GOLD COMPLETE 4 WAVE,BELOW $1040 WILL START WAVE 5

3 CONSTITUTIVE + WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW $1040 WILL START WAVE  5 
AS PER WAVE COUNT TARGET WILL BE BETWEEN $900 TO $850.

YES BELOW 1040 HUGE UNWINDING FROM HEDGE FUNDS


STREET WALKER SAYS NO IS READY TO BUY 191 TONNES OF GOLD FROM IMF!!!!!!!!!!

GOLD BELOW 16410 WILL KISS 15950 SOON

Sell in truck load below 16410 ,your stop loss 16800
will kiss 16312,16140,15950

below 15950 all round blood bath and bulls will be hang !

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT FOR TRADERS AND INVESTORS

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK

SUPPORT AT 4700/4600/4550

RESISTANCE AT 4907/4970/5050

(1)  TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ARGUMENTS

Trend reversal or correction a million dollar question

11% correction so far from 5300 to 4700

Let’s paint the scenario to give answer of above question a trend reversal or correction by two way (1) technical analysis arguments (2) fundamental analysis arguments.

Last week we have given analysis with 5 different theories and one level was key which is 15300.

As long as we are holding this support level buy on dips is good strategy.

Hear with this report we have attach chart of sensex which shows index is forming “a-b-c common flat”/triangle formation on Elliott wave theory.

If sensex holds key levels of 15300 post budget then wave 3^rd will start with target of 19300/19600 and this wave will be explosive in nature.

As per wave theory wave 1^st made by initial traders and investors with contrarian call on market.

When the corrective wave 2^nd end and wave 3^rd start with breaching wave 1^st this rally again catches attention of initial traders /investors who were holding long position from wave 1^st and not exit on down wave 2^nd at this time they become more confident about the market rise and the same time price and volume both rise at faster pace, because those who have left opportunity to enter in wave 2^nd and those who have buy in wave 1^st both will start entering in to market.

So technically we assume that if index holds 15300 without any bed news from budget then explosive wave 3^rd to start for target of 19300/19600

Typical Elliott wave and Dow theory follower will keep stop loss of 15300 and will enter above 17500/17800 to catch the rally up to 19300/19600 levels.

(2)  FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS ARGUMENTS

Improved indicators like industrial production, export data, quartery results indicating recovery of Indian economy.

In Indian market there are lots of money on sideline to invest post budget.

Life Insurance Corporation of India has planned to invest Rs 10000 crores by March end.

If we analyze the last quarter data of insurance company, they all together have collected nearly Rs 30000 crores, if assume all premiums will be paid by all policy holders the again this quarter Rs 30000 crores of money flow come to capital market.

Along with this we have seen net in-flow in all major mutual fund houses, which are currently staying on sideline and waiting for budget.

So there is no problem of liquidity from domestic front.

Big problem at this juncture is high fiscal deficit with rising inflation.

As per government agenda –fiscal deficit will not be a big problem because government will fetch Nearly Rs 50000 crores annually from dis-investments program.

Also there are 3G auctions underway and nearly RS 35000 crores will come in government kitty and this will help to come down fiscal deficit.

Hiking petroleum products will also help to come down fiscal deficit.

Now the second big problem is inflation.

If inflation is with the higher growth then it is good for economy, as prices of goods are rising with production with rising income levels.

Price rise due to higher and genuine demand not because of lower production, rising production of goods will translate in to GDP and income levels of households so inflation will not be a big worry.

In short run market may move according to technical levels but in the long run it move along with economy and corporate earnings.

Investments guru of world BENJAMIN GRAHAM says in short run stock market is voting machine and in the long run it is weighing machine.

We believe that there are ample opportunities available which can yield higher returns.

These have to UN covered through research and meticulous stock selection.

In such scenario active portfolio management is likely to outperform passive strategies.

In India we will have good growth under insurance sector (particular ULIP) which will pump long term money in to Indian market.

Along with insurance sector online mutual fund will also help to tap the rural and urban money vary fast in long run.

