WEEKLY MARKET REPORT FOR TRADERS AND INVESTORS

FUNDAMENTAL STOCK PICK

ZYDUS WELLNESS LTD.

RECOMMENDATION:

book profit/Avoid new investments/under weight.

About the Company:

After Cadila group acquired Carnation Nutra Analogue Foods from its earlier promoters, Cadila Healthcare demerged its Consumer products business in to CNFL and renamed CNFL to Zydus Wellness.

The company has very popular brands Sugar Free-the low calorie sweetener, Nutralite-the premium table spread and EverYuth-a specialty skin care range.

Sugar free-India’s largest sweetener

Having 78% market share, with a presence in both aspartames as well sucralose categories, Sugar Free enjoys a top of the mind recall in the minds of calorie conscious consumers.

Making a foray in the low calorie beverage market, the division successfully extended the Sugar Free brand name to launch its soft drink Sugar Free D-lite.

Nutralite-butter brand

'Nutralite' India's leading table spread offers several benefits for the health conscious and fitness conscious consumer as it is cholesterol free, has no hydrogenated fats and no trans fats. Low in saturated fats, Nutralite is also enriched with Vitamins A, D and E.

Ever youth-skin care

The specialty range of skin care products are marketed by the division under the umbrella name 'EverYuth'. The brand today enjoys the No.1 position in the scrub and peel-off categories and is the 2nd largest selling face wash brand in India

Having good products and strong customer base why we are under weighting the stock of Zydus Wellness?

First reason valuation is not justified in terms of sales growth and profit growth.

Second reason batter opportunity available at good valuation.

Let’s check the fundamentals of the stock.

Debt-free status: 100% debt-free-good for long term sustainable growth.

P/E multiple 42% vary high and above sales and profit growth rate.

PBV: Price to book value 18 times.

PCF: Price to cash flow 41 times.

Dividend yield just 0.39%.

So over all valuation is high and with no big margin of safety at current market price.

So we are underweighting the stock and recommending clients to book profit or avoid new investments in this stock.

MUTUAL FUND PICK:

Franklin India Blue-chip Fund

Recommendation:

Buy.

Ration: Good for long term conservative investors.

COMMODITY UPDATE:

Those who are regular readers of my week report knows many time I have describe views based on Dow theory and complex theory wave pattern.

Hear in this article I have expressed my view on gold based on Dow theory, wave patter and head and shoulder patter.

First chart is COMEX gold (USA):

We have shown wave structures which is as below,

Wave 1(down) 1226 to 1075.

Wave 2(up) 1075 to 1161.

Wave 3(down) 1161 to 1044.

Wave 4(up) 1044 to 1130.

Wave 5 down?

As per wave structure and calculations target of wave 5 will be 900 to 850.

If you see the wave structure which shows lower tops and lower bottoms.

Now to continue with this pattern gold needs to go below 1044.

Three consecutive and weekly closes below 1044 will confirm the down wave pattern.

Second chart is MCX gold:

Look at the chart which is forming higher tops and higher bottoms.

Now last higher bottom is 15950, now to break this higher tops and higher bottom formation gold needs to go and sustain below 15950, but our gold price is largely dependence on COMEX we will filter price by 3% and will confirm the bearish trend below 15450.

Along with this gold is forming large head and shoulder pattern of 4400 points.

Confirming head shoulder will come by two ways once comex gold gives three consecutive close below 1044 and mcx gold close below 15450 my target will be 12500.

US DOLLAR INDEX

From 75 levels I am bullish on us dollar index and now has crossed 81 mark.

I have attached chart which shows wave pattern.

Wave 1(up) 72.23 to 78.45

Wave 2(down) 78.45 to 76.60

Wave 3(up) 78.60 to 81.34

Wave 4(down) 81.34 to 79.51

Wave 5 up start above 81.34

Now if you mark this is forming higher tops and higher bottom ,now to start 5^th wave of up dollar needs to close 3 consecutive close above 81.34 then as per wave calculation my target 85.

