We
have seen that Indian stock market is trading at 2 year low points. India is
facing only problem regarding devaluating rupee and that is lead to increase in
inflation rate and slow down in GDP growth rate. In fact these factor are
indicating that our finance minister is going to tighten the monetary steps,
which might be negative for the market. Because right now it is important to
save the Indian rupee in a macro sense. Moreover we are seeing heavy panic
selling in the commodity products too. Then there is no matter whether it is
gold, silver, lead, zinc, crude, nickel etc. The prices of crude is going down
that might be a happy news but on the other hand India is paying crude import
money in international currency, that is dollar and which is become costly. So
again there will be no positive news of crude going down. , moreover our crude
import should be decrease as well as our Indian rupees should be strong. And
for that factors out finance minister is going to take some strict measures.
We
have seen a very strong re bound from the level of NIFTY 4775. There was a very
strong recovery from that point. Which might be an indication that market can
turn from the current level? So in near term we can see some positive triggers
in nifty. Nifty was even closed on 4900 level which is indicating that it has
made some bottom, but with the same thing nifty should trade near the level of
4900 to 5000 for some time, then we can say that it has made some bottom, but
for very near term still positive triggers are there for which we can trade.
However, our belief for possible rock bottom for nifty is below 4600 level and
not before that.
We
also believe that rest of the year 2012 is very attractive from investor’s
perspective and I think in next six month investors can earn good money. But in
2013 we are going to have election and that will completely change the picture
of the industry. So these seven month it will be very interesting.
If you are are investors
then invest only 25 % of your money, If you are speculator then you can go
short in nifty with a stop loss of 4980 for short side. If you want to buy then
buy nifty with a strict stop loss of 4780 in nifty for the very short term.
All long position in
nifty should be cut if nifty trade below 4780 and all short position in nifty
should cut if trade above 4980. (all
recommendations are subject to daily updates, so please become member of www.meghainvestments.com/subscribe.html for regular stock trading advice.
Some stock recommendations
|
Sr
No.
|
Scrip
|
Cmp
|
Target
price 2012 end
|
Probable
reutrn [in % ]
|
|
1
|
RCOM
|
65
|
90
|
38%
|
|
2
|
GMRINFRA
|
19.4
|
27
|
40%
|
|
3
|
GUJNRECOKE
|
16
|
23
|
45%
|
|
4
|
JSWENERGY
|
45
|
58
|
30%
|
|
5
|
IVRCL
|
44
|
60
|
35%
|
|
6
|
SINTEX
|
53
|
70
|
32%
|
|
7
|
HCC
|
18
|
24
|
33%
|
|
8
|
SUZLON
|
20
|
25
|
30%
|
|
9
|
UNITECH
|
21.5
|
28
|
30%
|
|
10
|
RELCAPITAL
|
280
|
364
|
30%
|
Nifty
is in no trade zone, Indian stock market tried hard to go up. But each try has
been laid down by sentiments of the international market. We have seen that
everyday market open with positive sentiments and then close with big red mark
ticks. Which is indication that speculators are selling in each and every rise
of the markets? So it is very risky to be in long side and Bull Run. But at the
same time, some of the mid cap stock are looking very attractive. Which are
shown above?
Trading strategy for nifty :-
Range of the nifty
is seen in the levels of 4750 to 5000
Buy call of
nifty 5000 strike price at 38
Sell call of
nifty 5100 strike price at 15
Buy put of 4900
strike price at 78
Sell put of
nifty 4800 strike price at 43
Premium paid
38 + 78 – 15 – 43 = 58 will be maximum profit
Both side moments
covered. Stop loss nifty below 4642 and above 5058
Investors need
no tension. If nifty goes up or down they will earn profit.
Trading strategy for bank nifty
To drag down
nifty to 4700 to 4800 levels, bank nifty will play big negative role and to
increase nifty bank nifty will play a positive role so use below strategy.
Buy call of
bank nifty of strike price 9500 at 109
Sell call of
bank nifty of strike price 9600 at 80
Sell put of
bank nifty of strike price 9100 at 115
No stop loss
required. Safe strategy at least no risk for losing money.
Net premium
received will be 110 – 80 – 115 = 85.
On expiry
profit is sure. As bank nifty will increases 9500 and will give profit and as
looking like closes between 9200 to 9500 levels. Premium for 9100 and 9600 will
be very low. So again profit.
Pair trade: HPCL & BPCL
We may see a
price hike in Petroleum Company very soon. It is must by government. This
decision has been delayed by last two months. And Petroleum Company is
incurring a big losses and government want to cut the Burdon of the subsidy. So
government is going to allow the petroleum company to increase the petrol prices.
So either purchase HPCL and BPCL future at any price on Monday. As they both
are traded very less in option we can’t give recommendation to buy option for
that.
Pair trade: infosys & wipro
Investors
can short infosys and buy wipro as infosys are having problems while doing
business as well as they are some problem regarding visa of employee. Moreover
employees are resigning from the job. So short infosys at …….for the price
target of rs 1980 rs in next two month while investors can buy a steady
company like wipro for the price target
of rs 430 in next two month. Stop loss for infosys will be 2550 and for wipro
it will be 395. Profit is looking sure in this strategy.
HDIL:
REVERSAL BULL PATTERN STRATEGY.
This
stock is trading at 50% low of its pick of 130 rs of February May be rebound
very fast compare to nifty so following strategy can be used to gain profit. Buy
call of hdil of strike price 70 rs at 0.85 and sell call of 75 rs strike price
at 0.40 .
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