MUTUAL FUND PICK

JM MID CAP FUND-AVOID

This fund fails to deliver impressive returns and constantly underperforming its benchmark index.

CONCLUSION:

So over all both on technical and fundamental arguments we believe this is not trend reversal and just a correction and trader and investor should find out value buying in market.

BUDGET EXPECTIONS:

Increase in excise duties.

Raise the service tax rate to 12% from 10%.

Increase Central Value Added Tax (Cenvat).

Road map for the introduction of the key direct and indirect tax reforms,

(1)  direct tax code (DTC)

(2)  Goods & Services Tax (GST)

Three important fiscal bills,

(1)   Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority.

(2)   Insurance Bill.

(3)   Banking Regulation (Amendment) Bill.

EXIT CALLS:

EXIDE IND: As per our SPECIAL TECHNICAL THEORY, this stock could crash to Rs.50.

SHRIRAM TRANSPORT: As per our SPECIAL TECHNICAL THEORY, this stock could crash to R.250.

Most of the readers following us for more than two years know HOW THE SENSEX CRASHED TO 11192, A LEVEL WE HAMMERED FOR NEARLY CLOSE TO 10 MONTHS! YES THIS WAS THE MIRACLULOUS RESULT OF OUR THIS SPECIAL TECHNICAL THEORY. WE CALL IT MIRACLE BECAUSE WE DON’T UNDERSTAND ITS FORMULA BUT THE FACT IS THAT IT WORKS.

NOT JUST THAT SEVERAL OTHER STOCK, COMMODITIES AND INTERNATIONAL INDICES INCLUDING IN CURRENCY PAIRS-WE HAVE GIVEN DOWN TARGETS AND 100% ACHIEVED, WHILE 5% OR LESS IS THE RATIO OF NON-ACHIEVEMENT.

Biggest Mistake Done By Common Investor Is…
…They Don’t Buy When Stock Market Come Down At Value Buying Levels. 

100s of Intelligent investors have purchased our READY TO INVEST PORTFOLIOS of different duration namely MIDCAP PMS for 1 yr, EMERGING 7STAR PORTFOLIO for 2yr, and 4ACE PORTFOLIO for 5 yr and more horizon.

WHY REMAIN ON THE SIDELINES?...WHEN YOU CAN ENJOY THE PARTY LAVISHLY?

Just for Information:

When the markets were sliding on thursday last week...One of our MIDCAP PMS share was making its year high! Go to your Friday Pink paper and Try to find out OR Purchase our MIDCAP PORTFOLIO NOW!

Contact Details:

09377008708,

profit.megha@gmail.com.

 

WORLD ECONOMY:

US Federal Bank chairman announced 0.75% rise in interest rates.

Well, this was seemingly seemed to be An Event for global economy and the USA, but the capital markets hardly behaved or responded. May be they were keeping their attention on what they believe to be much important issues like the Euro-Dollar situation on what happens with the Greece bail-out development, while cats are readying or say so, to come out or bag while it is awaited when some 4 to 5 odd countries declare themselves Greece, most from the EU pack.

According to Theory of discounting, when you believe or feel that markets are not responding as it should be to certain phenomena/news/event, then deem that it has already responded to that before the official or public issue of the same or otherwise it is going to yet respond to it. In simple language either the markets have already discounted the information or is going to do so in near future. And you are merely making the mistake of WHEN WILL IT or rather WHEN SHOULD IT. And not/beware many times for reporting industry News Doesnt make the Market BUT the Markets make the news! For example after the Budget market doesnt went down for 3 days or say 5 days, and next week the declines starts. Then from the next week all the budget comments and analysis turns unfavourable and the news industry will tell you how the budget was responsible for down market.

Anyways, we were talking about the rate hike in USA for the first time after June2006. The Emerging Economies mainly China and India had already started doing that. So is Mr. Bernanke following the developing countries. It could be a subject of study if the USA is looking at emerging economies policies to set its economy right. In this world of international finance, this seems more of a tactic and game for capital flows, forex markets and currency catch-up catch-ins, than underlied with the Real economy.

