Gold News India July Import Export 2017 First Half Sales

India gold imports in H1, 2017 greater than all of 2016.
 India imported 521 tonnes of gold in first half of 2017.
 H1 figure for gold imports $22.2 Bln versus $23 Bln in all ’16.
 Gold demand was up 15% year- on-year in the first quarter.
 June gold imports climbed to an estimated 75 tonnes from 22.7 tonnes a year ago.
 Annual total set to surpass 900 tons, strongest year since ’12.
 “I trust gold more than the currencies of countries” – 63% of Indians in Survey.

GOLD hit all-time high rising $260+ as forecasted clearly on 11 April 2010

Click below link to read the post given on 11 April-2010, clearly stating about Gold prices to hit New High when it was trading at 1161 USD..

 click below for proof..

http://www.meghainvestments.com/2010/04/comex-gold-to-hit-all-time-high.html

You can also see it in the comex 1 year gold chart given herewith...

 IF YOU ARE A COMMODITY TRADER OR IN ANYWAY NEED BETTER COMMODITY PRICES FORECASTING/ADVISORY/TRADING CALLS SERVICE THEN PLEASE CLICK HERE FOR DETAILS..

Comex Gold To Hit All Time High ?

From every  time we have given my transparent  view on global market,commodities,currency.


Many time we have written that comex gold.
3 CONSTITUTIVE + WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW $1040 WILL START WAVE  5 
AS PER WAVE COUNT TARGET WILL BE BETWEEN $900 TO $850.

...Just see gold never close 3 consecutive days or weekly below 1040,made low of 1085 and hit last lower top of $1161...

...click on the link what we have written about gold 
http://www.meghainvestments.com/2010/02/gold-complete-4-wavebelow-1040-will.html 

now open your eyes and read carefully bears only control below $1040 and that never happen.

Now what to expect from this levels?

3 CONSTITUTIVE + WEEKLY CLOSE above 1161 will confirm the inverted head and shoulder pattern and my target will be 1247,
for clear chart click on the image.

 

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT FOR TRADERS AND INVESTORS

FUNDAMENTAL STOCK PICK

ZYDUS WELLNESS LTD.

RECOMMENDATION:

book profit/Avoid new investments/under weight.

About the Company:

After Cadila group acquired Carnation Nutra Analogue Foods from its earlier promoters, Cadila Healthcare demerged its Consumer products business in to CNFL and renamed CNFL to Zydus Wellness.

The company has very popular brands Sugar Free-the low calorie sweetener, Nutralite-the premium table spread and EverYuth-a specialty skin care range.

Sugar free-India’s largest sweetener

Having 78% market share, with a presence in both aspartames as well sucralose categories, Sugar Free enjoys a top of the mind recall in the minds of calorie conscious consumers.

Making a foray in the low calorie beverage market, the division successfully extended the Sugar Free brand name to launch its soft drink Sugar Free D-lite.

Nutralite-butter brand

'Nutralite' India's leading table spread offers several benefits for the health conscious and fitness conscious consumer as it is cholesterol free, has no hydrogenated fats and no trans fats. Low in saturated fats, Nutralite is also enriched with Vitamins A, D and E.

Ever youth-skin care

The specialty range of skin care products are marketed by the division under the umbrella name 'EverYuth'. The brand today enjoys the No.1 position in the scrub and peel-off categories and is the 2nd largest selling face wash brand in India

Having good products and strong customer base why we are under weighting the stock of Zydus Wellness?

First reason valuation is not justified in terms of sales growth and profit growth.

Second reason batter opportunity available at good valuation.

Let’s check the fundamentals of the stock.

Debt-free status: 100% debt-free-good for long term sustainable growth.

P/E multiple 42% vary high and above sales and profit growth rate.

PBV: Price to book value 18 times.

PCF: Price to cash flow 41 times.

Dividend yield just 0.39%.

So over all valuation is high and with no big margin of safety at current market price.

So we are underweighting the stock and recommending clients to book profit or avoid new investments in this stock.

MUTUAL FUND PICK:

Franklin India Blue-chip Fund

Recommendation:

Buy.

Ration: Good for long term conservative investors.