If dollar get strong up to my target levels then I expect vertical fall across the commodities/gold/silver/metals.

GLOBAL MARKET

I have attached chart of S&P 500 of America.

Look at the chart index is forming higher tops and higher bottoms with this see it is forming 5 wave pattern.

If index close 3 consecutive days and weekly above 1178 then as per wave count my target is 1333 and 1397.

As per time series from low of 675 this is 13 month so this can change the trend but if it conclude the bullish condition then we will see another 4 month rally in US market and above target.

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK

Support at 5238/5180/5130

Resistance at 53010/5351/5387

Market is rising with lots of liquidity pumping By Fiis and domestic’s institutions (many time told in my fundamental analysis)

After constant rise from budget we are still below last high of 17800 and 5300 (cash market) respectively sensex and nifty ,yes we have not broken the lower bottom of 15300 and 4500 for nifty but we need to cross and substation above 17800 and 5300 with vary good volume.

If the above condition happens then we have given Elliott wave analysis of “common flat a-b-c” pattern and which will take sensex to 19300/19600 and in last leg it will cross 21000 mark also.

But we need to sustain above 17800 for quite some time say for 4 consecutive weeks, last time after Dubai fall sensex has taken out the 17500 levels but it sustain above 17500 for 2 weeks and panic start so this time we need to close above 17500 for at least 4 week thereafter we will see the next up move from hear.

In technical analysis every penny counts, still after such a rise we have not cross the high and in my last report I have argued about “head and shoulder” pattern and if we are not able to cross the high 17800 and 5300 then problem is their and doors for down side should be cautioned.

The rules of the game (stock market) is to be in direction of major trend and get out when the trend has reached the stage where almost everyone has become complacent and careless.

MOMENTUM CALLS

Market is at high speed and if you don’t wear helmet while you running bike at 100 speeds your life is at risk.

Hear we suggest you some trading calls but we also suggest you to buy April month put options to hedge you buying position because market is running on high speed and any single bed news will create vertical fall and you may loose significantly.

TATA MOTORS

Buy with stop loss 725 targets 770/782.

EVEREST KANTO

Buy with stop loss 115 targets 130/145.

IFCI

Buy above 53 stop loss 47 target 64.

GE SHIPPING

Buy with stop loss 290 target 308/318.

GVK POWER

Buy with stop loss 41 targets 49.

NMDC

Buy with stop loss 282 target 310/325.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

“I am comfortable if we double our money in three years”

-Warren Buffett.

Successful Speculation

Successful speculation implies taking risks when the odds are in your favour.

Vascon engineers Ltd on Fire!!

Before few days ago recommended VASCON ENGINEERS LTD.
 1st Target Achieved of Rs.150...Now 165 Confirmed.

Funny Quote

Fundamental Analysis= Something is bought and the given targets are achieved long time, say year or more after recommendation.


Technical Analysis= Something is bought and the given targets are met in shorter than the given time frame.




Sent by Sunil from Mumbai.
Caution: Take it as funny only and not seriously.

S&P 500: Wave 5th to start?

Before Few Days Ago We Have written That "three constitutive close above 1128 will take to 1160 /1175 levels",and just see yesterday when you were sleeping it touched our target!!!


If you had missed to read it-then click this link: http://www.meghainvestments.com/search/label/global%20markets


NOW WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THIS STAGE?

------>>>>If closes above 1178 for 3 Consecutive days and Weekly close then wave 5 can take up to 1333/1397-----<<<<<


Click on the below chart to understand more: 

 