The rate hike could mean some or all of the following:

1. The US economy is in recovery shape. (note, not the world economy. I dont understand why will they care about global economy? or if someone thinks so, its a misbelief)

2. The financial system there does not need liquidity support anymore, or say need of such required support is reducing.

3. Fear of rising inflationary pressure and expectation is surfaced. (this could mean a good deal for commodities prices, if the prices of commodities are able to build a strong base around the levels where they are trading now then they may have a great run for next some years, even following subsequent rate hikes to say may be up to 3pc.

4. Economy growth rate and estimates on rise.

Send comments

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT FOR TRADERS AND INVESTORS

FUNDAMENTAL STOCK PICK:

RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTURE LTD.

CMP 1062, TARGETS 1500/2000.

The company belongs to ADAG (Anil Dhirubai Ambani Group) having presence in power and infrastructure sectors.

Reliance Infrastructure is not only India’s largest private sector company in power but also the largest private sector company in many other infrastructure sectors of India.
In the power space it is involved in generation, transmission, distribution and trading of electricity and constructing power plants.
In the infrastructure space the company is focused on roads, Urban infrastructure which includes MRTS, Sea link and Airports, Specialty Real Estate which includes business districts, trade towers, convention centre and SEZ which includes IT & ITES SEZ and non IT SEZ as well as free trade zones.

The engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) division has an order book of Rs 21,500 crore.

In the Urban Infrastructure business, it is the country’s first and only private sector builder and operator for Metro Systems. It is already into construction of the first line of Mumbai’s Metro system stretching 12 kms from Versova to Ghatkopar. Besides it has also won the Delhi Metro’s airport express link stretching a length of 22.5 kms. The total investment for these two projects is Rs 4900 crore.

In specialty real estate business, it is the country’s first and only private sector builder to build India’s first 100 storeyed building, a trade tower and business district in 80 acres of land in Hyderabad. The total investment for this project is Rs 6,500 crores.

In Special Economic Zones (SEZs), it is developing over 180 mn sq ft of SEZ for IT/ITES, retail hospitality in Mumbai and Noida with an investment worth Rs 31,000 crore.

The infrastructure assets include six roads and two metro rail projects. The company has a healthy balance sheet, with over Rs 10,000 crore of cash and cash equivalent.

The company has plans to a JV venture for the electrical equipment manufacturing business.
In collaboration with Shanghai Electric, the company is examining the feasibility of setting up equipment manufacturing facilities for power generation, to cater to the domestic sector and to markets in the Middle East, Africa and South East Asia. The progress on the project will purely be on the basis of cost benefit analysis.

Hold your breath we have something more about this company…

This company holds 45% in reliance power which will generate 34000 mega watt powers in the next 7 to 8 years.

If we calculate the valuation @141 of reliance power then stake value per share of reliance infra will go to 1500.

Book value 525 per share (only of reliance infra and not unlisted company).

Total valuation= Reliance Power valuation + book value

                        =1500+525.

Total value=2025.

Now at price of 1062 what you are paying?

What is the value of infrastructure business?

What is the value of 981 mg power capacity?

Looking at above factors and analysis our price projection are 1500 and 2000.

MUTUAL FUND PICK:

HDFC PRUDENCE FUND

Recommendation: BUY.

Rational:

Excellent track record of equity investments.

Excellent track record of high grade debt investments.

Consistence dividends pay out.

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK:

SUPPORT AT 4700/4600/4550.

RESISTANCE AT 4907/4970/5050.

Trend reversal or correction? a million dollar question.

11% correction so far from 5300 to 4700.

Let’s paint the scenario to give answer of above question a trend reversal or correction by two way (1) technical analysis arguments (2) fundamental analysis arguments.

(1)  TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ARGUMENTS

This time lest see some more theory based analysis.

(1)  FALLING WEDGE

If you look at the chart one we have drawn two trend line on lower top lower bottom formation this is called falling wedge as per general rule falling wedge gives trend reversal from falling market to rising market.

If this happen then we may see faster recovery from current levels.