COMMODITY UPDATE:

Those who are regular readers of my week report knows many time I have describe views based on Dow theory and complex theory wave pattern.

Hear in this article I have expressed my view on gold based on Dow theory, wave patter and head and shoulder patter.

First chart is COMEX gold (USA):

We have shown wave structures which is as below,

Wave 1(down) 1226 to 1075.

Wave 2(up) 1075 to 1161.

Wave 3(down) 1161 to 1044.

Wave 4(up) 1044 to 1130.

Wave 5 down?

As per wave structure and calculations target of wave 5 will be 900 to 850.

If you see the wave structure which shows lower tops and lower bottoms.

Now to continue with this pattern gold needs to go below 1044.

Three consecutive and weekly closes below 1044 will confirm the down wave pattern.

Second chart is MCX gold:

Look at the chart which is forming higher tops and higher bottoms.

Now last higher bottom is 15950, now to break this higher tops and higher bottom formation gold needs to go and sustain below 15950, but our gold price is largely dependence on COMEX we will filter price by 3% and will confirm the bearish trend below 15450.

Along with this gold is forming large head and shoulder pattern of 4400 points.

Confirming head shoulder will come by two ways once comex gold gives three consecutive close below 1044 and mcx gold close below 15450 my target will be 12500.

US DOLLAR INDEX

From 75 levels I am bullish on us dollar index and now has crossed 81 mark.

I have attached chart which shows wave pattern.

Wave 1(up) 72.23 to 78.45

Wave 2(down) 78.45 to 76.60

Wave 3(up) 78.60 to 81.34

Wave 4(down) 81.34 to 79.51

Wave 5 up start above 81.34

Now if you mark this is forming higher tops and higher bottom ,now to start 5^th wave of up dollar needs to close 3 consecutive close above 81.34 then as per wave calculation my target 85.

If dollar get strong up to my target levels then I expect vertical fall across the commodities/gold/silver/metals.

GLOBAL MARKET

I have attached chart of S&P 500 of America.

Look at the chart index is forming higher tops and higher bottoms with this see it is forming 5 wave pattern.

If index close 3 consecutive days and weekly above 1178 then as per wave count my target is 1333 and 1397.

As per time series from low of 675 this is 13 month so this can change the trend but if it conclude the bullish condition then we will see another 4 month rally in US market and above target.

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK

Support at 5238/5180/5130

Resistance at 53010/5351/5387

Market is rising with lots of liquidity pumping By Fiis and domestic’s institutions (many time told in my fundamental analysis)

After constant rise from budget we are still below last high of 17800 and 5300 (cash market) respectively sensex and nifty ,yes we have not broken the lower bottom of 15300 and 4500 for nifty but we need to cross and substation above 17800 and 5300 with vary good volume.

If the above condition happens then we have given Elliott wave analysis of “common flat a-b-c” pattern and which will take sensex to 19300/19600 and in last leg it will cross 21000 mark also.

But we need to sustain above 17800 for quite some time say for 4 consecutive weeks, last time after Dubai fall sensex has taken out the 17500 levels but it sustain above 17500 for 2 weeks and panic start so this time we need to close above 17500 for at least 4 week thereafter we will see the next up move from hear.

In technical analysis every penny counts, still after such a rise we have not cross the high and in my last report I have argued about “head and shoulder” pattern and if we are not able to cross the high 17800 and 5300 then problem is their and doors for down side should be cautioned.

The rules of the game (stock market) is to be in direction of major trend and get out when the trend has reached the stage where almost everyone has become complacent and careless.

MOMENTUM CALLS

Market is at high speed and if you don’t wear helmet while you running bike at 100 speeds your life is at risk.

Hear we suggest you some trading calls but we also suggest you to buy April month put options to hedge you buying position because market is running on high speed and any single bed news will create vertical fall and you may loose significantly.

TATA MOTORS

Buy with stop loss 725 targets 770/782.

EVEREST KANTO

Buy with stop loss 115 targets 130/145.

IFCI

Buy above 53 stop loss 47 target 64.

GE SHIPPING

Buy with stop loss 290 target 308/318.

GVK POWER

Buy with stop loss 41 targets 49.

