Important Points For Traders From Mark Douglas's 'Trading In The Zone'
Mark Douglas has written one of the best books
on the psychology of successful trading. In his book, Trading
In the Zone, Douglas discusses how a trader can begin to
eliminate the emotional risk of trading via a probabilistic mind-set. A
probabilistic mind-set is essential to understanding the market because the
market is “always communicating in probabilities.” In other words, the
market does not speak Chinese, English, Russian, or bullish or bearish…it
speaks probability. If we plan on living in China we need to learn
Chinese, if Russia then Russian. If we plan on making a living in the
market then we need to learn the language of probability. A probabilistic
mind-set consists of internalizing the following fundamental truths:
1. Anything
can happen. Or as I like to say, anything can happen…and
often does. Usually the market does the exact opposite of what we think it
should do and when we begin to doubt the market it does exactly what we once
thought it should do. Get it?
2. You
don’t need to know what is going to happen next in order to make money. Trading
is not about being right in our arrogant predictions, it is about making
money. We are never going to be able to predict what will happen next
either in the market or in life so let’s just get over it once and for all.
3. There
is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables
that define an edge. Trading is like tossing a coin: we
can have five wins in a row or five losses; we could win one lose
one. Wins and losses are random so do not bet the farm or the crops.
4. An
edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing
happening over another. Call it what we will but if we
have a system, a methodology, a strategy, an edge for locating a trade then we
have found an indication of a high probability circumstance that has been
historically proven to repeat itself over and over again and will probably do
so in the future.
5. Every
moment in the market is unique. No matter how many times
we have traded an edge the outcome can be different this time and no matter how
perfectly matched this pattern
is with the last one, this one is truly unique if for no other reason than in
this market the participants are not the same as in the last one. The market
is too diverse and too fluid to be put in a box, wrapped up and sold to the
next consumer.
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