(2)  FIBONACCI-RETRACEMENT

Look at the chart no two we have drawn the Fibonacci retracement from 7697 to 17658.

The value of 23.6% retracement comes at 15400 .if we manage to hold this levels and market get recovery then we may consider this support has been taken by index.

It is not necessary to touch the support levels.

(3) 233 DMA

Look at the chart no. 3.

200 dma is widely used by all over world.

But at this crucial time we have used 233 dma ,if we calculate the value of 233 dma then it is 15380.

If market continues to trade well below 233 dma for 2-3 week then main trend can be in danger.

But in our case if we manage to hold this level then it will create heavy buying from the traders who follow technical analysis.

(4) DOW THEORY

Look at the chart no. 4.

As per dow theory index need to move in higher top higher bottom formation.

Index has already made higher top at 17500 now we need to substation above higher bottom which is placed at 15300.

If we manage to hold this support and cross the higher top of 17500 then we will consider this as normal pull back from 17500 levels and main trend of higher top higher bottom is intact.

(5) CANDLE THEORY

Look at the chart No. 5.

Look at the chart no 5, on quarterly chart index has make “HANGING MAN” formation.

As per hanging man formation if next candle close below the low of hanging man on quarterly basis then bears can take control of market.

On the other side if next candle close above the high of hanging man which is 17500 then bulls will take control of the market.

(2)  FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS ARGUMENTS

In India we have good corporate earning along with good GDP numbers unlike most countries last year.

India has political stability and growth visibility, this thing likely to continue to be one of the favored markets.

 Indian economy is domestic consumption story rather then export oriented so we will have our own growth story on the long run.

We believe that gold price are at higher levels and may not substation at this levels for now as dollar index has start recovering and will continue to recovery till 81 which will bring more correction in gold market .

We believe that falling gold price is good news for emerging market like India and china.

Hedge fund money will find another asset class (emerging markets) to park their money to earn good return.

If we remember in 2008 hedge fund have taken crude oil to $ 147 and then it fell to $32 and this money enter in to gold-due to sub-prime crisis and falling dollar index against major currencies.

Always remember money moves from one asset class to another asset class.

Dollar index to strengthen further and gold price will correct further and this will force hedge fund managers to exit from gold and find new asset class (emerging markets) to invest their money.

At this levels India and china offers good domestic consumption story with young generation will attract hedge fund money.

WHY STRONG DOLLAR AND WEAK GOLD ?

(1)  DOLLAR INDEX

Look at the weekly chart we have put RSI and MACD-both are positive.

Along with this we have put caltner channel and this is trying to cross this channel, as per rule when index close above the upper channel, index comes in the hand of powerful bulls.

Which looks positive and dollar index can move from current price of 80.36 to 81.25/82.96/85.

Strengthen in dollar will bring correction in gold price.

(2)  COMEX GOLD

Look at the daily chart of comex chart; it has formed the “head and shoulder” pattern.

Closing below the neckline of 1060 will trigger sell of by hedge fund and in panic it will slide to 1020/990 and even to 975 levels.

So strengthen in dollar index against major correction will trigger sell of in gold which can trigger inflow in Indian and Chinas market.

In short run market may move according to technical levels but in the long run it move along with economy and corporate earning.

Investments guru of world BENJAMIN GRAHAM says in short run stock market is voting machine and in the long run it is weighing machine.

We believe that there are ample opportunities available which can yield higher returns.

These have to un covered through research and meticulous stock selection.

In such scenario active portfolio management is likely to outperform passive strategies.

In India we will have good growth under insurance sector (particular ULIP) which will pump long term money in to Indian market.

Along with insurance sector online mutual fund will also help to tap the rural and urban money vary fast in long run.

Biggest Mistake Done By Common Investor Is,

They Don’t Buy When Stock Market Come Down At Value Buying Levels. 

If you want to manage your portfolio then you can subscribe in our portfolio management service.

You can also manage your hard earn money with our mutual fund portfolio management service.

We suggest investor our MID CAP PMS 1 AND 2 SERIES who has investment horizon of 1-2 years.

