WEEKLY MARKET REPORT FOR TRADERS AND INVESTORS

FUNDAMENTAL STOCK PICK:

NOVARTIS INDIA LTD.

cmp is Rs.525,

Target is Rs.735

Rational:

Novartis has a countrywide presence in the healthcare business with pharmaceuticals contributing 70% to total revenues, generics (8%), consumer healthcare i.e. OTC (14%) and animal health (8%) make up for the rest.

 Novartis has identified therapeutic segments of Cardiovascular, oncology, Central Nervous System and gynecology as the key growth drivers for the future.

Novartis has some strong brands in its portfolio, which have been contributing to the topline growth over the years. In the pharmaceuticals division, the products ‘Voveran’ (pain & inflammation), ‘Methergin’ (gynaecology) and ‘Neoral’ (transplantation) continue to dominate the market in their respective therapeutic areas.

Novartis has a strong presence in the OTC (over the counter) segment owing to its very popular brand ‘Calcium Sandoz’.

The Company has no debt in its book which we always like.

The company has strong track of constant dividend payment.

The company enjoys higher profit margins and higher return on net worth and return on capital employed.

Apart from strong business let’s do some mathematical computation to value the company’s share price:

Book value 188 + cash per share 140+revenue per share 187=515 total value per share.

So you are paying just 10 rupee for the company having sales of Rs.640 crores and profits of Rs.100 crore. 

So we believe this is a value buying opportunities at current price of Rs.525.

One thing keep in mind please don’t do this kind of calculation at your end because there are lots of companies available in market trading at much low price compare to book value, cash per share or revenue per share without having scalable business and proper management.

Invest in those companies who has proven financial and business execution track record with high corporate governance. 

Remember bubble of Harsad Mehta was based on the same above valuation matrix and common people without approaching fulltime professional like us have lost their hard earn money.

Always buy on VALUATIONS an NOT ON THEMES...

Whether it is DOTCOM, POWER or recent DISINVESTMENT THEMES..

THEMES only make rich the brokers, stock market punters, Operators, Promoters, merchant bankers and fund managers NOT YOU...

Don't you have known what happened with hard earned money of people in Dotcom bubble, or say the Power craze in 2008...

 MUTUAL FUND PICK:

Sundaram BNP Select Midcap Fund:

Recommendation: Buy.

Ration:

This fund has delivered return in bull and bear market but this fund takes high risk

So this fund is for those who are ready to take high risk in mid cap fund.

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK:

SUPPORT AT 4750/4600/4500

RESISTANCE 5000/5100/5172

Trend reversal or correction a million dollar question

Nifty correct 10% in just 17 days.

Let’s paint the scenario to give answer of above question a trend reversal or correction by two way (1) technical analysis arguments (2) fundamental analysis arguments.

(1)  TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ARGUMENTS

As per our last week’s argument as long as index trading above 200 DMA and above Dubai-debt crisis panick bottom which are placed at 15300 and 4500 for SENSEX and NIFTY respectively this 10% fall in 17 days is just a correction should not be counted into a complete trend reversal.

One question comes in everyones’ mind that which sector will lead the rally as 2009 rally was back by auto ,bank ,metals,pharma sector now we believe  its time to buy oil and gas sector for 2010 rally on sectorial based analysis.

We have given our Elliott wave view on oil and gas index before 2-3 week ago (Click here to Read)

As per WAVE COUNT it will start 5^th wave and will lead the next stock market rally.

Coming to broad based market traders keep stop loss of 15300 and 4500 for their long positions.

    (2)    FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS ARGUMENTS

Looking at the over all results announced so far we believe earning growth will be any where between 20 to 25% in the next 12 month.

Index are trading at 16 P/E multiple for estimated earning of fiscal 2010-2011 which is vary reasonable.

Current market situation could throw up some exciting opportunities in some high growth emerging sectors.

We believe the FII inflow will not be a big issue as world has more money and less opportunity.

