WEEKLY MARKET REPORT FOR TRADERS AND INVESTORS

In this kind of market many small investor often gets trapped and buys shares which are in fancy like which we have seen in 2008 market crash. If you have missed to read the last week report then let me give you all three stock which we have written to avoid are Think Soft, James Hotels, Jay Bbharat Textile and Real Estate.

Again in this week I am writing about such two stocks from investors should stay away.

Avoid below stocks,

(1)      Shree global trade fin:

Company is engage in trading of hot rolled coils, cold rolled steel sheets, hot rolled plate, ms channels, and ms beams.

Out of 67 trading session stock was locked In upper circuits in 53 sessions, despite of the manic move stock continue traded in B category instead of shifting in trade to trade segments.

Let’s checkout the fundamentals of the company.

Stock price is trading with whopping P/E multiple of 1800 and book value of just 10.59 per share.

Investors should be aware of such shares.

(2)  Anand Credits:

Under listing agreements clause 34 , the company was suspended from trading due to non payments of annual listing fees from 10 September 2000.

Stock was re-listed on 27 January 2010 with price of 50 and this counter jumped to 65 to its all time high.

This Ahmedabad based company is engage in financial service

We suggest that investor beware of such shares.

SECTOR WATCH-(MID CAP IT INDUSTRY)

In the last weekly report I have given my bullish view on hotel sector and given buy on EIH.

On Thursday and Friday most of TV channel were discussing about bullish trend in hotel sector ahead.

Strong dollar and recovering banking, financial, service and insurance sector is helping to revive larger IT Company such as infosys, wipro, and tcs.

But in my view smaller IT company which are engaged in industrial salutations will do well selectively like engineering, because not only Indian industrial but also world over industrial is recovering.

STOCK PICK:

Geometric: 

Company is engaged in engineering salutations and products life cycle management business

This company is promoted by well know business house goderaj group and rakesh jujnjuwals and his wife holds nearly 10% in the company.

This company provides design salutations in India and across the world to automobile and industrial segments.

Last year company has acquired US based modern  engineering and revival in industrial will help to revive this company ,apart from this company has changed its hedging strategy against dollar and this will improve the next quarterly results of the company.

Technically this counter is much stronger compare to other mid size IT Company and will outperform.

Investor can buy on deep with stop loss of 41 and expect target of 120-125 based on Elliott wave count

FUNDAMENTAL VIEW ON NIFTY:

Currently nifty is trading above 22 P/E multiple.

In normal condition it trades between 22 to 23 multiple.

While in bubble situation this P/E multiple expand to 28 levels and historically in 1992, 2000 and in 2008 we have seen the same P/E multiple.

As per historic data India stock market enters in bubble zone at every 8 years so next bubble should be only in 2016.

If in this current year nifty and sensex cross 6500 and 21000 levels then we will create history by entering in to bubble zone in just 2 years of time frame.

Those who are value investor or value buyers the valuations are not cheap and margin of safety is also low. But those who follow the growth investing theory the valuation may be cheap.

Those who believe in value investing should book profit if market rise to 21000 from current 18000 levels.

Remember in 2007-2008 we were telling to exit from the market from 18000 levels and target given 11000 then what happen you all know.

TEHCNICAL VIEW OF SENSEX AND NIFTY:

From Elliott wave and Dow Theory if sensex closes 4 consecutive weeks above 17800 then in 3^rd wave will rise to 19300/19600 and then finally in 5^th wave 21000 levels.

On hourly charts as long as sensex and nifty manage to hold about 5200 and 17800 levels we may see more up side till 5500/5600 in nifty and 18200/18500 in sensex.

If US index S&P 500 gives weekly close above 1178 on Friday then wave count and Dow Theory will take to 1400 levels and strong support will be 1044 levels.

So, all eyes are on US market.

GOLD ANALYSIS:

Before 2 week ago I have given analysis of comex gold and told panic will come only if it gives 3 consecutive closes below $1090 and see it gives close only one day below $1090 and rebound to $1150 levels.

