Indian Stock Market Outlook as on 11/02/2012

VIEW CAUTIOUS FOR TRADERS: EXITING LONG POSITIONS ADVISABLE OR LONG NEXT MONTH 4800 PUT

MONTHLY PATTERN NOT IN FAVOUR OF BULLS.
MEDIUM TERM UPTREND STILL INTACT, HOWEVER NIFTY MUST NOT BREAK BELOW 5110 AND END CORRECTION BEFORE THE NEW EXPIRY.

                                 The NSE Nifty spot closed at 5333.55 up by 113 points and BSE Sensex closed at 17503 up by 2.09% on weekend. Metal stocks ended the week with notable losses despite turning in an impressive performance on Weekend. A weak trend in global metal prices due to demand concerns following a downward revision in Chinese growth target spooked metal stocks. Sterlite Industries, Jindal Steel, Hindalco and Tata Steel all ended the week with sharp losses. Reliance Industries, Bhel, Gail , Bharti Airtel, NTPC & Tata Power also closed on a weak note last week. Among the gainers in the Sensex, Tata Motors, Maruti Suzuki, Wipro, HDFC, ITC, ICICI Bankand Coal India gained modest ground in positive territory. Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) shares made an impressive debut on Weekend. The IPO from the company had received an overwhelming response, getting subscribed more than 54 times. On the NSE, the stock rose to Rs 1428.55 in early trades & despite losing some ground as the session progressed, closed at Rs 1294, up more than 25% from its issue price. In economic news, India's exports grew an annual 4.3% to $24.6 billion in February, while imports grew 20.6% to $39.8 billion. The trade deficit widened to $15.2 billion during the month from $14.8 billion in January. Total exports are seen in the range of $292 billion to $298 billion for the 2011/12 fiscal year that ends on March 31.

INTERNATIONAL DEPOSITORIES RATES:

ADR/GDR
	Latest (US$)	Price % chg	% Prem/Disc
Dr. Reddys	34.2	2.1	1.7
HDFC Bk	33.8	1.7	9.8
ICICI Bk	35.3	1.6	3.1
ITC	4.2	0.2	0.2
Infosys	57.7	1.2	0.6
Ranbaxy	8.5	2.6	2.6
Reliance	31.1	2.0	2.5
Wipro	10.9	2.5	24.6
SBI	86.2	2.0	1.1
Tata Motors	27.5	1.5	3.1
Sterlite	9.1	4.4	4.9
L&T	25.1	2.0	2.0

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITIES QUOTES:

Commodities		% change
	Last close	1 day	3 mth	YTD
Crude (US$/bbl)	106.8	0.2	7.4	8.1
Gold (US$/oz)	1,703	0.2	(0.5)	8.9
Copper (US$/mt)	8,331	0.5	8.4	9.8
Aluminium (US$/mt)	2,162	(0.1)	4.9	8.4
Zinc (US$/mt)	2,031	1.9	2.8	11.2

CURRENCY QUOTES:

Currency		% change
	Last close	1 day	3 mth	YTD
Rs/US$	50.29	(0.2)	2.8	5.5
Rs/EUR	66.02	(0.3)	4.8	4.1
US$/GBP	1.58	(0.0)	1.0	1.8
US$/EUR	1.33	(0.1)	(0.9)	2.4
Yen/US$	81.78	0.3	(5.1)	(6.0)

NIFTY SPOT:-

The NSE Nifty spot closed at 5333 with heavy volatility at weekend. This is the time to be cautious for medium term investment due to some outside factors like Indian budget, Greece 2nd bailout package from EU. This will be better idea whether investor exits from all position or long next month 4800 put. There are various resistances like 5364/5398/5432 with supports like 5288/5241/5205. Market would make high nearer to 5400 level if we consider morning star pattern at second last session. With the big events like budget and RBI announcement, non-seasoned traders and short-to-medium term investors are adviced to remain on sidelines. Even mkts may be looking bearish but shorting overnight for big profits is not advisable. 

CRISIL:-

From years, market was positive and negative but Crisil is steadily positive for investors. Whoever have invested in this scrip for long term, he had make good profits. Chart of this scrip shows one way movement with various patterns and crossovers & breakouts. There are various resistances like 947/952/961 with supports like 937/930/922.

HDFC:-

One of the volatile stock in finance sector, Housing Development closed at 681 with its normal volatility on weekend.  From last one year, this stock shows side way movement nearer to 650-700 level. For this week, this stock will perform as per some resistances like 686/693/707 with supports like 671/663/649. If we analyze the lower indicators like MACD and stochastic, both are indicating sell or exit from buy position signal for nearly 2 months.