Tasty Tuesday For Our paid Members

Todays message to paid members

first message at 7:57am
over night nifty update
keep stop loss 5265
expect panic below 5180
closing below 5130 will create blood-bath
hold 5300 april call for hedge

second message at 9:17am
nifty option traders buy 5100 april month put trading at 72
exit if nifty cross 5265 

third message at 9:52
nifty traders save this message
today if nifty not cross 5248 and close below 5234
then bears control
read again and again

forth message  at 1:1pm
book profit in nifty around 5200 short at 5248/ 5235

fifth message at 1:17pm
now nifty below 5200 book profit and celebrate RAM NAVMI(birth day of RAM who win lanka(presently sri lanka)
short at 5248 and 5235
48+35 point profit

sixth message at 2:07pm
nifty trading at 5220 keep stop loss 5215

seventh message at 2:11pm
dont shock by just 5 points stop loss
our insiders says one big player will cover 5lakh nifty

eighth message at 2:42pms
book profit in nifty at 5240 and salute us
from 5220
enjoy blast 

many new traders ask about track record now i have put my todays time wise message and this message will be read also by my paid members

if you wants to become paid members call me!

Greate Monday for Our Paid Members

1st message of morning to paid members at 8.42am as below:

Intra day Nifty Traders.

Buy nifty around 5180/5170 stop loss 5135

45/35 point risk.

2nd message to paid members at 9:6am:

Just see and book profit in Nifty in just 7 minutes 5235 told you to buy at 5180...enjoy life

3rd message to paid  members at 9:12 am.

If you don't trade then i can not send you demand draft,

always keep your eye open and trade, we personally sold Infosys futures and minted money! 

4th message at 10:42 nifty trading at 5248 keep stop loss of 5265 and sell

every one was jumping and buying and nifty crashed below 5208(40  point profit)

still looking weak only

DOLLAR TO SHOW STERNGTH ABOVE 81.34

Just click on the chart to see the dollar index chart.

Dollar is making higher top-higher bottom formation.

Along with this 3 consecutive close above last higher top of 81.34 will start wave 5th and as per wave count target will come 85.

If dollar close 3 day above 81.34 then i expect free fall/blood-bath situation in gold/silver/metals/crude oil.

I request you all to read that dollar will strengthen only above 81.34 after it close 3 consecutive close above it.

Power Punch

In march Month series we had given following strategy on web site and all clients:
Oil and gas index to outperform relatively in march month,  
Buy reliance ind 1000 strike price call at 25.
Buy nifty fu 4700 put at 45.


Today we sent message that book profit of 17000 on margin of 9750 for this position.
Now those who are following our message are minting big money.

GOLD: REMAINING RATIONAL IN THE WORLD OF FINANCIAL ASSETS

GOLD: BEWARE OF IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE.

REMAINING RATIONAL IN THE WORLD OF FINANCIAL ASSETS.

THERE IS NO ‘HOLY COW’ IN FINANCIAL ASSETS MARKETS.

There are several reasons why gold prices should and should not keep on going up.

The ever weakening dollar- the gold bulls argue that the dollar is going to continue to weaken and due to that gold prices will continue to rise. But friends we have seen in history that the dollar has slid against euro even lower levels than the recent lows. 

Negative point:

The bear market in gold lasts a lot greater than that of equity.

I also feel that the end user has certain non-tolerance level when it comes to use of gold prices. The industrial people will definitely cut back on inventories while the users of jewelery will unless inevitable, not buy jewelery

There is a limit of tolerance for end users-the industry.

When more return/crazy euphoric bull markets in emerging-other equities will start fund managers will move from gold to equities.

People need to understand that International Funds/investors including hedge funds are traders of financial assets. They don’t fall in love with them. They trade with stoplosses and extensively use technical analysis and quant theories and models. So infact they are the biggest risk to gold prices because when they will sell, they will not care about ‘the the holy precious metal’ status. They will just sell when their trailing SL is hit.

IS WAR COMING?:

In fact the 9-11, afganistan, Iraq war ended. In case china invades Iraq it will not affect usa or Europe because their natural resource needs are satisfied by africal and other countries. Can china go war with usa. No one has given such opinion or view. China owns billions of dollar to America and japan is the world’s largest creditor nation. USA is increasingly strengthening its association with china. The terrosiam is an almost taken for granted permanent phenonmena. It impacts only crude oil and other commodities of ‘supplyable value’, mostly crude and natural gas. Both’s prices rise if some of these gang attacks on pipelines anywhere.