Now major resistance is $1166 on COMEX and on MCX 17100.

MOMENTUM CALLS

Market is at high speed and if you don’t wear helmet while you running bike at 100 speeds your life is at risk.

Hear we suggest you some trading calls but we also suggest you to buy April month put options to hedge you buying position because market is running on high speed and any single bed news will create vertical fall and you may loose significantly

Geomatric software

3^rd wave on hourly charts. Buy with stop loss of 65 and target 77.

IFCI

Some speculative position build up in this counter.  Buy with stop loss of 49. And target of 57.

Neyveli lignite

As per time series reversal will come. Bbuy with stop loss of 144 and targets of 159/162.

SREI infra

5^th wave above 82 on hourly charts. Buy with stop loss 74 and targets of 85/88.

Adani enterprise

3^rd wave on hourly charts. Buy with stop loss 467 and target of  530.

IMPORTANT NOTES

On 12 April industrial production data will be announced.

Next week China and Singapore to announce quarterly GDP numbers.

Metals index to relatively under-perform.


Quote of the Week:
For traders,
"A speculator must concern himself with making money out of the market and not with insisting that the tape agree with him."
-From book "Reminiscences of a stock operator".

Forex Terms

Appreciation is when a currency’s value grows stronger.

Ask Rate is the rate at which a trader can buy a currency that is for sale.

Base Currency is the currency in which other currencies are quoted in a pair. Usually the U.S. dollar is considered the ‘Base Currency’.

Bid/Ask Spread is the difference between the bid and offer price or buy and sell price.

Big Figure is a term used by dealer and/or brokers. It refers to the first few digits of an exchange rate.

Clearing is a term used to refer to a process of settling a trade.

Commission is the fee that is charged by a broker/dealer.

Confirmation is a document that states the terms of a transaction.

Contract is the standard unit of trading.

Cross Rate is the exchange rate between any two currencies that are not of the country in which the currency pair is quoted. For example, in the U.S., a GBP/JPY quote would be considered a Cross Rate. The same quote would not be a Cross Rate in either the U.K. or Japan.

Orient Paper and Industries Ltd.-Exit in Profit @ TGT of 60.

Just Click on the below Link where recently WE RECOMMENDED ORIENT PAPER:
http://www.meghainvestments.com/2010/04/orient-paper-5-th-wave-start.html

Become A Member. Call now on 09377008708.

List of Markets All Over the World

5th and last explosive wave start in ESS DEE ALUMINIUM

Delivery Pick

ESS DEE ALUMINIUM

STOP LOSS 345 TARGET 600(5th wave on daily charts starts)

World Health Day: Book on Mental Fitness for Traders

Signs of a Losing Trader

1. He doesn't have a trading System.
2. He doesn't know the different between trading and investing.
3. He acts on impulse and follow every bit of piece of news. His eyes remain on CNBC in hotel while his    girlfriend is talking him something.
4. He doesn't have a trading plan strategy.
5. He let's his losses become bigger. He is more lose averse than risk-averse.
6. He doesn't trade with probability assumptions.
7. He is undisciplined.
8. Tries to read too much into the news.
9. Mistake of overtrading and exhaustive trading.
10. Lack of sound Money-management plan.
11. Lack of risk management techniques.
12. Does not have control on his emotions such as greed, fear, rage, depression.

Gujarat Hotels Ltd.-Paid Members Enjoying Luxury of PROFITS!!!

Just CLICK the below link where we Strongly RECOMMENDED Gujarat Hotels Ltd. which was given to our OPERATOR BASED SURESHOT members:
http://www.meghainvestments.com/2010/03/operator-based-call-from-hotel-sector.html

Now Just See How It has crossed all the TARGETS...
Get OPERATOR BASED SURESHOT CALLS-Weekly one call.
Join Today. Dial-09377008708.