We suggest investor our 4ACE PMS who has investment horizon of 5 years or more.

CONCLUSION

So over all both on technical and fundamental arguments we believe this is not trend reversal and just a correction and trader and investor should find out value buying in market.

3 Essential MUST HAVE Strategies for Investors

3 Essential MUST HAVE Strategies for Investors:

1. Entering strategy

2. Exiting strategy

3. Re-entering strategy

1. ENTERING STRATEGY

It about buying

It about making portfolio

Right kind of diversification

Choosing right sectors. avoidng wrong sectors for e.g. fmcg and pharma and not telecom.

Avoiding all-time unfavorable sectors such as pulp and paper, plantations etc.

Use of technical analysis if/while investing in a bull market.

A review of situation and impact of other markets, for e.g. bond market, commodities market etc.

-why to invest?

Target/goal of investing, gains, speculative gains, dividend.

Deciding whether Economic recovery in sight or more pain for capital markets?

Comparison with other asset classes

Are valuations cheap or there is bubble element.

-Where to invest?

Sectors to pick and sectors to drop

Intra sector and stock selection i.es to chose between an l and t and bhel.

-how to invest?

Allocation of capital amongst stocks, sectors, intrasector and other classification.

2. EXITING STRATEGY

When to book profits.

Of What use the paper profits are?

When markets are fundamentally over priced and technically also.

The best way is to look for macro factors for overheating signals.

Also look for behavioral indicators such as excessive euphoria such as p/e ratios soaring to 50-100 and even more. And floods of IPOs over subscribing by several times with no justification for such a valuation of its business.

How much return should be a threshold for booking profit-50% or less  or more? How much for individual stock and how much for the combined portfolio?

Oh oh …you may miss 20-30 pc market rise, but if you know the top, please let us know too.!

-

Your targeted return has arrived or not.

Better opportunity in other sectors/stocks/asset class or shifting to debt or bank fd.

Valuations entering into bubble zone.

Strategy to exit NEAR top (and not AT top, which is not possible for all)

Making sure of your bull market PROFITS DOESNT remain ONLY ON PAPERS. (which happens with more than 70 percent of retail investors.)

3. REENTERING STRATEGY

When will you reenter into stocks?

May be you just wait and watch with cash during the bear market or you may invest into commodities or other asset class during this period.

Time for value buying.

Buying stocks at real real throw away prices in a completely distressed and panic driven markets. Having courage, confidence, vision and insight to do so.

The new economic policies, new themes of investing.

Rise of some sectors while fall of few others.

Reentering in wrong sector may give bitter experience at the start such as investing in telecom in this new bull market began in 2009.

Invest more and more when markets have corrected beyond 40 percent of its previous bull market high.

-

Market trading at or below fair valuations like average p/e, historic p/e, historic low earnings, etc.

Worst and pain coming to be over

Valuations becoming attractive

Your targeted downside in prices and valuations achieved.

Readiness to bear notional loss up to 20 percent and readiness to average at further declines.

Strategies of entering NEAR Bottom (and not bottom)

Readiness to take contrarian call.

Readiness to go against the crowd.

Close observation of macro economic cariables, monetary policy hanges, and your targeted companies for investment.

Remaining ready with a list of your targeted companies and their prices at which you will buy,

Making sure we may be early but not late in the bull party.

3 STRATEGIES APPLIED TO AN INDIVIDUAL’S INVESTMENTS:

Portfolio building strategy.

Portfolio monitoring strategy.

Diversification strategy. Within asset class i.e. equity.

Asset allocation strategy. Between asset classes.

Portfolio shuffling strategies.

COMEX GOLD HEAD SHOULDER PATTERN OF US $85? BELOW 1060 FREE FALL?

ABOVE CHART IS COMEX GOLD.


watch carefully it has formed head and shoulder pattern
height of head to neckline is 85/86 point(1161-1075)
now if break and close below 1060 with volume it will slide to 1020/990 and even to 975 levels!


