Click
here http://meghainvestments.blogspot.in/2012/03/indian-stock-market-outlook-as-on.html
to read our article of 11
March 2012 where we clearly said that “VIEW CAUTIOUS: EXIT LONG POSITIONS OR LONG NEXT MONTH’S 4800 PUT
OPTIONS’ and also distinctly written “MONTHLY
PATTERN NOT IN FAVOUR OF BULLS”
On 12 march Nifty was
trading above 5400 and went up to 5499 on 14 march, and since then started declining
making lower lows and now on 11th May (in the very last trading
session) made low of 4906!!
Our this
article is coming almost after 2 months. That is the kind of research we
produce. If you want regular updates, and research via phone and sms, email as
well as trading and investment advice then you may check out our site www.meghainvestments.com or contact
us.
The point is
that you will find daily, weekly and endless number of research, and articles
and views and reports etc.so on on the internet by several brokerage companies,
and advisors/analysts; but from our experience we have known that all these
frequent bla-bla only of so-called analysis many times creates chaos and
confuses the traders and investors a more, so at MEGHA INVESTMENTS AND RESEARCH
we give one opinion to our readers and don’t confuse with upgrades and change
in views, we try to give as distinct view as possible and a reasonable
timeframe which can give our readers room and meaning to act on that whether
they are traders or investors. Today, when people trying to figure out where
the markets are headed can find hundreds of charts, and fundamental analysis,
and detailed derivatives analysis, and so on; it is time to put simple research,
with indeed simple logics that even the readers understands rather than vice
versa.
WHAT
NOW WITH NIFTY?
As you can see
in the chart of nifty spot given here, there are 3 gaps that remain to be
filled. Going by that the gap of 4881 (i.e nifty has to tick 4881) can come in
next week, while the final downside as per this is nifty touching 4646. Thus,
that will become a level to buy, else the index will remain a product to short
on rises.
We strongly believe that select stocks
from pharma, fmcg, auto will continue to
remain up and strong while leaving those with 30 plus PEs on the way up when
realty, infra, power, telecom is starting to do good going forward. The real
money will be made here only and not trying to hide behind so called safetyness
of ITCs, and HULs. Because market is for making money…when it can be made.
The important
thing is that the index consolidated for 2good long months, after what we believed
to be a classic bottom our pattern made
in January 2012 (see different chart). However this was very pathetic for many
stocks, as stocks had to go down even after making this type of classic (where
9 out of 10 times works or deemed or taken to be granted to be so as per the
pattern) bottom out pattern, the stocks went lower levels due to big events not
providing boost (budget, Euro crisis and politics etc) This was indeed a heightened scenario and one or its kind of
phenomena where (many) stocks made 52 week high and 52 week lows in a span of
less than 4 months!! For e.g (first high and then low, if it is first
low then high scenario it is good, obviously..!) However, when the world economy and domestic economy as well are going
through extraordinary situations and happenings, such behavior of market is not
completely surprising.
NIFTY STILL
LOOKS WEAK TILL 4400: GAP OF 4646, NEED TO FILL: TIME TO BUY ATM PUTS
The NSE Nifty spot closed at 4929 down by 37
points and BSE Sensex closed at 16293 down by 0.77% on weekend. Among the individual stocks, Tata Power, Sun Pharma, Hindalco, Coal India, maruti Suzuki,State Bank of India, Reliance Industries, Infosys, TCS, Wipro, larsen and Toubro were among the top losers. On the
other hand, HDFC, ICICI bank, Hero MotoCorp and BHELwere among the gainers. Metal stocks Tata Steel, Sterlite Industries, Jindal Power and Hindalco lost significant ground last week. Several other
metal stocks, including SAIL and JSW Steel, also ended weak. IT majors Infosys, Wipro, Tata Consultancy Services and HCL Technologies lost ground amid lingering concerns
about the economic situation in Europe.
INTERNATIONAL
DIPOSITORIES RATES:
|
ADR/GDR
|
|
|
|
|
|
Latest (US$)
|
Price % chg
|
% Prem/Disc
|
|
Dr. Reddys
|
31.9
|
1.1
|
0.4
|
|
HDFC Bk
|
31.6
|
0.8
|
8.7
|
|
ICICI Bk
|
30.8
|
1.1
|
0.9
|
|
ITC
|
4.5
|
0.2
|
(0.1)
|
|
Infosys
|
44.5
|
0.1
|
1.3
|
|
Ranbaxy
|
9.6
|
(0.5)
|
2.5
|
|
Reliance
|
26.2
|
1.7
|
0.8
|
|
Wipro
|
9.2
|
0.8
|
20.3
|
|
SBI
|
70.8
|
0.6
|
2.6
|
|
Tata Motors
|
27.2
|
0.0
|
0.3
|
|
Sterlite
|
7.3
|
0.3
|
2.2
|
|
L&T
|
21.6
|
0.7
|
0.1
|
INTERNATIONAL
COMMODITIES QUOTES:
|
Commodities
|
|
% change
|
||
|
|
Last close
|
1 day
|
3 mth
|
YTD
|
|
Crude (US$/bbl)
|
96.1
|
(1.1)
|
(2.6)
|
(2.8)
|
|
Gold (US$/oz)
|
1,587
|
(0.5)
|
(7.9)
|
1.5
|
|
Copper (US$/mt)
|
8,207
|
0.5
|
(3.0)
|
8.1
|
|
Aluminium (US$/mt)
|
2,005
|
(0.2)
|
(9.1)
|
0.5
|
|
Zinc (US$/mt)
|
1,966
|
1.5
|
(4.8)
|
7.6
|
CURRENCY
PAIRS:
|
Currency
|
|
% change
|
||
|
|
Last close
|
1 day
|
3 mth
|
YTD
|
|
Rs/US$
|
53.43
|
(0.7)
|
(7.5)
|
(0.7)
|
|
Rs/EUR
|
69.10
|
(1.0)
|
(5.2)
|
(0.5)
|
|
US$/GBP
|
1.61
|
(0.1)
|
2.3
|
3.8
|
|
US$/EUR
|
1.29
|
(0.1)
|
(2.0)
|
(0.3)
|
|
Yen/US$
|
79.86
|
(0.1)
|
(2.9)
|
(3.7)
|
NIFTY SPOT:-
The NSE Nifty spot closed at 4929 down by 37
points on weekend and broken consolidation support of 5115. Investors are
advised to be very cautious about more investing. There is a gap between 2nd
and 3rd January of 4646 level. Nifty spot will has to fill that gap and on the
other hand, if we look in to the lower indicators, MACD is still in cutting
downward situation whereas stochastic is making zigzag pattern. This
eliminates, more selling pressure can be seen in next days. Buy nifty stocks
when nifty index will move nearer 4650 level.
HDFC:-
Fundamentally and economically very good
stock, but technically looks weak till 628 and 600 level. HDFC investors are
advised to be cautious about more investment in next days. It seems more
selling pressure till 600 level. Buy this stock at 600 level would be
favorable.
KOTAKBANK:-
Recently made high at 600 level in declining
market, Kotak Bank closed at 512 on previous weekend. This stock can make
downward trend if it seriously breaks the support of 525 which is nearer to 100
day exponential moving average. Some supports can be considered like
536/525/510 with resistances like 549/560/578.