NMDC

Buy with stop loss 282 target 310/325.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“I am comfortable if we double our money in three years”

-Warren Buffett.

GOLD: REMAINING RATIONAL IN THE WORLD OF FINANCIAL ASSETS

GOLD: BEWARE OF IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE.

REMAINING RATIONAL IN THE WORLD OF FINANCIAL ASSETS.

THERE IS NO ‘HOLY COW’ IN FINANCIAL ASSETS MARKETS.

There are several reasons why gold prices should and should not keep on going up.

The ever weakening dollar- the gold bulls argue that the dollar is going to continue to weaken and due to that gold prices will continue to rise. But friends we have seen in history that the dollar has slid against euro even lower levels than the recent lows. 

Negative point:

The bear market in gold lasts a lot greater than that of equity.

I also feel that the end user has certain non-tolerance level when it comes to use of gold prices. The industrial people will definitely cut back on inventories while the users of jewelery will unless inevitable, not buy jewelery

There is a limit of tolerance for end users-the industry.

When more return/crazy euphoric bull markets in emerging-other equities will start fund managers will move from gold to equities.

People need to understand that International Funds/investors including hedge funds are traders of financial assets. They don’t fall in love with them. They trade with stoplosses and extensively use technical analysis and quant theories and models. So infact they are the biggest risk to gold prices because when they will sell, they will not care about ‘the the holy precious metal’ status. They will just sell when their trailing SL is hit.

IS WAR COMING?:

In fact the 9-11, afganistan, Iraq war ended. In case china invades Iraq it will not affect usa or Europe because their natural resource needs are satisfied by africal and other countries. Can china go war with usa. No one has given such opinion or view. China owns billions of dollar to America and japan is the world’s largest creditor nation. USA is increasingly strengthening its association with china. The terrosiam is an almost taken for granted permanent phenonmena. It impacts only crude oil and other commodities of ‘supplyable value’, mostly crude and natural gas. Both’s prices rise if some of these gang attacks on pipelines anywhere.

Gold is hoarded and is mostly recyclable unlike crude oil and agricommodities which are perishable and once used can not be recovered or reused.

The strongest point for gold is UNCERTAINTY IN CURRENCY MARKETS. A safety against currency crisis. Otherwise the reason for its priceros due to its emergence as an asset class seems to over-spoken. Its new for us but a decade old for the western ‘split second, pip’ investor and traders. If the currency crisis is coming it should have come when the lehman collapsed and almost the whole western economies paralyzed which was even termed immediately ‘to be a 1930 type of great depression’. If china don’t like dollar or want to sell dollar short of knows that it is going to diminish in value than why it is taking it's bond? Why it is giving loan to it. Today china is the biggest creditor of USA.

We don’t argue that the USA is omnipowerful or that the dollar will rule the world for next 100 years and more. But if the currency has to fail,these are surely not the signs of failing. In fact the depreciation in dollar helped USA to import cheap while its factories were down for a year and half due to recession. And assuming that the dollar will rise then the USA will pay less in interest for loans taken.

USA DEFICIT IS ALSO NOT NEW

USA has seen skyrocketing/gigantic deficits in its history. This is not new. People like jim rogers, buffet, mark faber have repeatedly criticizes USA govt. and fed to /borrow excessively/become debtful and print money and flood the system with money. But it should be noted that this is what is monetary economics all about. Its not that this is right. There are other proper ways. But nothing is perfect. Infact people praised fed and USA govt to save the economy from the SEVEREST ECONOMIC CRISIS SINCE 1930 DEPRESSION (we suspect if people will say it so, because the financial markets in the usa and other countries have already recovered, and as we are writing the usa dow jones is not much far from highs. Indeed this seemed to be a depression of financial markets and similarly a recovery of financial markets. After all it is a ‘financial market economy’. If it were a ‘real market economy’ such as in 1930 then the so-called 2007-08’s 1930 like of depression would have lasted much longer because that depression lasted more than 3 years until the government acted.

HISTORIC GOLD PRICE-CHARTS:

1975 2000.

1980-2007.

Started rising in 2002 till date.