Power Punch delivery calls given to paid members

GMDC-cheating on charts formation and triangle on daily charts -power rally above 150 stop loss 135 target 178

 IDFC- 3rd and explosive wave start on hourly charts stop loss 160 target 172

 SYNDICATE BANK-3rd and explosive wave start on hourly charts stop loss 85 target 97

CRUDE OIL AND PICK THEORY

EXCLUSIVE CRUDE OIL REPORT

Yes, Crude Oil Prices can touch to New Highs and Beyond...

“ACCORDING TO ‘PICK OIL THEORY’ THE PRICES OF CRUDE OIL MAY TOUCH $300 PER BARREL”

BELL CURVE:

The production of crude oil normally follows  the shape of a ‘bell-curve’ in which we can say it to be peak production when on the graph this curve comes in the centre top. At this level the production has been peaked i.e. this is the time and quantum of maximum production and from here on the production decreases. (see figure). Paring some exceptions this phenomena is true for a single oil well, a whole oil-field, a country and the whole wordl.

“Peak-Oil doesn’t mean we will become ‘oil-less’, but is surely means we become ‘cheap oil-less”.

The pick oil theory which was made by American Geologist King Herbert, is also known as Herbert Pick Theory. According to this theory’s conclusions, due to declining exploration and sharply decreasing production ; we may see tremendous blast and rocket pace rise in prices of fossil fuels, mainly crude oil. This Pick Oil theory works on the basis of principle based on long-term production and declining reserve rate of fossil energy sources such as coal, crude oil, natural gas etc.

We will try to evaluate this theory through various facts, figures, logics and arguments in this special ‘$300 CRUDE OIL SPECIAL REPORT’.

-       There are many reasons behind the strengthening fears of decrease in the reserves/availability of traditional sources of energy such as fossil fuels (like crude oil etc.)  such as,

o   The technology relating to acquisition and analysis of geological information, is improving day by day.

FKONCO (EARLIER DABUR PHARMA) BROKEN TRIANGLE:

BSE CODE: 532545


Catch on the Opening bell on Monday with stop loss of 115, target 160, just see broken triangle.

Orient Paper Ltd.- 5th Wave Started...

This is the chart of Orient Paper and Industries Ltd.


Wave 5th to start.
Buy choice of your quantity and have patience for target of 60 and yes never forget to keep stop loss of 47.

More from Charlie Munger- On Economy, booms and busts

        Here is some more on video tuting from Charlie Munger, Warren Buffet's partner in Berkshire Hathaway. Where he talks about booms, busts, on economy, about Allan Greenspan,  about their CocaCola investment, about succession of Berkshire Hathaway, about 'the locker room culture' in Wall-Street and many more things worth giving an ear for a serious student of investing and economy. 
Below are excerpts:

• Be ready to face 50% decline in your quoted value of investments at 2 to 3 ocassions.
• Economy runs worst without a system of wise restraints.
• Markets needs to be dampened for this.
• Don't go way too far in financial deregulation.
• Talks about 'idiot boom' and 'idiot expansion of consumption'.
• He says Allan Greenspan is his hero because he accepted that 'he is a horse's ass'.
• Wall-street tracks and rewards ''locker-room culture'. and they do a lot of damage to investors like Buffet and he.
• The reasons ideas such as Buffett's are not so popular is because 'they are so simple and so obvious'
• Keep a mindset of a person buying a whole business.
• He and Buffett speaks normally every week only.
• Berkshire is probably the most 'decentralized corporate' in the world.

Charlie Munger talks "investing filters"

           Charlie Munger is not very much known. Although he is a second part heading the Berkshire Hathaway Group for which Warren Buffett is World Famous and has established himself as the invincible investment guru of ages. It was Charlie Munger who made Buffett take decision on buying shares of Cocacola Company, which is Warren Buffet's one of the top five investments. He often say Charlie taught him things which he did not know out of the Benjamin-Dodd mathematics.We will try and attempt put more from Charlie Munger to see if find more gems in investing which could be undiscovered.

Rajesh Exports Ltd.-TGT Achieved BEFORE Time!! 50% Return!!