While mid cap stocks have done well in the recent past, the valuations are still at discount to their larger peers. 

Keeping above view in mind we recommend investor to be disciplined investing with principle of asset allocation.

We recommend MID CAP PMS 1 AND MID CAP PMS 2 for those who have investments horizon of 1 to 2 years.

This STANDAR PMS PORTFOLIOS are All About Making The Most of the Bull Market.

CONCLUSION

So over all both on technical and fundamental arguments we believe this is not trend reversal and just a correction and trader and investor should find out value buying in market.

TECHNICAL STOCK PICKS:

Reliance Ind:

stops loss 1025 targets 1066/1082

Reliance capital:

stop loss 777 targets 831/850

GMDC:

stop loss 137 targets 153/161

Hexaware:

stop loss 75 targets 87/92

IOB:

stop loss 85 targets 97/102

KEY NEWS TO WATCH OUT

3^rd February to 5^th February: Follow-on public offer of NTPC.

FUNDAMENTAL PICK: Novartis India Ltd.

 NOVARTIS INDIA LTD.:
Current market price, 530.
Target Price, 735.
Book Value+Cash holding is Rs.328 per share.
Net market capitalisation is Rs.286 crore.
Last year consolidated sale is Rs.640 crore.
If we deduct last year's profit or Rs.100 crore from present market capitalisation then the stock is quoting at an attractive valuation, and will come under radar of value investor.

DISCLOSURES:
Our PMS Desk Analyst holds  shares. Also our PMS clients hold this shares.

Issued in the interest of investors and traders: ANONYMOUS dotcom tips advisory companies and SMS tips:With Ref to A RECENT PROGRAMM ON CNBC TV.

Avoid BUY/SELLING in stocks based on recommendations through promotional SMS. Focus on financial performance and corporate governance track record of the company.

             Many investors in equities receive text message on their mobile phones at regular intervals. Indeed short message service (SMS) is a very inexpensive and easy option to spread rumours and communicate recommendations to the target audience. Dispatching text messages over mobile phone cost as low as seven paisa to five paisa per message. Moreover, getting the database of investors is also not a very difficult. Another advantage of using text messages over mobile phone is the speed at which information, or rather mis-information, can be spread among the target population.


It is common for investors to receive SMS providing price-sensitive information or rather rumours. In most cases, the objective is to drive up stock prices and to hammer them down. Usually this is the work of small operators with limited clout in the equities market as they do not have the financial clout of big operators.  
Many business people use TEJI IN MARKETS to make such easy money by operation tips or advisory dotcom and sms service. When you go to their ABOUT US page in website they all have almost common texts. You don’t see any responsible persons’ name or name of owners or analysts. Most never give any type of charts or research report or original analysis. Why? Smiply Because they don’t have any analyst!


                 A RECENT PROGRAMM ON CNBC CHANNEL EXPOSED SUCH COMPANIES AND PEOPLE DOING SUCH UNETHICAL AND UNFAIR PRACTICE which has caused many people lose several thousands and even lacks of rupees, just in hope to earn more money out of trading.


                 The point is don’t go behind every dotcom company/website and sms service providing tips or trading recommendation WITHOUT INQUIRING REGARDING THE OWNERS OF THE DOTCOM SITE/COMPANY OR SMS SERVICE AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE ANALYSTS THERE. ALSO CHECK THEIR BACKGROUND. (also read this article in this regard). Further it is our personal suggestion to take advise of only such people who also do fundamental analysis on regular basis and are not just providing only intraday trading tips, because with the advent of advanced soft wares, several online portals, broking companies’ inbuilt charting and trading software it is easy to issue trading calls and tell oneself an analyst. Many text messages are carefully drafted. Though these messages are spreading rumors, they generally attribute the news to “value-buy”, "sources", "rumors", "market talk”,” big-order win” take over buzz”.” bonus issue”, private placement”, and so on. Certain SMSs are typically market pitches that go to advertise particular scrip’s aggressively. 