Gold is hoarded and is mostly recyclable unlike crude oil and agricommodities which are perishable and once used can not be recovered or reused.

The strongest point for gold is UNCERTAINTY IN CURRENCY MARKETS. A safety against currency crisis. Otherwise the reason for its priceros due to its emergence as an asset class seems to over-spoken. Its new for us but a decade old for the western ‘split second, pip’ investor and traders. If the currency crisis is coming it should have come when the lehman collapsed and almost the whole western economies paralyzed which was even termed immediately ‘to be a 1930 type of great depression’. If china don’t like dollar or want to sell dollar short of knows that it is going to diminish in value than why it is taking it's bond? Why it is giving loan to it. Today china is the biggest creditor of USA.

We don’t argue that the USA is omnipowerful or that the dollar will rule the world for next 100 years and more. But if the currency has to fail,these are surely not the signs of failing. In fact the depreciation in dollar helped USA to import cheap while its factories were down for a year and half due to recession. And assuming that the dollar will rise then the USA will pay less in interest for loans taken.

USA DEFICIT IS ALSO NOT NEW

USA has seen skyrocketing/gigantic deficits in its history. This is not new. People like jim rogers, buffet, mark faber have repeatedly criticizes USA govt. and fed to /borrow excessively/become debtful and print money and flood the system with money. But it should be noted that this is what is monetary economics all about. Its not that this is right. There are other proper ways. But nothing is perfect. Infact people praised fed and USA govt to save the economy from the SEVEREST ECONOMIC CRISIS SINCE 1930 DEPRESSION (we suspect if people will say it so, because the financial markets in the usa and other countries have already recovered, and as we are writing the usa dow jones is not much far from highs. Indeed this seemed to be a depression of financial markets and similarly a recovery of financial markets. After all it is a ‘financial market economy’. If it were a ‘real market economy’ such as in 1930 then the so-called 2007-08’s 1930 like of depression would have lasted much longer because that depression lasted more than 3 years until the government acted.

HISTORIC GOLD PRICE-CHARTS:

1975 2000.

1980-2007.

Started rising in 2002 till date.

Careers

MEGHA INVESTMENTS AND RESEARCH is basically an innovative research driven investments and trading advisory, management and intermediary firm.

We are always looking for freelance research and work contributor apart from customer relation executives (must undergo training at our place, then they can work out of their own convenience on phone and internet subject to daily MIS system reporting).

Thus we invite work opportunity for following profiles,

1. Customer relationship manager
2.  Free lance research and analysis contributor 
3. Others

If you think you can work with us in any way then also feel free to write to us and send your full resume on info@meghainvestments.com

Power Punch

In march Month series we had given following strategy on web site and all clients:
Oil and gas index to outperform relatively in march month,  
Buy reliance ind 1000 strike price call at 25.
Buy nifty fu 4700 put at 45.


Today we sent message that book profit of 17000 on margin of 9750 for this position.


Now those who are following our message are minting big money.

Greate Monday for Our Paid Members

1st message of morning to paid members at 8.42am as below:
Intra day Nifty Traders.
Buy nifty around 5180/5170 stop loss 5135
45/35 point risk.


2nd message to paid members at 9:6am:
Just see and book profit in Nifty in just 7 minutes 5235 told you to buy at 5180...enjoy life


3rd message to paid  members at 9:12 am.
If you don't trade then i can not send you demand draft,
always keep your eye open and trade, we personally sold Infosys futures and minted money! 

4th message at 10:42 nifty trading at 5248 keep stop loss of 5265 and sell
every one was jumping and buying and nifty crashed below 5208(40  point profit)
still looking weak only

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT FOR TRADERS AND INVESTORS

FUNDAMENTAL STOCK PICK

CASTROL INDIA LTD.

RECOMMENDATION:

Book Profit.

Over priced/under weight.

About the Company:

Castrol India is the largest private sector lubricant company in India with nearly 21 % market share.