IS THIS IS FIRST SIGN OF BIG HEDGE FUND IS PLANING TO LIQUIDATE (sell) ?

...and you thought LOMG-TERM INVESTMENT was always right:

And You Thought LONG-TERM Investment Was Always Right

3 STRATEGIES- THAT INVESTORS MUST HAVE

THREE STRATEGIES THAT INVESTORS MUST HAVE:
The Most Rewarding Things Are Many Times The Most Simple Ideas! 

Below are the 3 Strategies:
1. Entering Strategy.
2. Exit Strategy.
3. ? Send us email what could be the 3rd one @ profit.megha@gmail.com. or calll/sms on 09377008708 and win rewards.

SENSEX NEAR 200 DAM,HIGHER BOTTOM AND FALLING WEDGE WILL TURN MARKET UP?

WILL FALLING WEDGE ON DAILY CHART HELP TO RECOVER MARKET WITH 200 DAM AD HIGHER BOTTOM SUPPORT?


WEATHER IT HAPPENS OR NOT BUT FUNDAMENTAL SUGGESTS THAT THE MARKET OFFERS GOOD VALUE BUYING OPPORTUNITIES.


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BE READY TO SEE ANOTHER EXPLOSIVE MOVE IN DOLLAR INDEX

 

LAST CLOSE @ 80.36 NOW WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THIS LEVEL?

JUST SEE THE WEEKLY CHART ABOVE WITH KELTNER CHANNEL WHICH IS GIVING BULLISH SIGNAL WITH HELP OF RSI(63) AND MACD BOTH ARE POSITIVE

OUR TARGET IS 81.25/82.96/85

IF DOLLAR APPRECIATE THEN FREE FALL IN GOLD WILL BE SEEN

Please Click on the below Link WHAT WE SAID WHEN the dollar index WAS AT 75.77:

http://www.meghainvestments.com/2009/12/us-dollar-read-to-fire-target-81-cmp.html

WEEKLY REPORT FOR TRADERS AND INVESTORS

FUNDAMENTAL STOCK PICK

ESS DEE ALUMINIUM

CMP 368 TARGETS 600

Ess Dee Aluminium  has recently acquired 90% stake in India Foils Limited  from Madras Aluminium Ltd  a Vedanta Group Company. It infused Rs 1.2 bn into IFL and would merger it during the current fiscal. It has plans to revive IFL, currently under BIFR through a Rehabilitation Scheme. co along with MALCO have infused Rs 2.61 bn in IFL in the form of equity and preference shares to repay all outstanding debt IFL has with various lenders, thus making it totally debt free. IFL is a frontrunner for the distinction of being one of the earliest manufacturers of aluminium foil in Asia.

When fully integrated, the IFL-EDAL combine will have a capacity of 36,000 tonnes, twice the level of ESS DEE”s present capacity, making it the largest pharmaceutical foil manufacturing company.

ESS DEE would also get access to IFL's existing clients and higher international presence (IFL exports to over 35 countries globally). With the help of new capacities under its belt, the company can look at launching a basket of new products to meet the growing demand for packaging.

Strong growth witnessed in Indian pharma, FMCG, food and retail sectors have led to robust demand for packaging. On account of better quality of aluminium packaging as compared to the traditional materials, companies are switching to aluminium packaging. This has benefited ESS DEE which is a leading player in this segment.

As per estimates, the global pharmaceutical packaging demand will increase at 6% annually to over US$ 34 bn in 2011.

As per Mckinsey, Indian pharma is set to grow from US$ 7.6 bn in 2007 to US$ 20 bn by 2015 (CAGR of 12%), thus resulting in a huge demand for packaging. Further, the shift of US pharma packaging from glass and plastic containers to unitised packs by 2012 would also lead to huge demand

 in order to de risk its dependence from the pharma sector, which currently accounts for 85% of the revenues, has entered into FMCG packaging in the last couple of years. The company aims to change the ratio to 50:50 going forward. It has already made a mark in the field of speciality laminates for chewing gum wrap, confectionary, frozen desserts and FMCG items like ‘Fevikwick’ for Pidilite. As per crisil fmcg Valued at Rs 855 bn in 2008,   is expected to touch Rs 1,400 bn by 2015

 looking at the Indian along with global pharma(particular USA) and fmcg growth in India stock is trading at cheap valuation and one can take in their portfolio.

