SPECIAL REPORT ON MATHAMATICAL TARGETS OF SENSEX NIFTY:
Dear investors and traders,
We all have been using technical analysis and technical indicators for long time. But there are so many individuals in the world who found their own theories based on mathematics and statistical formulation and became successful, one of such math theory we ourselves use and remain successful in forecasting.
Here we have attempted to forecast the targets of SENSEX and NIFTY on the basis of our own selected mathematical criterions, which has indeed given mind-blowing analysis.
Below are targets for sensex and nifty for 2010 on the basis of our mathematical formula.
SENSEX | NIFTY |
targets based on Maths | |
20740 | 6133 |
22765 | 6708 |
26039 | 7640 |
31338 | 9145 |
The above target are just based on mathematical calculation and doesn’t support any arguments of technical analysis, hence there is no way for confirming the targets arrived at using such as mathematical formula in technical analysis.
For REGULAR UPDATES AND ANALYSIS join our paid/free service and visit our web-sites regularly based on technical and fundamental analysis.
COMMENTARY:
Last week was a small week of just 3 days. The sensex again tried to close above 17500 but it failed to close above this major resistance levels. If sensex is able to close above 17500 in the next week then we may consider target of 18100/18900 then our 19013 (http://www.smsgupshup.com/search?query=19013&x=0&y=0) and19500 based on head and shoulder and cup and handle formation which has been explained in previous articles and reports.
So we will wait till this Friday and watch weather sensex cross 17500 and close above 17500 on weekly basis with significant higher volumes or not. Thereafter we will take any decision otherwise we will maintain cautious attitude and doors are open to fall up to 12000 levels. Always remember “If the markets are continuously going up doesn’t mean, the markets will continue to continuously go up.” If you are late in the party doesn’t meant the party should extend more.
DOW JONES-
Dow is in the super cycle wave 2 in Elliott wave theory.
Wave 1 was down from 14198 to 6469.
Wave 2 6469 to 10580 (currently in progress).
This wave may end hear!
There are possibilities that the Wave 3 may start and take Dow Jones to new low below 6469!
To support my argument we have drawn trend from 14198 to 13138 when Dow was falling. Now this trend line value is between 10500 to 11000 levels and Dow is currently trading same levels and it has given down ward jerk on the last trading day of 2009 with co-incidence of full moon and solar eclipse which is also supporting my argument of ending wave 2 and start of wave 3 which is down wave.
To understand this on chart refer the chart given in this article, or click the below link: http://www.meghainvestments.com/2009/12/down-jones-super-cycle-wave-analysis.html
FUNDAMENTAL STOCK PICK
ESS DEE ALUMINIUM LTD.
CMP 378 target 600.
Growth in pharms, fmcg and food will bring growth in the top and bottom line of the India’s biggest aluminum foil maker. After acquiring India foils Ltd which has higher capacity then ess dee aluminium, the company is likely to benefit on business of scale.
MUTUAL FUND PICK
FRANKLIN INDIA PRIMA FUND-AVOID.
ARGUMENT: From 2004 this fund is not giving higher returns then its benchmark S&P 500.
WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK
Support at 5100/5050
Resistance 5370/5400
No trading strategy this week!
TECHNICAL STOCK PICKS
Ambuja cement:
stop loss 100 targets 108/111
Goderaj ind:
stop loss 178 targets 191/196
Good luck steel:
stop loss 34 targets 43/47
Bajaj auto:
stop loss 1693 targets 1815/1865
KEY NEWS TO WATCH OUT
Auto, cements, steel co will be in focus ,as they will announce sales numbers of December 2009 month.
GLOBAL MARKETS 2009 Snap-Shot:
A year of record for Stock Markets world over:
Forecast of Emerging markets, Emerging market valuations and Emerging markets Earning Expectations.
Friends, in the year we saw a global recession since World War 2. The interesting thing was that the recession lasted shorter than even the previous cyclic recessions. This follows the argument that the capital markets (not financial markets) are better barometers and unemployment rate and other core economic criterions affecting the domestic economy and some affecting global economy are less considered while determining whether we are in recession or not. We will have a discussion on this soon later. For now acquaint yourself with some information and projections for the year that ended and for the one which resumed.
The USA’s S&P 500 posted an average decrease of 0.9 percent a year since 1999 including dividends, the first negative return for a decade since 1927. The US stocks posted biggest annual gain since 2003.
The UK’s FTSE 100 Index rose 22 percent in 2009, its biggest annual rise since 1997.
The Chinese markets Index SCI increased 79 percent in 2009.
The Bovespa index of Brazil rose 83 percent in 2009.
While Indian Sensex soared 80 percent in the year 2009.
The MSCI emerging market index posted its best performance (74 percent) since its beginning. The MSCI index started in1987. The index has doubled in value over the decade.
Russia’s RTS Index posted the biggest annual gain world wide by soaring 129 percent in 2009. Read a full coverage on Russia as an emerging market in next week here.
IMF- International Monetary Fund projections:
The IMF projected 5.1 percent growth for the developing nations. While it has projected 1.3 percent growth rate for the developed nations.
FORECASTS OF EMERGING MARKETS:
JP Morgan has forecasted 34 percent rise in MSCI Emerging market index.
While Morgan Stanley has predicted 20 per cent rise and Credit Suisse has forecasted 20 percent rise in the widely followed emerging market index.
GROWTH EARNINGS EXPECTATIONS IN EMERGING MARKETS:
According to one report by news agency Bloomberg a compilation of analysts’ forecasts in earnings shows following results.
Estimated earnings growth rate in Brazil may be 18 percent.
Estimated earnings growth rae in Chinese companies may be 13 percent.
Estimated growth rate in earnings in India may be negative 0.40 percent.
EMERGING MARKET VALUATIONS:
According to summary of data of various analysis the China’s Shanghai Index is expensive which is trading at 19 times estimated 2010 earnings. India’s Sensex is valued at 17 times while Brazil’s Bovespa trades for 14 times. Amongst this the Russian RTS trades the lowest valuations of all Emerging markets.
The MSCI Emerging Market index is valued at 13 times.