The Co. produces engine oils for automotive, industrial and marine & energy segments. In the auto segment, company provides diesel engine oils to trucks, tractors & off-road equipment; gasoline engine oils to passenger cars for 2-stroke & 4-stroke oils to motorcycles & 3-wheelers. In the industrial segment, company caters to the metals, auto & machine manufacturing segments.

The Co. has very popular brands which include Castrol Active 4T, Castrol RX Supermax, Castrol CRB Turbo, Castrol Magnatec, and Castrol Power

The Co. has tie up with original manufacturer like maruti, tata motors, hero Honda, jcb, mahindra, BMW, VW, MAN, Audi, Volvo and Renault to sale its products.

Having good brands, good profit margins, clients, and yes debt-free status; why one should book profit/avoid investments OR why are we underweighting share of this company?

Lest look at the financial of the company.

Debt-free status is good for long term sustainable growth.

The stock is trading at P/E multiple of 30 which is high for the the engine oil company.

While valuing a debt free company with investments guru warren buffet style we look at the cash flow per share. Stock is trading at 26 time of the cash flow per share which is much higher at current levels.

Return on net worth (RONW) and Return on capital employed (ROCE) are excellent.

Strong brand, high return on capital but valuation parameter are high like P/E multiple and cash flow with this look at the main raw material crude oil which is constantly rising and it is expected to rise further so this will hit margin significantly in future so at this levels stock is trading at high priced and we underweight the stock and advising to book profit/avoid new investments.

MUTUAL FUND PICK

HSBC MID CAP FUND

Recommendation: Avoid this fund, because the fund fails to deliver good return and underperforming its bench mark.

 

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK:

Support at 5130/5050/4990.

Resistance at 5303/ 5360/5410.

Last week we had give sell call on nifty fu and stop loss get triggered. We had created hedge position by buying call options of different strike price so we have covered most of losses.

Market is rising with lots of liquidity pumping By FIIs and domestic’s institutions (many time told in my fundamental analysis).

After constant rise from budget we are still below last high of 17800 and 5300 respectively for Sensex and Nifty. Yes, we have not broken the lower bottom of 15300 and 4500 for nifty but we need to cross and substation above 17800 and 5300 with very good volume.

If the above condition happens then we have given Elliott wave analysis of “common flat a-b-c” pattern and which can take Sensex to 19300/19600 and in last leg it can cross 21000 mark also.

But we need to sustain above 17800 for quite some time say for 4 consecutive weeks, last time after Dubai-fall Sensex has taken out the 17500 levels but it sustained above 17500 for 2 weeks and panic started; so this time we need to close above 17500 for at least 4 week thereafter we will see the next up move from hear.

In technical analysis every penny counts, still after such a rise we have not cross the high and in my last report I have argued about “head and shoulder” pattern and if we are not able to cross the high 17800 and 5300 then problem is their and doors for down side is open so remember my following words

“The rule of the game (stock market) is to be in direction of major trend and get out when the trend has reached the stage where almost everyone has become complacent and careless.”

Everything is described in above three lines and we advise you to book profit if you have invest money before budget (yes we were telling in every report this is buying opportunity) and put all your money in to liquid mutual fund schemes and enjoy vacation and come back if Sensex close above 17800 for 4 consecutive weeks.

GLOBAL STOCK MARKET UPDATE:

Dow Jones-

It is trading at crucial resistance levels of 10500 to 11500 levels, so be careful on higher side.

S&P 500-

For this broader index, the major resistance area is 1178; if it closes three consecutive + weekly closes above 1178 then it will move further. As per time series this is 13 month from low of 675.

MOMENTUM TRADING CALLS:

Friends, the market is at high speed and if you don’t wear helmet while you running motorcycle at speed of 100, then your life is at risk.

Hear we suggest you some trading calls but we also suggest you to buy April month put option to hedge you buying position because market is running on high speed and any single bed news will create vertical fall and you may loose significantly.

 

Hedge by,

Buy April month 5000 put trading at 44.

Buy April month 4900 put trading at 29.

