Shalibhadra Finance Ltd.-This counter could double from current 25 levels

Remember in gokul refoils i was barking to buy from 61 levels and my target  was 72/74 what happen you knows now just to day forget everything and spend 5 minutes to read the story i expect stock will double from current levels.






Shalibhadra Finance Ltd.
BSE code -511754

Change in Shareholding pattern
September 2009		December 2009
Amidhara agencies	4.98%	Amidhara agencies	4.98%
Amrut credit	2.04%	Amrut credit	2.04%
Minal agencies	3.11%	Minal agencies	3.11%
		New Shareholders
		Choudhry global	3.97
		Upsurge ind	1.91
		Reeta	1.64
		Thacker jawahar	1.10

Just see the difference. The persons who  were shareholders in september 2009 were also  in December 2009 but 4 new shareholders also bought hefty 8.62% in company. Why?


My chart indicates 100% something big news will come out either bonus or take over news.

From current levels of 25 i expect stock will double and will hit 50/55 levels.
Just check the chart below:
The stock has formed double top and now correction will create handle and will complete cup and handle formation -don't buy if you don't have patience.

                        

Words of Value Investing Wisdom: download book

Overconfidence

This word is repeatedly used. And everyone seems to know it's bad. And that 'It has disadvantages to be overconfident'. But how many of them really doesn't fall in this very mistake? Few.
Overconfidence in markets can wipe you out or close the doors of opportunity for you forever. Confidence is Great. Overconfidence is Worst. One learned man even said to the extent that overconfidence is anonyme to confidence rather than non-confidence. So how to make out overconfidence from confidence? Is there a think difference line or a huge mental exercise that it takes? Some of the signs of overconfidence can be very easy to identify.
Many times holding into losing positions or adding to them is a sure sign of overconfidence rather than heuristic described as loss-aversion in behavioural finance.
When a trader makes some money by fluke and start believing he can and profit without any trading system, charts, risk management etc. then he's surely an overconfident.
One thing is clear and holy-truth that Overconfidence is a Guaranteed path to oncoming disaster.
Ultimately overconfidence results in loses and then frustration, then in blaming other and markets for it.

FMCG bets

Godrej Consumer Products Ltd.
This Godrej group company is in news for on a shopping spree while buying foreign fmcg businesses.
The stocks seems to have gotten head and shoulder breakout.
A traders SL should be 255, while going long for a TGT of upto 335.


Hindustan Unilever Ltd.

This FMCG Major counter is under pressure. Don't know why? It did made a high around 300 price mark. Now also trading at attractive valuation for Investors.
Anyway, Traders Go Long with SL of 218 and a TGT of 240-297 with patience.
Inverted H&S Breakout to help.

Sugar complete first minor impulse down wave

Dow Jones -UBS Sugar Index:  First minor impulse down wave seems complete. Prices break trend channel resistances. We could see a corrective structure up now till key resistances at 149/156/189 levels from current 137 levels.


i expect all round recovery in sugar futures across the world market and also see indian sugar stock to blast.
from 145 levels i am telling my clients to buy bajaj hind from last one month with stop loss of 132 and see it has not broken my target is 200.

Yuan Revaluation: When, How, How much

The won rose five times as fast as China’s currency in the 12 months after officials in Beijing last relaxed the foreign- exchange regime in July 2005, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Singapore’s dollar climbed three times as much, the rupiah five times and Malaysia’s ringgit twice as fast.

Chinese government has kept the yuan at 6.83 per dollar for the past 21 months to shield exporters from the global recession and a slump in world trade. The country allowed the yuan to appreciate 21 percent in the three years before that.

It gained 1.4 percent versus the dollar in the year following the July 2005 revaluation. By comparison, Singapore’s dollar surged 4.3 percent, the rupiah 7 percent, the won 7.4 percent and Malaysia’s ringgit 3.3 percent, Bloomberg data show.

Possibility that the trading band may be widened to between 0.75 percent and 3 percent either side of the central bank’s daily reference rate.

The yuan was revalued by 2.1 percent on July 21, 2005, after China ended the decade-long peg to the dollar and introduced a “managed float” against a basket of currencies.

Foreign-exchange reserves rose to $2.45 trillion in March, the world’s largest holdings, as the central bank sold its own currency to maintain an almost two-year-old peg. China may also want to get rid of this ever increasing dollar hoard in terms of foreign exchange reserves due to its almost two year old-peg.

Yuan’s appreciation will reduce its soaring import bill.