1st Just CLICK the below LINK: Clearly Shown the "Cup & Handle Pattern":

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Now All Know It is Trading Above 100+, that is Rs.118...Giving A return of 50% from our Strong BUY Recommendation levels of Rs.50.


FOR MORE SENSIBLE AND GENUINE INVESTING RECOMMENDATION, BECOME A MEMBER- DIAL 09377008708.

Gujarat NRE Coke: Shooting beyond TGT of 90!!!

Hit the below LINK, where just before few days, told all strongly to BUY GUJ NRE COKE without worry: http://www.meghainvestments.com/search/label/guj%20nre%20coke

And NOW TRADING at above TGT of 90+...Meeting Targets is not our goal, Beating Targets is our conviction"

The AVERAGE should be better than the AVERAGE

            It should always be a trader's target to not become better but become better than the average. Because all counts is comparative competitiveness in markets. If Einstein is not trading then you don't have to prepare to compete with him. You don't need to be the best pr the smartest. Just remember this to win in any market: "Average should be better than the average". There will be people who don't learn from mistakes and who will continue to continue to do mistakes. Your job is to do them and take their money before or either anyone else does that. Yes, thats trading!. You have to take benefit before his days are over. Trade with an attitude of rising ABOVE AVERAGE. And the market consists of these 'Averages' which always remain above the Average.

Gokul Refolis

Gokul Refoils:
Dont Miss my target 72, your sl 59.
Rs.500 crore real estate in Ahmedabad.
10 point rectangle triangle.
Yesterday who bought 6.50lakh shares?

Be Technical NOT Skeptical

"A Skeptic who doesn't like prices rising randomly, continuously, without reasons is ill-suited for bull markets"

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT FOR TRADERS AND INVESTORS

FUNDAMENTAL STOCK PICK

ZYDUS WELLNESS LTD.

RECOMMENDATION:

book profit/Avoid new investments/under weight.

About the Company:

After Cadila group acquired Carnation Nutra Analogue Foods from its earlier promoters, Cadila Healthcare demerged its Consumer products business in to CNFL and renamed CNFL to Zydus Wellness.

The company has very popular brands Sugar Free-the low calorie sweetener, Nutralite-the premium table spread and EverYuth-a specialty skin care range.

Sugar free-India’s largest sweetener

Having 78% market share, with a presence in both aspartames as well sucralose categories, Sugar Free enjoys a top of the mind recall in the minds of calorie conscious consumers.

Making a foray in the low calorie beverage market, the division successfully extended the Sugar Free brand name to launch its soft drink Sugar Free D-lite.

Nutralite-butter brand

'Nutralite' India's leading table spread offers several benefits for the health conscious and fitness conscious consumer as it is cholesterol free, has no hydrogenated fats and no trans fats. Low in saturated fats, Nutralite is also enriched with Vitamins A, D and E.

Ever youth-skin care

The specialty range of skin care products are marketed by the division under the umbrella name 'EverYuth'. The brand today enjoys the No.1 position in the scrub and peel-off categories and is the 2nd largest selling face wash brand in India

Having good products and strong customer base why we are under weighting the stock of Zydus Wellness?

First reason valuation is not justified in terms of sales growth and profit growth.

Second reason batter opportunity available at good valuation.

Let’s check the fundamentals of the stock.

Debt-free status: 100% debt-free-good for long term sustainable growth.

P/E multiple 42% vary high and above sales and profit growth rate.

PBV: Price to book value 18 times.

PCF: Price to cash flow 41 times.

Dividend yield just 0.39%.

So over all valuation is high and with no big margin of safety at current market price.

So we are underweighting the stock and recommending clients to book profit or avoid new investments in this stock.

MUTUAL FUND PICK:

Franklin India Blue-chip Fund

Recommendation:

Buy.

Ration: Good for long term conservative investors.

COMMODITY UPDATE:

Those who are regular readers of my week report knows many time I have describe views based on Dow theory and complex theory wave pattern.

Hear in this article I have expressed my view on gold based on Dow theory, wave patter and head and shoulder patter.