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT FOR TRADERS AND INVESTORS

FUNDAMENTAL STOCK PICK:

MIC CLECTRONICS

CMP 48, TARGETS 125.

Co’s products are used in sports and live events, advesrtising application covering electronics bill boards and hoardings.

News advertisements ticker displays.

Indoor applications at shopping malls, airports, railways and bus stations.

Mobile applications.

Co’s products has big opportunities in rural electrification and railways as LED products are more efficient ,consumes lesser energy ,last longer ,more powerful and small size.

Global LED market is estimated to be US $ 8 billion by 2011 from US $4 billion.

As per management LED renting industry’s expected to grow to 100 crore by 2010 and live –entertainment industry is expected to touch 800 crore by 2010 in India.

This will help to company.

MIC is monopoly player in India in LED displays and lighting business.

Having monopoly Player Company enjoys operating profit margin of 21% which is healthy.

Over the last 5 year co has maintain debt-equity ration of 0.4 and interest coverage ration of 12 times which are very good.

Keeping above all in mind we expect stock to touch 125 in the next few years from current price of 48.

Which is 160% rise in stock price.

MUTUAL FUND PICK:

ICICI TAX GAIN

Recommendation: Avoid

Ratio: This fund has failed to deliver impressive return in this industry.

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK:

SUPPORT AT 4925/4830

RESISTANCE AT 5115/5208

Trend reversal or correction? A million dollar question.

Nifty correct from 5300 to 4950 – whopping 6.6% down in the 13 days.

Let’s paint the scenario to give answer of above question a trend reversal or correction by two way (1) technical analysis arguments (2) fundamental analysis arguments.

(1)               TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ARGUMENTS

         If we look at the global market like hang sang and shanghai composites, both index have failed to make higher top and start correcting. In India both sensex and nifty made higher top –though both couldn not sustain at those higher levels but at least we have formed the new high on dow theory rules, so this is bit more positive for India when we compare to the heng sang and shanghai.

In market history when market creates new high it always corrects and retrace to 7-8% and there after rally starts.

In India we believe the Dubai-fall bottom is much important based on Dow theory, because this is the last higher bottom formed by both index which are 15300 for Sensex and 4500 for nse Nifty.

If we look at the moving average set-up of both index which are placed like first short-term average, second medium term average ,third long term average and both index are trading above all respective averages so bull market is their.

We try to find out support based on moving averages which are 15500 for Sensex and 4600 for Nifty which are 200 day DMA.

Now as per Dow Theory index need to walk in higher top –higher bottom formation and both sensex and nifty has make higher top above 17500 and 5300 now both index need to substation above higher bottom which are placed at 15300 and 4500 respectively.

As long as we are holding those levels we are in bull market based on Dow Theory and moving averages.

As of now traders and investor needs to find value buying and try to enter at this levels.

(2)               FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS ARGUMENTS.

           

       Nse nifty is trading at P/E multiple of 22.24 and historically when bubble has formed the P/E multiple has been rise to 28 so as of now we are not in any case in bubble zone.

If nifty falls to 4500 then P/E will also fall to 19.87 levels which will make market more attractive, if we analyze The aggregate results for 439 companies announced so far showed that net profit rose 41.4% to Rs 31011 crore on 20.2% rise in sales to Rs 249678 crore in Q3 December 2009 over Q3 December 2008.which show the good recovery in corporate India.

So down side will create value buying opportunities to enter in to market not exit from market.

One should focus on those companies whose sales and profit growth will rise and has limited leveraged balance-sheet and having good corporate governances.

CONCLUSION

So over all both on technical and fundamental arguments we believe this is not trend reversal and just a correction and trader and investor should find out value buying in market.

TECHNICAL STOCK PICKS:

PUNJ LYOD

 stop loss 176, target 196/210.

Ivrcl infra

stop loss 317, targets 352/368.