GOLD COMPLETE 4 WAVE,BELOW $1040 WILL START WAVE 5

3 CONSTITUTIVE + WEEKLY CLOSE BELOW $1040 WILL START WAVE  5 
AS PER WAVE COUNT TARGET WILL BE BETWEEN $900 TO $850.

YES BELOW 1040 HUGE UNWINDING FROM HEDGE FUNDS


STREET WALKER SAYS NO IS READY TO BUY 191 TONNES OF GOLD FROM IMF!!!!!!!!!!

GOLD BELOW 16410 WILL KISS 15950 SOON

Sell in truck load below 16410 ,your stop loss 16800
will kiss 16312,16140,15950

below 15950 all round blood bath and bulls will be hang !

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT FOR TRADERS AND INVESTORS

FUNDAMENTAL STOCK PICK:

RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTURE LTD.

CMP 1062, TARGETS 1500/2000.

The company belongs to ADAG (Anil Dhirubai Ambani Group) having presence in power and infrastructure sectors.

Reliance Infrastructure is not only India’s largest private sector company in power but also the largest private sector company in many other infrastructure sectors of India.
In the power space it is involved in generation, transmission, distribution and trading of electricity and constructing power plants.
In the infrastructure space the company is focused on roads, Urban infrastructure which includes MRTS, Sea link and Airports, Specialty Real Estate which includes business districts, trade towers, convention centre and SEZ which includes IT & ITES SEZ and non IT SEZ as well as free trade zones.

The engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) division has an order book of Rs 21,500 crore.

In the Urban Infrastructure business, it is the country’s first and only private sector builder and operator for Metro Systems. It is already into construction of the first line of Mumbai’s Metro system stretching 12 kms from Versova to Ghatkopar. Besides it has also won the Delhi Metro’s airport express link stretching a length of 22.5 kms. The total investment for these two projects is Rs 4900 crore.

In specialty real estate business, it is the country’s first and only private sector builder to build India’s first 100 storeyed building, a trade tower and business district in 80 acres of land in Hyderabad. The total investment for this project is Rs 6,500 crores.

In Special Economic Zones (SEZs), it is developing over 180 mn sq ft of SEZ for IT/ITES, retail hospitality in Mumbai and Noida with an investment worth Rs 31,000 crore.

The infrastructure assets include six roads and two metro rail projects. The company has a healthy balance sheet, with over Rs 10,000 crore of cash and cash equivalent.

The company has plans to a JV venture for the electrical equipment manufacturing business.
In collaboration with Shanghai Electric, the company is examining the feasibility of setting up equipment manufacturing facilities for power generation, to cater to the domestic sector and to markets in the Middle East, Africa and South East Asia. The progress on the project will purely be on the basis of cost benefit analysis.

Hold your breath we have something more about this company…

This company holds 45% in reliance power which will generate 34000 mega watt powers in the next 7 to 8 years.

If we calculate the valuation @141 of reliance power then stake value per share of reliance infra will go to 1500.

Book value 525 per share (only of reliance infra and not unlisted company).

Total valuation= Reliance Power valuation + book value

                        =1500+525.

Total value=2025.

Now at price of 1062 what you are paying?

What is the value of infrastructure business?

What is the value of 981 mg power capacity?

Looking at above factors and analysis our price projection are 1500 and 2000.

MUTUAL FUND PICK:

HDFC PRUDENCE FUND

Recommendation: BUY.

Rational:

Excellent track record of equity investments.

Excellent track record of high grade debt investments.

Consistence dividends pay out.

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK:

SUPPORT AT 4700/4600/4550.

RESISTANCE AT 4907/4970/5050.

Trend reversal or correction? a million dollar question.

11% correction so far from 5300 to 4700.

Let’s paint the scenario to give answer of above question a trend reversal or correction by two way (1) technical analysis arguments (2) fundamental analysis arguments.

(1)  TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ARGUMENTS

This time lest see some more theory based analysis.

(1)  FALLING WEDGE

If you look at the chart one we have drawn two trend line on lower top lower bottom formation this is called falling wedge as per general rule falling wedge gives trend reversal from falling market to rising market.

If this happen then we may see faster recovery from current levels.

(2)  FIBONACCI-RETRACEMENT

Look at the chart no two we have drawn the Fibonacci retracement from 7697 to 17658.