The largest and first trade deficit in last six years which was whopping USD 7.24 billion. The last trade deficit came in April 2004 which was 2.26 billion. According to Officials trade with Taiwal, Korea and Japan prompted this deficit while for EU and USA the balance of payments remain surplus. It is expected that if in very near future China is going to appreciate that it would not do gradually in phase but at one-off manner.  

The Chinese Premier clearly stated that they would nor act on any external pressure for its forex policy.

All IN ALL THE EYES SEEMS TO BE ARE NOW MORE ON CHINESE FOREX MOVE RATHER THAN GREECE DEVELOPMENT. 

Update on Greece Crisis

           The Greece Debt problem has a bit of breather for now at least if not for all. On April 11 the European governments offered debt-plagued Greece a rescue package worth as much as 45 billion euros ($61 billion) at below-market interest rates in a bid to stem its fiscal crisis and restore confidence in the euro. The borrowing costs in Greek surged to 11-year high recently. The package includes 30 billion euros in three-year loans in 2010 at around 5 percent. Another 15 billion euros would come from the IMF.

Euro region officials have spent the past two months debating whether to maneuver around the rules of the Maastricht Treaty, which left the bloc without a common finance ministry to match its shared central bank. The treaty also contains a “no bailout clause,” making it harder for governments to agree on fiscal transfers for euro members facing fiscal crises.

The 16-nation currency euro declined 5 percent this year against major currency dollar. This was mainly due to the largest ever budget deficit of the EU till date. The debt prices (bond) of Greece also declined resulting into yields shooting to 11 year high to 7.51 percent last week.

Investor confidence in Greece will be tested today when it offers a combined 1.2 billion euros of 26- and 52-week bills. So far Greece, whose deficit was 12.9 percent of gross domestic product last year, says it won’t need to trigger the package.

Experts say others of the PIGS i.e. Portugal, Italy, Spain are less serious than Greece. Although the sentimental effect could be exaggerative.

France's CAC-40 Index: Down move is likely to start

 Down move is likely to start----

Below 3900 bearish confirmation.

Correction is part of right shoulder,

Correction will be limited to 3550 levels...

Once the formation complete and index cross 4100 my target will be 4600 + levels.

8 Year Cycle and Dow Theory

      Many times you have heard about long term story of Indian economy and growth and your broker, financial planner or tax advisor says invest for long term in Indian stock market but market moves in un realistic manner and discount everything vary early and responds in such a manner that small or retail investor always trap like in 1992 bubble of harshad Mehta then in 2000 ketan parekh and IT bubble and then in 2008 US sub prime problem.

     As a experience investor we have try to learn from long term chart of the main index and try to give view.

Some observations are as below,

(1)   sensex has 8 year cycle

At every 8 years sensex make top and then falls.

Like from 1984 to 1992

1992 to 2000

2000 to 2008

(2)   market correct at least 60% from the 8 year cycle top

1992 crash 4546 to 1980=56% down from top

2000 crash 6150 to 2594=57% down from top

2008 crash 21206 to 7697=63% down from top

(3)   From 1984 to 2008 of 24 year market moves in higher top-higher bottom formation.

1992 top was 4546 and correct to 1980

2000 top was higher then of 1992 which was 6150 and correct up to 2594 which was higher bottom then of 1992 correction of 1980

2008 top was higher of 2000 which was 21206 and correct up to 7697 which was higher bottom then of 2000 correction of 2594

Now see in every 8 year cycle market turns down with at leas 60% down from high and do not break last higher bottom and creates higher top.

Now if any one who believe in Indian growth story then on Dow Theory  and cycle theory consider two things

(1)   Indian market can hit major top in

2015/2016

2024/2025

(2)   market will correct at least 60% from their top

In technical analysis stop loss is must whether you are trader or long term investor.

In Dow Theory bull market higher bottom becomes your stop loss

Let us explain how

If you have invested from 1984 then market correct from 4546 to 1980

Then in 2000 market correct from 6150 to 2594

At this level those who have invested must keep stop loss of last higher bottom which was at that time 1980 and it was not broken and those who remain invested has get good return.

Then in 2008 market correct from 21206 to 7697

At this level those who have invested must keep stop loss of last higher bottom which was at that time 2594 and it was not broken and those who remain invested has get good return

Now if any one who wants to play India growth story then they needs to keep stop loss of 7697 which is last higher bottom

Now one thing is clear before next bubble in 2015/2016 comes, every investor who are invested in market through mutual funds,insurance plan or directly for very very long time invest your money with stop loss of 7697 if this break then Indian market will enter in to very long term bear phase.

