of 60 and yes never forget to keep stop loss of 47.

More from Charlie Munger- On Economy, booms and busts

        Here is some more on video tuting from Charlie Munger, Warren Buffet's partner in Berkshire Hathaway. Where he talks about booms, busts, on economy, about Allan Greenspan,  about their CocaCola investment, about succession of Berkshire Hathaway, about 'the locker room culture' in Wall-Street and many more things worth giving an ear for a serious student of investing and economy. 
Below are excerpts:

• Be ready to face 50% decline in your quoted value of investments at 2 to 3 ocassions.
• Economy runs worst without a system of wise restraints.
• Markets needs to be dampened for this.
• Don't go way too far in financial deregulation.
• Talks about 'idiot boom' and 'idiot expansion of consumption'.
• He says Allan Greenspan is his hero because he accepted that 'he is a horse's ass'.
• Wall-street tracks and rewards ''locker-room culture'. and they do a lot of damage to investors like Buffet and he.
• The reasons ideas such as Buffett's are not so popular is because 'they are so simple and so obvious'
• Keep a mindset of a person buying a whole business.
• He and Buffett speaks normally every week only.
• Berkshire is probably the most 'decentralized corporate' in the world.

Charlie Munger talks "investing filters"

           Charlie Munger is not very much known. Although he is a second part heading the Berkshire Hathaway Group for which Warren Buffett is World Famous and has established himself as the invincible investment guru of ages. It was Charlie Munger who made Buffett take decision on buying shares of Cocacola Company, which is Warren Buffet's one of the top five investments. He often say Charlie taught him things which he did not know out of the Benjamin-Dodd mathematics.We will try and attempt put more from Charlie Munger to see if find more gems in investing which could be undiscovered.

Rajesh Exports Ltd.-TGT Achieved BEFORE Time!! 50% Return!!

1st Just CLICK the below LINK: Clearly Shown the "Cup & Handle Pattern":

http://www.meghainvestments.com/search/label/rajesh%20exports

Now All Know It is Trading Above 100+, that is Rs.118...Giving A return of 50% from our Strong BUY Recommendation levels of Rs.50.


FOR MORE SENSIBLE AND GENUINE INVESTING RECOMMENDATION, BECOME A MEMBER- DIAL 09377008708.

Gujarat NRE Coke: Shooting beyond TGT of 90!!!

Hit the below LINK, where just before few days, told all strongly to BUY GUJ NRE COKE without worry: http://www.meghainvestments.com/search/label/guj%20nre%20coke

And NOW TRADING at above TGT of 90+...Meeting Targets is not our goal, Beating Targets is our conviction"

The AVERAGE should be better than the AVERAGE

            It should always be a trader's target to not become better but become better than the average. Because all counts is comparative competitiveness in markets. If Einstein is not trading then you don't have to prepare to compete with him. You don't need to be the best pr the smartest. Just remember this to win in any market: "Average should be better than the average". There will be people who don't learn from mistakes and who will continue to continue to do mistakes. Your job is to do them and take their money before or either anyone else does that. Yes, thats trading!. You have to take benefit before his days are over. Trade with an attitude of rising ABOVE AVERAGE. And the market consists of these 'Averages' which always remain above the Average.

Gokul Refolis

Gokul Refoils:
Dont Miss my target 72, your sl 59.
Rs.500 crore real estate in Ahmedabad.
10 point rectangle triangle.
Yesterday who bought 6.50lakh shares?

Be Technical NOT Skeptical

"A Skeptic who doesn't like prices rising randomly, continuously, without reasons is ill-suited for bull markets"

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT FOR TRADERS AND INVESTORS

FUNDAMENTAL STOCK PICK

ZYDUS WELLNESS LTD.

RECOMMENDATION:

book profit/Avoid new investments/under weight.

About the Company:

After Cadila group acquired Carnation Nutra Analogue Foods from its earlier promoters, Cadila Healthcare demerged its Consumer products business in to CNFL and renamed CNFL to Zydus Wellness.

The company has very popular brands Sugar Free-the low calorie sweetener, Nutralite-the premium table spread and EverYuth-a specialty skin care range.

Sugar free-India’s largest sweetener

Having 78% market share, with a presence in both aspartames as well sucralose categories, Sugar Free enjoys a top of the mind recall in the minds of calorie conscious consumers.

Making a foray in the low calorie beverage market, the division successfully extended the Sugar Free brand name to launch its soft drink Sugar Free D-lite.

Nutralite-butter brand

'Nutralite' India's leading table spread offers several benefits for the health conscious and fitness conscious consumer as it is cholesterol free, has no hydrogenated fats and no trans fats. Low in saturated fats, Nutralite is also enriched with Vitamins A, D and E.

Ever youth-skin care

The specialty range of skin care products are marketed by the division under the umbrella name 'EverYuth'. The brand today enjoys the No.1 position in the scrub and peel-off categories and is the 2nd largest selling face wash brand in India

Having good products and strong customer base why we are under weighting the stock of Zydus Wellness?

First reason valuation is not justified in terms of sales growth and profit growth.

Second reason batter opportunity available at good valuation.

Let’s check the fundamentals of the stock.

Debt-free status: 100% debt-free-good for long term sustainable growth.

P/E multiple 42% vary high and above sales and profit growth rate.

PBV: Price to book value 18 times.

PCF: Price to cash flow 41 times.

Dividend yield just 0.39%.

So over all valuation is high and with no big margin of safety at current market price.