Buy one lot of each with total premium of 3650

Trade in half quantity what you regularly trade in market in following stocks:

Cairn India Ltd.

Stock broken triangle, buy with stop loss 270 targets 303

Mercator lines Ltd.

This stock has given breakout from inverted head and shoulder pattern; buy with stop loss 56 targets 70.

Reliance infrastructure Ltd.

Buy with stop loss 1010 target 1044/1050.

Sesa goa

Buy with stop loss 437 targets 470/490.

Aditya Birla Nuvo

This stock broken inverted head and shoulder pattern; buy with stop loss 850 targets 930/960.

ALERT: We expect profit booking in jai corp, Indian hotels, hind copper and hindalco. So we suggest avoiding going long in these scrips.

QUOTE OF THE WEEK:

" I don't want a lot of good investments, I want a few outstanding ones."

-Phill Fisher, Famous Successful investor.

Advantage Of Early Investments

Dear investors,
Many Times you all have read about multi-bagger stock or rising stars and many investments companies gives example about early investments that how small companies became big corporate and successful business. Let’s see some example of the same,


Change in share prices over the past 10 years:

Stock	Price of 15/12/1999	Price of 15/12/2009
Aban Offshore	6.7	1191
Era infra	1.2	197
Shriram transport	4.5	451
Kalpataru power	20	1020

      Now tell me are you a person who has invested in any of the company for the above given period? Ask the track of analyst who is suggesting you to invest in stock market.
      Let me give you track of our research team who has experience of more than 7 year and his family has experience of 40 years ,how they spot the long opportunity at low levels or early stage of the business or early stage of economy.

STOCK	INV.PRICE	CURRENT PRICE
Tata power	25	1300
Tata steel	25	500
Larson	20	1600
Reliance ind (demerger)	10	1000
Values adjusted for merger/	Demerger/bonus/split etc

      Now see the gain after long term, many analyst or economist including we believe Indian economy will grow but which stock or companies are worth to buy and beat the stock market in the long run? Like warren buffett, rakesh junjunwala, ramesh damani, ramdeoo agrawal.
      Try and find out the Companies with negligible revenue from core operation but with mega plans under implementation are worth a look.
      Few companies have little or nothing to show by way revenue and profit from their core business operations. Many of these companies have mega future plans that could completely transform the company, its business profile and size of operations.
Investing in such stocks makes sense before their core business goes on stream and start contributing to the top line as immediately after this it is most likely that such stocks would witness re-rating and rise further.
       Before investing in such companies, investors can try to reduce risk by focusing on various aspects of the industry and company. Such as management credentials, project implementation skills and experience, corporate governance norms, financial backing by group, industry dynamics and size of the business opportunity etc
We don't have to tell that in past we have find out HIDDEN GEMS of the future at early stage of the business like tata power, tata steel, reliance group, larson and tubro and more.

        Now if you feel that you or your family not enough lucky like , ramesh damani,rakesh junjunwal, ramdeoo agrwal who always find out "diamond" at early stage of the business/economy like gillette, mcdowell, find out by ramesh damani, praj ind or beml find out by rakesh junjunwals, hero honda and bharti find out by ramdeoo agrwal or hdfc bank find out by sameer arora of Helios capital then don.t worry we have find out the next"HIDDEN GEMS"or "DIAMOND" at early stage of the business and ready to become big business in terms of revenue and profit in the next decade .
AND THEY ARE THE 4 ACE for ANY INVESTORS PORTFOLIO.
You can SUBSCRIBE IN OUR NEW PMS SERVICE-4 ACE for above long term opportunity.




Manager,
MEGHA INVESTMENTS AND RESEARCH TEAM,
Please feel free to contact me on,
09377008708
Profit.megha@gmail.com

S.kumars Locked In upper freeze!

At 8.58 AM, we sent message to our paid members as below:
"Catch S.kumars on the opening bell, your stop loss 46, forget for next 48 hours. Management will appear on tv. 


What happen then? Simply it is now locked in 20% upper freeze...!!1