Guj nre

 stop loss 74 targets 82/86

Praj ind

 stop loss 90 targets 102/106

Hcc stop

 loss 131 targets 144/151

KEY NEWS TO WATH OUT:

26^th January-holiday in market.

29^th  January- RBI Quarterly monetary policy review.

A host of key results will be announced. Prominent amongst them are,

Maruti Suzuki India (on Saturday, 23 January 2010);

Mahindra & Mahindra, Hero Honda Motors, Hindalco Industries, Sterlite Industries, StateBank of India (on Monday, 25 January 2010);

Hindustan Unilever (on Tuesday, 26 January 2010);

Steel Authority of India, DLF (on Wednesday, 27 January 2010);

Tata Steel (on Thursday, 28 January 2010);

Tata Motors, and Sun Pharmaceutical Industries (on Friday, 29 January 2010).

FII SHIFTING TO OIL AND GAS STOCKS: also read our report dated 17/1/2010

Remain Ahead of FIIs 
     , Trade and Invest with MEGHA INVESTMENTS AND RESEARCH TEAM!


Here a link is given where you will find a prominent FII such as Morgan Stanley shifting to OIL and GAS stocks. Also read our "Weekly Report for Traders and Investors" dated 17th Jan where we showed analysis of BSE OIL AND GAS Index and gave analysis of some oil and gas stocks.


To read more click below links:
Click below link to read morgan Stanley.
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/fii-view/why-is-jonathan-garner-shiftingtech-to-oil-stocks_436740.html


Click below link to read our previous report.
http://www.meghainvestments.com/2010/01/weekly-market-report-for-traders-and_17.html


If you bet on what FIIs are gonna bet before them...think how much can you win!
Join our various paid services today! DIAL-09376858284, 09377008708.

MARKET MEN'S VIEWS FOR MIDCAPS INVESTMENT IN 2010

Financial Express reporting FIIs heading for midcap, smallcap shares:http://www.financialexpress.com/news/FIIs-head-for-small---mid-cap-stocks/567856/


Please visit this link which will take you to a report of financial express regarding how FIIs are now becoming bully over the midcap space on indian bourses.


Reliance Mutual Fund:
Reliance Mutual Fund sees merit in investing in midcaps. Also says Domestic fund flows to be stronger in Feb-Mar 2010


Edelweiss Capital bullish on Midcaps:
Follow the below link giving views of Edelweiss Capital on moneycontrol.com for markets in the year 2010.
Excerpt: "... Therefore, the stocks will do well or stocks which are undervalued especially in the midcaps space or in the smallcaps space that will show movements."
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market-outlook/where-does-edelweiss-capital-see-mktsq110_435873.html


PN Vijay's expects midcaps will report good numbers:
Follow the link from moneycontrol.com where famous analyst and portfolio manager 
Excerpts: "...and PN Vijay said he expects especially the midcap companies to report good numbers ahead."


Udayan Mukharji: Managing Editor of CNBC TV 18 contended in his article in FORBES INDIA magazine issue dated 22nd January 2010 to "Look beyond Index heavyweights, and said 2010 could be the year of midcap stocks."


Angel Broking views:
Below is the link where you will find Rajen Shah, Chief Investment Officer, Angel Broking's views.
Also you will find views of KC Securities how they are bullish on midcaps.
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market-edge/expert-stocksector-picks-for-next-_434672.html