So we are underweighting the stock and recommending clients to book profit or avoid new investments in this stock.

MUTUAL FUND PICK:

Franklin India Blue-chip Fund

Recommendation:

Buy.

Ration: Good for long term conservative investors.

COMMODITY UPDATE:

Those who are regular readers of my week report knows many time I have describe views based on Dow theory and complex theory wave pattern.

Hear in this article I have expressed my view on gold based on Dow theory, wave patter and head and shoulder patter.

First chart is COMEX gold (USA):

We have shown wave structures which is as below,

Wave 1(down) 1226 to 1075.

Wave 2(up) 1075 to 1161.

Wave 3(down) 1161 to 1044.

Wave 4(up) 1044 to 1130.

Wave 5 down?

As per wave structure and calculations target of wave 5 will be 900 to 850.

If you see the wave structure which shows lower tops and lower bottoms.

Now to continue with this pattern gold needs to go below 1044.

Three consecutive and weekly closes below 1044 will confirm the down wave pattern.

Second chart is MCX gold:

Look at the chart which is forming higher tops and higher bottoms.

Now last higher bottom is 15950, now to break this higher tops and higher bottom formation gold needs to go and sustain below 15950, but our gold price is largely dependence on COMEX we will filter price by 3% and will confirm the bearish trend below 15450.

Along with this gold is forming large head and shoulder pattern of 4400 points.

Confirming head shoulder will come by two ways once comex gold gives three consecutive close below 1044 and mcx gold close below 15450 my target will be 12500.

US DOLLAR INDEX

From 75 levels I am bullish on us dollar index and now has crossed 81 mark.

I have attached chart which shows wave pattern.

Wave 1(up) 72.23 to 78.45

Wave 2(down) 78.45 to 76.60

Wave 3(up) 78.60 to 81.34

Wave 4(down) 81.34 to 79.51

Wave 5 up start above 81.34

Now if you mark this is forming higher tops and higher bottom ,now to start 5^th wave of up dollar needs to close 3 consecutive close above 81.34 then as per wave calculation my target 85.

If dollar get strong up to my target levels then I expect vertical fall across the commodities/gold/silver/metals.

GLOBAL MARKET

I have attached chart of S&P 500 of America.

Look at the chart index is forming higher tops and higher bottoms with this see it is forming 5 wave pattern.

If index close 3 consecutive days and weekly above 1178 then as per wave count my target is 1333 and 1397.

As per time series from low of 675 this is 13 month so this can change the trend but if it conclude the bullish condition then we will see another 4 month rally in US market and above target.

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK

Support at 5238/5180/5130

Resistance at 53010/5351/5387

Market is rising with lots of liquidity pumping By Fiis and domestic’s institutions (many time told in my fundamental analysis)

After constant rise from budget we are still below last high of 17800 and 5300 (cash market) respectively sensex and nifty ,yes we have not broken the lower bottom of 15300 and 4500 for nifty but we need to cross and substation above 17800 and 5300 with vary good volume.

If the above condition happens then we have given Elliott wave analysis of “common flat a-b-c” pattern and which will take sensex to 19300/19600 and in last leg it will cross 21000 mark also.

But we need to sustain above 17800 for quite some time say for 4 consecutive weeks, last time after Dubai fall sensex has taken out the 17500 levels but it sustain above 17500 for 2 weeks and panic start so this time we need to close above 17500 for at least 4 week thereafter we will see the next up move from hear.

In technical analysis every penny counts, still after such a rise we have not cross the high and in my last report I have argued about “head and shoulder” pattern and if we are not able to cross the high 17800 and 5300 then problem is their and doors for down side should be cautioned.

The rules of the game (stock market) is to be in direction of major trend and get out when the trend has reached the stage where almost everyone has become complacent and careless.

MOMENTUM CALLS

Market is at high speed and if you don’t wear helmet while you running bike at 100 speeds your life is at risk.

Hear we suggest you some trading calls but we also suggest you to buy April month put options to hedge you buying position because market is running on high speed and any single bed news will create vertical fall and you may loose significantly.

TATA MOTORS

Buy with stop loss 725 targets 770/782.

EVEREST KANTO

Buy with stop loss 115 targets 130/145.

IFCI

Buy above 53 stop loss 47 target 64.

GE SHIPPING

Buy with stop loss 290 target 308/318.

GVK POWER

Buy with stop loss 41 targets 49.

NMDC

Buy with stop loss 282 target 310/325.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“I am comfortable if we double our money in three years”

-Warren Buffett.

Successful Speculation

Successful speculation implies taking risks when the odds are in your favour.

Vascon engineers Ltd on Fire!!

Before few days ago recommended VASCON ENGINEERS LTD.
 1st Target Achieved of Rs.150...Now 165 Confirmed.

Funny Quote

Fundamental Analysis= Something is bought and the given targets are achieved long time, say year or more after recommendation.


Technical Analysis= Something is bought and the given targets are met in shorter than the given time frame.




Sent by Sunil from Mumbai.
Caution: Take it as funny only and not seriously.

S&P 500: Wave 5th to start?

Before Few Days Ago We Have written That "three constitutive close above 1128 will take to 1160 /1175 levels",and just see yesterday when you were sleeping it touched our target!!!


If you had missed to read it-then click this link: http://www.meghainvestments.com/search/label/global%20markets


NOW WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THIS STAGE?

------>>>>If closes above 1178 for 3 Consecutive days and Weekly close then wave 5 can take up to 1333/1397-----<<<<<


Click on the below chart to understand more: