NIFTY SPOT TECHNICAL CHART

(Click on the chart for bigger view)

Nifty spot closed at 4713 with heavy profit booking and all short term long positions winding up as short Christmas vacation is coming up. As indicated a chart of nifty daily from mid 2009, we can see volatility of nifty index. In 2011,

Excerpts of Letter of Warren Buffett to Shareholders, year 1978

Excerpts from Warren Buffett’s Letter to Shareholders for year 1978

....We make no attempt to predict how security markets  will behave; successfully forecasting short term stock price movements is something we think neither we nor anyone else can do.  In the longer run, however, we feel that many of our major

equity holdings are going to be worth considerably more money

than we paid…

…Slow capital turnover, coupled with low profit margins on sales, inevitably produces inadequate returns on capital

Excerpts of Letter of Warren Buffett to Shareholders, year 1977

Excerpts/Key Learnings from Warren Buffett’s Letter to Shareholders for year 1977:

The excerpts are taken from the letter and not changed with words or sentences. References are given as and wherever necessary.

…After all, even a totally dormant savings account will produce steadily rising interest earnings each year because of compounding.

     …Except for special cases (for example, companies with unusual debt-equity ratios or those with important assets carried at unrealistic balance sheet values), we believe a more appropriate measure of managerial economic performance to be return on equity capital.

     …The textile business again had a very poor year in 1977.  We have mistakenly predicted better results in each of the last two years.  This may say something about our forecasting abilities, the nature of the textile industry, or both.

Fake Exports Scam?: Black Money coming back to India by exports-over-invoicing with help of government

In a report dated 10 Oct 2011, Sanjeev Prasad, Sunita Baldawa and Amit Kumar of Kotak, unearthed the possible export-scam amounting to even more than combined 2G, mines and all other scams.

The report said that in between 2008-09 and 2010-11, exports to the Bahamas jumped to $2.2 billion from $2.2 million. Yet, India’s share in Bahamas’ imports, which totalled $2.8 billion in 2010, is a relatively minor 7.5 percent. Thus, this 1000 fold in 2 yrs is no-doubt an issue which demands criminal investigation.

According to UNCTAD —The global trade and investments monitoring agency of UN— says, the number in no way matches the data on the Bahamas’ global imports, which, was $2.8 billion in 2010. There are more reasons to smell scam in these figures. The 29-island Bahamas have an economy not larger than $8 billion and a population of only 3,50,000.

These and other skyrocketing increase in ‘copper articles’ exports points that some black money might have been repatriated back to the country via ‘over-invoiced’ exports (done by billing high fake amounts for overseas transactions with fake buyers or shell companies) given that international scrutiny is increasing over unaccounted funds in Swiss bank accounts and other financial centres.

It is clear that how India could continue achieving blistering rates of growth in exports (almost more than 50 percent each month) when the US and Europe, two top export destinations, are clearly in major financial trouble.

Indians’ per capita income rises 2.5 times in a decade

From year 2001-02’s Rs.18450, the per capita income of average investor risen to Rs.54000 in 2010-11. The per capital income calculated at current prices registered an annual average growth rate of about 12.80% during this time period.

NIFTY SPOT TREND LINE CHART

NIFTY SPOT INDEX: (click on the chart for larger view)

The NSE Nifty spot closed at 5050 up by 2.29% on weekend. Nifty spot

stood above 21 and 34 day EMA but didn't cross 100 and 200 day EMA which

doesn't show buying opportunity. Short term long position takers should be

cautious for next week, because of having some negative diversion in stochastic

on daily basis. There are various resistances like 5089/5129/5163 with supports

like 5005/4981/4939.

----04/12/2011

BSE Derivatives Segment records largest ever turnover: Sensex futures shine

It looks like the incentive scheme is ultimately working at least as of now. Last week on 3rd Novembar 2011, the derivatives segment of BSE recorded largest ever turnover of 759.24 crore (about 1520 crore both sides).

The sensex futures turnover was Rs.625 crore, highest ever since launch of the vastly tracked Indian index.

Total 128 members put trades in derivatives segment. It is noticeable that since last few days, the turnover of BSE derivatives segment has been rising 50-75 crores rupees everyday.

Whiile on the other side the derivatives market leader NSE is way too up. It records average of atleast 1.20 lakh crore volume daily.

USEFUL LINKS:
Sensex futures live quotes link-
http://www.bseindia.com/bseplus/StockReach/AdvanceStockReach.aspx?scripcode=1&app=0&id=998193 
BSE Derivatives market watch link- http://www.bseindia.com/deri/HotLinks/Derimarketwatch.aspx?L=2&id=hd0&Lid=0

Daily Market Wrap

On the last day of trading this week, the markets closed with moderate gains today and barring oil & gas, all sectoral indices closed positive. The CNX Midcap index was up 0.9% and the BSE Smallcap index gained 0.3%. The market breadth was positive with advances at 817 against declines of 606 on the NSE. Metals was top rising sector today. Other sectors with substantial gains included capital goods and banking and oil & gas was the only sector that closed negative. The Sensex closed at 17563, up 81 points from its previous close, and the Nifty shut shop at 5284, up 18 points. The CNX Midcap index closed with 1% gain while the BSE Smallcap index gained 0.4% in today's trade. The market breadth was positive with advances at 818 against declines of 612 on the NSE. The top Nifty gainers were Ambuja Cements, Hero MotoCorp, Hindalco and Cairn, havells, sun tv, gsk, voltas, shree cement, lanco infra while the biggest losers included Ranbaxy, Tata Power, Reliance Infra, jain irrigation, motherson sumi, crisil and Dr Reddy's. 

The market had a gap up opening on the back of positive cues from the US markets. The mood was somewhat relaxed as Greece dropped the idea of a referendum on bailout package and European Central Bank unexpectedly lowered interest rates to 0.25% at 1.25%. After touching the intraday high the market witnessed some profit booking which result in Sensex slipping down briefly into negative terrotory . Reliance witnessed cut of around 1% during the afternoon session even as few FMCG and auto stocks too slipped under pressure. Positive openings in European market enabled the market to bounce back from the lows and end the day on a positive note. Midcap and small cap stocks outperformed the front liners. 

Daily Market Wrap

Today markets witnessed a volatile day comprising movements of both up and downs where market risen into green then again falling back before ultimately giving close in the green. The BSE-30 Sensex index and NSE-50 Nifty index closed day green about 0.10% gain at 17484.93 and 5265.75 respectively, while the nifty future (largest trading instrument after nifty options) closed day with 0.56% at 5309.90 showing a huge premium of

44.15, indicating increased and sustained bullish undertone in the futures contract.

Nifty future was trading in tight range after it made fresh low of 5,221.15 around 1 pm in the noon. however then onwards nf traded about 5240-50 till ultimately started rising in the last 1 hour of the trade after 02.30 pm. 

Amongst the indices realty, power, oil and gas, and capital goods stock outperformed most other sectors. There was mixed trading in banking stocks. BSE Smallcap index closed flat while Midcap index closed with half percetage gain. The market breadth (advance-decline ratio) remained negative with 752 stocks declining against 653 stocks rising.  

Amongst the frontline gainerss Reliance infra, Acc, Dlf, Bhel, PFC, Sun tv, jsw steel, while indiabulls financial services, jp infra, crisil, and sail. HUL, Tata motors lost.

Renowned Economist Nauriel Roubini warns Lehman-type scenario out of European debt crisis

Eminent international economist NAURIEL ROUBINI who has so far been most accurate economic forecaster than most of others, has recently warned on 2008-Lehman-type credit crisis scenario and slowing-trend in growth of world’s major developed economies as well as China’s.

He also warned of Euro currency falling apart and Greece to be the first amongst those leaving eurozone monetary union.

On China, he said there is going to be hard-lending and following slower growth or no incremental growth which will have effect on world economy as china is now a growth engine for world in many ways.

Read the full article below,

KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK CHART

The state of the markets: Contemplating similarity and difference between 2008 and 2011 market corrections and the possible road ahead

The state of the markets: Contemplating similarity and difference between 2008 and 2011 market corrections and the possible road ahead.

After seeing sell off in the initlal 4 days of the current October derivatives expiry to low of 4741; nifty index has been steadily showing upward trend resulting in a high of 5402.75 on the second day (28th oct and start of nov expiry) of diwali muhurt trading day.

We had seen a sell off to 4720 level from above 5700 in at the end of the august derivatives expiry beginning from the end of july expiry (july was tight ranged and low volatile trading band month for the indice) following consistent correction in the august expiry as said.

If we go back even further and want to take a sneak of diwali to diwali map than we can see market making clear lower top lower bottom pattern (one of the few sure-shot highly reliable and predictive technical patterns) since last diwali which was on 5th of november 2010.
We can see in the chart no-1 that nifty made high of 6338.50 on 5 november that is the 2010 diwali day!

Head and shoulders pattern-

Brief Detail of our ADVISORY PRODUCTS FOR INVESTORS

DETAIL OF SERVICES FOR INVESTORS:

SR.	SERVICE	FEATURES & SPECIFICATIONS	FEE/CHARGES
1	ACTIVE STOCK PORTFOLIO ADVICE	-6 different stock portfolios mainly based on time-duration. -Advice of updating given actively. -See details.	Different for different duration (see table)
2.	STANDARD PORTFOLIO ADVICE	-Ready-to-invest, non-updated different stock portfolios. -See/Check out which standard portfolios are available. -Time-duration , return, theme etc different for different portfolios. -No updates given. One-time servicing only.	Rs.2500 per portfolio
3	STOCK SIP ADVICE	-1 fundamental stock reco. every month given with tgt, return and holding period.	Rs.6000 for 1 yr
4	PORTFOLIO SHUFFLING ADVICE	-advice on existing stock portfolio is given. -onetime upto 15 stocks -Continuous yrly upto 15+15 stocks	Rs.5000 for one-time PSS Rs.12,000 for Continuous PSS for 1 yr.
5	Annual paid membership	-Indian investors club service -multibagger stock reco. throughout the yr. -see details for frequency of stk recommendation and schedule of sending advice etc. Good for those who do not want/fit in any of the above 4 service.	Rs.7000 for 1 yr

Brief Detail of our ADVISORY PRODUCTS FOR TRADERS

           BRIEF DETAIL OF SERVICES FOR TRADERS: (Click on the links for more detail of products)

	SERVICE	FEATURES & SPECIFICATIONS	FEE/CHARGES
1	Intraday stock cash calls (hotcalls)	2 to 4 intraday calls daily. 3-6 btst calls in a week.	Rs.2500 monthly
2	Stock Future calls
	Intraday stock future calls	2-3 intraday calls daily. 4-8 btst/stbt calls in a week.	Rs.8000
	Stock future Assured Profit Scheme	Mainly positional but intraday also given.	Rs.10000 fee for Rs.50,000 profit.
	3. Stock future profit- sharing plan	On call and by sms service. Advance refundable fee of Rs.5000. Intraday, positional both type.	No fixed fee taken. Then 25% profit sharing/ performance based fee.
3	Reliance+Tata Calls	Intraday and btst calls from reliance and tata group stocks only in cash segment.	Rs.3500 monthly
4	Intraday Nifty Future Calls	Assured 500 points profit. Trade with given compulsory guidelines.	Rs.5000 monthly/for 500 net points
5	ASSURED SURESHOT STOCK CASH	Weekly 1 call & 10-20% profit in each call. Minimum 1 lakh value to be purchased. Assurety of profit of min Rs.25,000.	Rs.5000
6	Commodity futures trading advice-
	1. Regular monthly package fixed fee	·      All/any type of calls from any  commodity will be given . Daily 2-4 calls will be given by sms only	Rs.8000 monthly
	2.     Profit Sharing Plan	Profit sharing fee of 25% taken from profits.	Rs.5000 advance, then 25% profit-sharing fee.
	Assured Profit Scheme	Assurity of Profit of Rs.1,00,000 is given.	Rs.20,000 profit-based Expiry
7	Mixed/All-in-1 Pack	All Traders and investors based service for 1 month Excludes some products having one-time service delivery mainly in investors products basket	Rs.25,000 monthly

POSITIONAL STOCK CASH (DELIVERY BASED) AND INDEX FUTURES TRADING ADVICE:

FII CALLS ARE PROVIDED IN FOLLOWING 4 TYPES OF INSTRUMENTS:

TYPE OF FII CALL	Features and Specific Details
(1) FII STOCKS CALLS	Trading Calls from mainly A and B group will be advised. There will be approx. 1-3 calls during a week. Some positions shall be squared off with starting from 5% gain, while few position shall be held for higher gains. At any point of time, there will be maximum 4 positions held at a time. Usual holding period will range from  1 week to 3-4 weeks for some positions.
(1) FII NIFTY FUT CALLS	Trading Calls from NIFTY Futures and Options will be advised. There will be approx. 2-4 calls during a week. Minimum gap of 50 points adhered. Mainly overnight nature position but squared-off intraday if required as per situation.  Usual holding period will range from  1 week to 3-4 weeks for some positions.
(2) FII BANK NIFTY FUT CALLS	Trading Calls from BANK NIFTY Futures and Options will be advised. There will be approx. 2-4 calls during a week. Minimum gap of 100 points adhered Usual holding period will range from  1 week to 3-4 weeks for some positions.
(3) FII CNX IT FUT CALLS	Trading Calls from CNX IT Futures and Options will be advised. There will be approx. 2-4 calls during a week. Minimum gap of 50 points adhered Usual holding period will range from  1 week to 3-4 weeks for some positions.

PACKAGES AND FEE STRUCTURE:

PACKAGES & DURATIONS	Fee Structure
	FII STOCKS	FII NIFTY F	FII BANK NIFTY	FII CNX IT FUT
3 Months	Any 1 of the above- Rs.4,000 Any 2 of the above-Rs. 6,000 Any 3 of the above-Rs.10,000 All the 4 of the above-Rs.12,000
6 Months	Any 1 of the above- Rs.6,000 Any 2 of the above-Rs.10,000 Any 3 of the above-Rs.14,000 All the 4 of the above-Rs.20,000
12 Months	Any 1 of the above- Rs.10,000 Any 2 of the above-Rs. 16,000 Any 3 of the above-Rs.24,000 All the 4 of the above-Rs.32,000