We will update more analysis based on cycle theory and Dow theory as and when needed.

Greece Bail-Out

                      European governments has offered debt- plagued Greece a rescue package worth as much as 45 billion euros ($61 billion) at below-market interest rates in a bid to stem its fiscal crisis and restore confidence in the euro. Forced into action by a surge in Greek borrowing costs to an 11-year high, euro-region finance ministers said yesterday they would offer as much as 30 billion euros in three-year loans in 2010 at around 5 percent. That’s less than the current three- year Greek bond yield of 6.98 percent. Another 15 billion euros would come from the International Monetary Fund.

Comex Gold To Hit All Time High ?

From every  time we have given my transparent  view on global market,commodities,currency.


Many time we have written that comex gold.
3 CONSTITUTIVE + WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW $1040 WILL START WAVE  5 
AS PER WAVE COUNT TARGET WILL BE BETWEEN $900 TO $850.

...Just see gold never close 3 consecutive days or weekly below 1040,made low of 1085 and hit last lower top of $1161...

...click on the link what we have written about gold 
http://www.meghainvestments.com/2010/02/gold-complete-4-wavebelow-1040-will.html 

now open your eyes and read carefully bears only control below $1040 and that never happen.

Now what to expect from this levels?

3 CONSTITUTIVE + WEEKLY CLOSE above 1161 will confirm the inverted head and shoulder pattern and my target will be 1247,
for clear chart click on the image.

 

Repeatatio of no-resulting action is as good as repeatition of mistake

                     Have you ever found yourself doing repeatation of things?. Probably many times. Even worst when the similar action doesn't result into different or your desired outcome. The very thing happens in trading. You are behaving the sameway. You are using and implementing the same system of trading. Trying to get signals for entry, managing position and making an exit. Then again entry signal. But you are not satisfied. You are not making any money. Or even worse you are paying high tuition fee. This is the point when you emotion of the ego-side will argue that "all is right with me, I am following a system, a trading plan. I am not doing things haphazardly.'. 

                     But wait. It's not about doing things right, but doing the right thing!. Your system just isn't working. Many traders have a tendency to fall in trap that they have a system and thats it. They think they are now ahead of 50 per cent of the competition who do not use any system, trading plan, money management plan and so on. They are right but not completely. An the proof is the fact they are not making money when there is enough volatility in the markets. Now here they need to change and shift to that Doing The Right Thing rather than the other way. They need to pay attention to this that Aren't they trying to expect different results although doing the same thing? Then it can not happen. Mind here: This doesn't mean that you should continue changing your system or trading plan. No. Just remain aware that the psychology of Doing thing right doesn't ride you. Sufficient observation time has you have let to understand that some thing is not working than bring change. 

Remember always: "The definition of insanity by Albert Einstein- Repeating same thing and expecting different results every time"

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT FOR TRADERS AND INVESTORS

In this kind of market many small investor often gets trapped and buys shares which are in fancy like which we have seen in 2008 market crash. If you have missed to read the last week report then let me give you all three stock which we have written to avoid are Think Soft, James Hotels, Jay Bbharat Textile and Real Estate.

Again in this week I am writing about such two stocks from investors should stay away.

Avoid below stocks,

(1)      Shree global trade fin:

Company is engage in trading of hot rolled coils, cold rolled steel sheets, hot rolled plate, ms channels, and ms beams.

Out of 67 trading session stock was locked In upper circuits in 53 sessions, despite of the manic move stock continue traded in B category instead of shifting in trade to trade segments.

Let’s checkout the fundamentals of the company.

Stock price is trading with whopping P/E multiple of 1800 and book value of just 10.59 per share.

Investors should be aware of such shares.

(2)  Anand Credits:

Under listing agreements clause 34 , the company was suspended from trading due to non payments of annual listing fees from 10 September 2000.

Stock was re-listed on 27 January 2010 with price of 50 and this counter jumped to 65 to its all time high.

This Ahmedabad based company is engage in financial service

We suggest that investor beware of such shares.

SECTOR WATCH-(MID CAP IT INDUSTRY)

In the last weekly report I have given my bullish view on hotel sector and given buy on EIH.

On Thursday and Friday most of TV channel were discussing about bullish trend in hotel sector ahead.

Strong dollar and recovering banking, financial, service and insurance sector is helping to revive larger IT Company such as infosys, wipro, and tcs.

But in my view smaller IT company which are engaged in industrial salutations will do well selectively like engineering, because not only Indian industrial but also world over industrial is recovering.