MUTUAL FUND PICK

BIRLA SUNLIFE MONTHLY INCOME PLAN-BUY

This fund has delivered good return by managing good balance of high grade bonds and government securities and equity portfolio.

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK

SUPPORT AT 4600/4500/4450

RESISTANCE AT 4770/4970/5050

Trend reversal or correction a million dollar question

11% correction so far from 5300 to 4700

Let’s paint the scenario to give answer of above question a trend reversal or correction by two way (1) technical analysis arguments (2) fundamental analysis arguments.

(1)  TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ARGUMENTS

All over global stock market and commodities are correcting with only appreciating is dollar index.

Still we (India) are trading above the 200 DMA and last higher bottom which are good.

As long as our  market are trading above 200 DMA and last higher bottom which are placed at 15300 and 4500 levels it is bullish and if Indian market along with global market stop correcting and start recovering then Indian market will definitely outperform the global stock market because our market charts have not much damage compare to others.

Strong support at 15300 and 4500 levels to watch out.

If global markets continue to correct then our market may breach support levels for temporary.

At this juncture we suggest two sectors and two stocks which can give you good return as per time series technical analysis.

Last years top performer was auto and banking sector

Last years top underperformer was telecom and fmcg

As per time series the rule is avoid last years top performer and buy last years top losers.

So we will avoid auto and banking shares and will add two stocks from telecom and fmcg.

Our two picks are

Bharti airtel from telecom sector.

Hindustan unilever from fmcg sector.

(2)  FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS ARGUMENTS

In India we have good corporate earning along with good GDP numbers unlike most countries last year.

India has political stability and growth visibility, this thing likely to continue to be one of the favored markets.

 Indian economy is domestic consumption story rather then export oriented so we will have our own growth story on the long run.

We believe that gold price are at higher levels and may not substation at this levels for now as dollar index has start recovering and will continue to recovery till 81 which will bring more correction in gold market .

We believe that falling gold price is good news for emerging market like India and china.

Hedge fund money will find another asset class(emerging markets) to park their money to earn good return.

If we remember in 2008 hedge fund have taken crude oil to $ 147 and then it fell to $32 and this money enter in to gold-due to sub-prime crisis and falling dollar index against major currencies.

Always remember money moves from one asset class to another asset class.

Dollar index to strengthen further and gold price will correct further and this will force hedge fund managers to exit from gold and find new asset class(emerging markets) to invest their money.

At this levels India and china offers good domestic consumption story with young generation will attract hedge fund money.

In short run market may move according to technical levels but in the long run it move along with economy and corporate earning.

Investments guru of world BENJAMIN GRAHAM says in short run stock market is voting machine and in the long run it is weighing machine.

We believe that there are ample opportunities available which can yield higher returns.

These have to un covered through research and meticulous stock selection.

In such scenario active portfolio management is likely to outperform passive strategies.

In India we will have good growth under insurance sector (particular ULIP) which will pump long term money in to Indian market.

Along with insurance sector online mutual fund will also help to tap the rural and urban money vary fast in long run.

Biggest Mistake Done By Common Investor Is

They Dont Buy When Stock Market Come Down At Value Buying Levels. 

We suggest investor our MID CAP PMS 1 AND 2 SERIES who has investment horizon of 1-2 years.

We suggest investor our 4ACE PMS who has investment horizon of 5 years or more.

CONCLUSION

So over all both on technical and fundamental arguments we believe this is not trend reversal and just a correction and trader and investor should find out value buying in market.

KEY NEWS TO WATCH OUT

8^th February Centre of Statistical Organization (CSO) will release advance estimates of GDP growth for 2009-10.

11^th February wholesale price indices (inflation) for month of January 2010

12^th February government will announce the industrial output data for the month of December 2009.