The value of 23.6% retracement comes at 15400 .if we manage to hold this levels and market get recovery then we may consider this support has been taken by index.

It is not necessary to touch the support levels.

(3) 233 DMA

Look at the chart no. 3.

200 dma is widely used by all over world.

But at this crucial time we have used 233 dma ,if we calculate the value of 233 dma then it is 15380.

If market continues to trade well below 233 dma for 2-3 week then main trend can be in danger.

But in our case if we manage to hold this level then it will create heavy buying from the traders who follow technical analysis.

(4) DOW THEORY

Look at the chart no. 4.

As per dow theory index need to move in higher top higher bottom formation.

Index has already made higher top at 17500 now we need to substation above higher bottom which is placed at 15300.

If we manage to hold this support and cross the higher top of 17500 then we will consider this as normal pull back from 17500 levels and main trend of higher top higher bottom is intact.

(5) CANDLE THEORY

Look at the chart No. 5.

Look at the chart no 5, on quarterly chart index has make “HANGING MAN” formation.

As per hanging man formation if next candle close below the low of hanging man on quarterly basis then bears can take control of market.

On the other side if next candle close above the high of hanging man which is 17500 then bulls will take control of the market.

(2)  FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS ARGUMENTS

In India we have good corporate earning along with good GDP numbers unlike most countries last year.

India has political stability and growth visibility, this thing likely to continue to be one of the favored markets.

 Indian economy is domestic consumption story rather then export oriented so we will have our own growth story on the long run.

We believe that gold price are at higher levels and may not substation at this levels for now as dollar index has start recovering and will continue to recovery till 81 which will bring more correction in gold market .

We believe that falling gold price is good news for emerging market like India and china.

Hedge fund money will find another asset class (emerging markets) to park their money to earn good return.

If we remember in 2008 hedge fund have taken crude oil to $ 147 and then it fell to $32 and this money enter in to gold-due to sub-prime crisis and falling dollar index against major currencies.

Always remember money moves from one asset class to another asset class.

Dollar index to strengthen further and gold price will correct further and this will force hedge fund managers to exit from gold and find new asset class (emerging markets) to invest their money.

At this levels India and china offers good domestic consumption story with young generation will attract hedge fund money.

WHY STRONG DOLLAR AND WEAK GOLD ?

(1)  DOLLAR INDEX

Look at the weekly chart we have put RSI and MACD-both are positive.

Along with this we have put caltner channel and this is trying to cross this channel, as per rule when index close above the upper channel, index comes in the hand of powerful bulls.

Which looks positive and dollar index can move from current price of 80.36 to 81.25/82.96/85.

Strengthen in dollar will bring correction in gold price.

(2)  COMEX GOLD

Look at the daily chart of comex chart; it has formed the “head and shoulder” pattern.

Closing below the neckline of 1060 will trigger sell of by hedge fund and in panic it will slide to 1020/990 and even to 975 levels.

So strengthen in dollar index against major correction will trigger sell of in gold which can trigger inflow in Indian and Chinas market.

In short run market may move according to technical levels but in the long run it move along with economy and corporate earning.

Investments guru of world BENJAMIN GRAHAM says in short run stock market is voting machine and in the long run it is weighing machine.

We believe that there are ample opportunities available which can yield higher returns.

These have to un covered through research and meticulous stock selection.

In such scenario active portfolio management is likely to outperform passive strategies.

In India we will have good growth under insurance sector (particular ULIP) which will pump long term money in to Indian market.

Along with insurance sector online mutual fund will also help to tap the rural and urban money vary fast in long run.

Biggest Mistake Done By Common Investor Is,

They Don’t Buy When Stock Market Come Down At Value Buying Levels. 

If you want to manage your portfolio then you can subscribe in our portfolio management service.

You can also manage your hard earn money with our mutual fund portfolio management service.

We suggest investor our MID CAP PMS 1 AND 2 SERIES who has investment horizon of 1-2 years.

We suggest investor our 4ACE PMS who has investment horizon of 5 years or more.

CONCLUSION

So over all both on technical and fundamental arguments we believe this is not trend reversal and just a correction and trader and investor should find out value buying in market.