STOCK PICK:

Geometric: 

Company is engaged in engineering salutations and products life cycle management business

This company is promoted by well know business house goderaj group and rakesh jujnjuwals and his wife holds nearly 10% in the company.

This company provides design salutations in India and across the world to automobile and industrial segments.

Last year company has acquired US based modern  engineering and revival in industrial will help to revive this company ,apart from this company has changed its hedging strategy against dollar and this will improve the next quarterly results of the company.

Technically this counter is much stronger compare to other mid size IT Company and will outperform.

Investor can buy on deep with stop loss of 41 and expect target of 120-125 based on Elliott wave count

FUNDAMENTAL VIEW ON NIFTY:

Currently nifty is trading above 22 P/E multiple.

In normal condition it trades between 22 to 23 multiple.

While in bubble situation this P/E multiple expand to 28 levels and historically in 1992, 2000 and in 2008 we have seen the same P/E multiple.

As per historic data India stock market enters in bubble zone at every 8 years so next bubble should be only in 2016.

If in this current year nifty and sensex cross 6500 and 21000 levels then we will create history by entering in to bubble zone in just 2 years of time frame.

Those who are value investor or value buyers the valuations are not cheap and margin of safety is also low. But those who follow the growth investing theory the valuation may be cheap.

Those who believe in value investing should book profit if market rise to 21000 from current 18000 levels.

Remember in 2007-2008 we were telling to exit from the market from 18000 levels and target given 11000 then what happen you all know.

TEHCNICAL VIEW OF SENSEX AND NIFTY:

From Elliott wave and Dow Theory if sensex closes 4 consecutive weeks above 17800 then in 3^rd wave will rise to 19300/19600 and then finally in 5^th wave 21000 levels.

On hourly charts as long as sensex and nifty manage to hold about 5200 and 17800 levels we may see more up side till 5500/5600 in nifty and 18200/18500 in sensex.

If US index S&P 500 gives weekly close above 1178 on Friday then wave count and Dow Theory will take to 1400 levels and strong support will be 1044 levels.

So, all eyes are on US market.

GOLD ANALYSIS:

Before 2 week ago I have given analysis of comex gold and told panic will come only if it gives 3 consecutive closes below $1090 and see it gives close only one day below $1090 and rebound to $1150 levels.

Now major resistance is $1166 on COMEX and on MCX 17100.

MOMENTUM CALLS

Market is at high speed and if you don’t wear helmet while you running bike at 100 speeds your life is at risk.

Hear we suggest you some trading calls but we also suggest you to buy April month put options to hedge you buying position because market is running on high speed and any single bed news will create vertical fall and you may loose significantly

Geomatric software

3^rd wave on hourly charts. Buy with stop loss of 65 and target 77.

IFCI

Some speculative position build up in this counter.  Buy with stop loss of 49. And target of 57.

Neyveli lignite

As per time series reversal will come. Bbuy with stop loss of 144 and targets of 159/162.

SREI infra

5^th wave above 82 on hourly charts. Buy with stop loss 74 and targets of 85/88.

Adani enterprise

3^rd wave on hourly charts. Buy with stop loss 467 and target of  530.

IMPORTANT NOTES

On 12 April industrial production data will be announced.

Next week China and Singapore to announce quarterly GDP numbers.

Metals index to relatively under-perform.


Quote of the Week:
For traders,
"A speculator must concern himself with making money out of the market and not with insisting that the tape agree with him."
-From book "Reminiscences of a stock operator".

Forex Terms

Appreciation is when a currency’s value grows stronger.

Ask Rate is the rate at which a trader can buy a currency that is for sale.

Base Currency is the currency in which other currencies are quoted in a pair. Usually the U.S. dollar is considered the ‘Base Currency’.

Bid/Ask Spread is the difference between the bid and offer price or buy and sell price.

Big Figure is a term used by dealer and/or brokers. It refers to the first few digits of an exchange rate.

Clearing is a term used to refer to a process of settling a trade.

Commission is the fee that is charged by a broker/dealer.

Confirmation is a document that states the terms of a transaction.

Contract is the standard unit of trading.

Cross Rate is the exchange rate between any two currencies that are not of the country in which the currency pair is quoted. For example, in the U.S., a GBP/JPY quote would be considered a Cross Rate. The same quote would not be a Cross Rate in either the U.K. or Japan.

Orient Paper and Industries Ltd.-Exit in Profit @ TGT of 60.

Just Click on the below Link where recently WE RECOMMENDED ORIENT PAPER:
http://www.meghainvestments.com/2010/04/orient-paper-5-th-wave-start.html

Become A Member. Call now on 09377008708.