First chart is COMEX gold (USA):

We have shown wave structures which is as below,

Wave 1(down) 1226 to 1075.

Wave 2(up) 1075 to 1161.

Wave 3(down) 1161 to 1044.

Wave 4(up) 1044 to 1130.

Wave 5 down?

As per wave structure and calculations target of wave 5 will be 900 to 850.

If you see the wave structure which shows lower tops and lower bottoms.

Now to continue with this pattern gold needs to go below 1044.

Three consecutive and weekly closes below 1044 will confirm the down wave pattern.

Second chart is MCX gold:

Look at the chart which is forming higher tops and higher bottoms.

Now last higher bottom is 15950, now to break this higher tops and higher bottom formation gold needs to go and sustain below 15950, but our gold price is largely dependence on COMEX we will filter price by 3% and will confirm the bearish trend below 15450.

Along with this gold is forming large head and shoulder pattern of 4400 points.

Confirming head shoulder will come by two ways once comex gold gives three consecutive close below 1044 and mcx gold close below 15450 my target will be 12500.

US DOLLAR INDEX

From 75 levels I am bullish on us dollar index and now has crossed 81 mark.

I have attached chart which shows wave pattern.

Wave 1(up) 72.23 to 78.45

Wave 2(down) 78.45 to 76.60

Wave 3(up) 78.60 to 81.34

Wave 4(down) 81.34 to 79.51

Wave 5 up start above 81.34

Now if you mark this is forming higher tops and higher bottom ,now to start 5^th wave of up dollar needs to close 3 consecutive close above 81.34 then as per wave calculation my target 85.

If dollar get strong up to my target levels then I expect vertical fall across the commodities/gold/silver/metals.

GLOBAL MARKET

I have attached chart of S&P 500 of America.

Look at the chart index is forming higher tops and higher bottoms with this see it is forming 5 wave pattern.

If index close 3 consecutive days and weekly above 1178 then as per wave count my target is 1333 and 1397.

As per time series from low of 675 this is 13 month so this can change the trend but if it conclude the bullish condition then we will see another 4 month rally in US market and above target.

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK

Support at 5238/5180/5130

Resistance at 53010/5351/5387

Market is rising with lots of liquidity pumping By Fiis and domestic’s institutions (many time told in my fundamental analysis)

After constant rise from budget we are still below last high of 17800 and 5300 (cash market) respectively sensex and nifty ,yes we have not broken the lower bottom of 15300 and 4500 for nifty but we need to cross and substation above 17800 and 5300 with vary good volume.

If the above condition happens then we have given Elliott wave analysis of “common flat a-b-c” pattern and which will take sensex to 19300/19600 and in last leg it will cross 21000 mark also.

But we need to sustain above 17800 for quite some time say for 4 consecutive weeks, last time after Dubai fall sensex has taken out the 17500 levels but it sustain above 17500 for 2 weeks and panic start so this time we need to close above 17500 for at least 4 week thereafter we will see the next up move from hear.

In technical analysis every penny counts, still after such a rise we have not cross the high and in my last report I have argued about “head and shoulder” pattern and if we are not able to cross the high 17800 and 5300 then problem is their and doors for down side should be cautioned.

The rules of the game (stock market) is to be in direction of major trend and get out when the trend has reached the stage where almost everyone has become complacent and careless.

MOMENTUM CALLS

Market is at high speed and if you don’t wear helmet while you running bike at 100 speeds your life is at risk.

Hear we suggest you some trading calls but we also suggest you to buy April month put options to hedge you buying position because market is running on high speed and any single bed news will create vertical fall and you may loose significantly.

TATA MOTORS

Buy with stop loss 725 targets 770/782.

EVEREST KANTO

Buy with stop loss 115 targets 130/145.

IFCI

Buy above 53 stop loss 47 target 64.

GE SHIPPING

Buy with stop loss 290 target 308/318.

GVK POWER

Buy with stop loss 41 targets 49.

NMDC

Buy with stop loss 282 target 310/325.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“I am comfortable if we double our money in three years”

-Warren Buffett.