India's economic growth will rise
to 7.3 per cent this fiscal and further to 7.6 per cent in the next financial
year, retaining the fastest-growing Asian economy tag, on back of GST and
banking reforms.
In its Asian Development Outlook
(ADO), 2018, Manila-based ADB said, "risks to trade are high" and
retaliatory actions could dent growth in the Asian region going forward.
With 7.3 per cent growth projected
for this fiscal, India would be reversing the two-year declining trend.
"Despite the short-term costs, the benefits of reform such as the recently implemented GST will propel India's future growth," ADB Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada said.
"Despite the short-term costs, the benefits of reform such as the recently implemented GST will propel India's future growth," ADB Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada said.
Robust foreign direct investment
flows attracted by liberalised regulations and the government steps to improve
the ease of doing business will further bolster growth, Sawada said.
The ADO said protectionist trade
measures by the United States are yet to impact trade flows to and from
Asia.
"However, further action and retaliation against it (US trade tariffs) could undermine the business and consumer optimism that underlies the regional outlook (for Asia)," it said.
"However, further action and retaliation against it (US trade tariffs) could undermine the business and consumer optimism that underlies the regional outlook (for Asia)," it said.
With regard to China, it said the country will slow
down from 6.9 per cent in 2017 to 6.6 per cent this year, and 6.4 per cent in
2019.
"India would remain the fastest-growing country across Asia," ADB India Country Director Kenichi Yokoyama said. However, there are issues regarding rising NPAs and risks from crude oil prices rising above USD 70 a barrel, he said.
"India would remain the fastest-growing country across Asia," ADB India Country Director Kenichi Yokoyama said. However, there are issues regarding rising NPAs and risks from crude oil prices rising above USD 70 a barrel, he said.
He, further, said the impact of
the US tariff hikes may not be much, but India "need to be
cautious".
"The biggest risk factor could be the crude oil price," Yokoyama said.
"The biggest risk factor could be the crude oil price," Yokoyama said.
ADB's growth projection of 7.3 per
cent this fiscal is in line with that of rating
agency Fitch, but a tad lower than RBI's forecast of 7.4 per cent.
The ADO projected developing Asia to grow 6 per cent in 2018 and 5.9 per cent in 2019.
It, however, said the risks for Asian region are mostly on the downside.
The ADO projected developing Asia to grow 6 per cent in 2018 and 5.9 per cent in 2019.
It, however, said the risks for Asian region are mostly on the downside.
"The big risk, of course,
would be worsening trade friction. Another would be rapid capital outflows that
could materialise if the US Federal Reserve needed to raise interest rates
faster than markets expect.
"Finally, the continued build
up of private debt for some regional economies since the global financial
crisis could undercut growth. Developing Asia is well positioned to respond to
these shocks," it added.
India's growth is expected to pick
up further to 7.6 per cent in 2019-20 as efforts to strengthen the banking
system and continued corporate deleveraging are likely to bolster private
investment, the ADO said.
ADB India Senior Economics Officer Abhijit Sen Gupta said "further reform to strengthen bank governance is needed".
ADB India Senior Economics Officer Abhijit Sen Gupta said "further reform to strengthen bank governance is needed".
ADB projects global crude oil
prices to remain around USD 65 a barrel in 2018 and USD 62 a barrel in
2019.
Also, set to catalyse growth, are benefits from the GST as it mitigates geographic fragmentation and adds revenue to the exchequer, as well as further progress on fiscal consolidation and reform to promote FDI, the ADO said.
Also, set to catalyse growth, are benefits from the GST as it mitigates geographic fragmentation and adds revenue to the exchequer, as well as further progress on fiscal consolidation and reform to promote FDI, the ADO said.
It said the prospects for policy stimulus remain limited and there is
risk of tight interest rate regime.
"The deferment of fiscal consolidation, upside risks to inflation, and expected hikes in US interest rates in 2018 squeeze maneuvering room for policy rate cuts to stimulate growth. At the same time, the odds of a rate hike are low with the central bank indicating tolerance for slightly higher inflation and recognition of the need to nurture recovery. Consequently, the status quo is likely to hold in FY2018, albeit with some risk of monetary tightening," the ADO said.
It projected inflation to average
4.6 per cent in FY2018 (2018-19), rising to 5.0 per cent in FY2019 with
further firming of global commodity prices and strengthening of domestic
demand. "The deferment of fiscal consolidation, upside risks to inflation, and expected hikes in US interest rates in 2018 squeeze maneuvering room for policy rate cuts to stimulate growth. At the same time, the odds of a rate hike are low with the central bank indicating tolerance for slightly higher inflation and recognition of the need to nurture recovery. Consequently, the status quo is likely to hold in FY2018, albeit with some risk of monetary tightening," the ADO said.
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