IDFC SSKI sees opportunities in midcaps:
"...The reason why this conference is topical at this point in time is because all of last year you have seen a largecaps outperforming midcaps by a significant margin in the early stage of the rally and last year was significantly driven by top-down and a macro theme of India and India’s growth. But now this year, it’s going to be more a stock pickers market and I think this conference (emerging star conference) is therefore very relevant."
"...People like hedge funds etc would have significantly pruned down their holdings in the midcaps and they are getting back up and increasing their holdings in those stocks."
"...So there are same investors, but they have renewed focus on adding the midcap portfolio. Investors, who have actually cut their exposure to midcaps very significantly last year and are building up those positions again."
"...Clearly, midcaps are very-very buoyant about their businesses, there is a same kind of feeling you got from largercap companies earlier in the year where you found that in mid September large companies had started to say that their businesses are turning around. ...midcap companies have already witnessed a turnaround, it's probably the first phase of their growth rate and good numbers, so they are pretty buoyant about their businesses."
"...they are more looking at picking stocks and now they find that the value in the midcap stock while the multiples are not too different is that it is significantly high growth."
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/marketoutlook/see-opportunities-midcap-stocksidfc-sski_435475.html


Famous Trader ATUL SURI also bullish on midcaps:
Click below link to read his views, why he is bullish on midcaps now.
http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/market-outlook/atul-suri-says-bull-mkt-is-not-over-suggests-sectors_437369.html




 We have already launched MIDCAP PMS 1 portfolio with 8 great stocks in the midcap space in September2009. This is not for long-term investment but for gaining benefit of bull run with optimum diversification and upside return expectation of 100-200% with pre-given targets on the basis of fundamental and technical analysis. The investment shall be held for 1-2 years only.
For longer term investment such as 5yr and more, such investor can go for our Latest 4 ACE PMS Portfolio.
For details of midcappms1 please follow the link below:
http://www.meghainvestments.com/2009/09/midcappms-is-open-for-subscription-for.html

GOLD 17800 OR 16000? TRIANGLE

VISION always pays in investing: Must read for all

Sail has given 2240% return to those who have stayed invested for 10 years.

Many companies that were written off not just by the retail investors but by institutional investors as well during the previous bear assault have emerged victorious after financial restructuring. These companies have given super normal profits to their shareholders.
This could be, therefore, the right time for bottom fishing.
This strategy, however, has its own rules. The first and most important being investing with a long-term commitment. Investors should have good withholding power as wonders cannot be expected in the short term (we at Megha Investments and Research team delivered 205% in one year), when the stock begins to come out of the downturn, the investment could multiple in a matter of days. But investors should not be greedy at that point of time. May be, they can liquidate whatever they have invested, but should not completely exit as the stock can give mind-blowing results.
Look at the government owned Steel Authority of India (Sail), the country’s largest steel manufacturer. This stock was trading at sub-Rs 10 level for months in 1999. It recorded a low of Rs 5.50 and a high of Rs 11 in calendar year 1999. The scenario remained more or less same for the next three years: 2000 (in the range of Rs 5.20 to Rs 11.50), 2001 (Rs 3.95 to Rs 8.25), and 2002 (Rs 4.70 to Rs 13.30). This was the period when the steel behemoth was stuck with huge debt of over Rs 21000 crore end fiscal ended March 1999 (FY 1999) — the highest during the last 10 years. Further, interest outgo was also the highest at over Rs 2000 crore.
Since FY 1999, the debt level has come down consistently to Rs 3045 crore end 2008. From the second half of FY 2003, the stock started recovering smartly, emerging in a new avatar after a massive restructuring. The rewards for keeping faith with the company during troubled times are absolutely amazing. The stock is currently trading at around Rs 234, which translates into a gain of 2240 % for those who had bought it at Rs 10 before less than 10 years!
Investors should, thus, be ready to bear the pain of financial restructuring for long duration as it generally means no dividend and may be capital reduction. The challenge for investors is to narrow down companies that have a good financial track record with years of existence, providing confidence about its corporate governance norms. Last, stay invested for years to capture the real upside.
If you don’t want to miss the next decade opportunity such as SAIL then join our newly researched PMS product 4 ACE PORTFOLIO and ride the next decade rally of stock market.
We have find out 4 stock which are able to become the next sail, reliance, ntpc, infosys in the next 5 to 7 years…

To beat the market one needs to think different like Indias warren buffet-Rakesh Junjunwal who bought engineering stock in 1994 when everyone was buying information technology stock and he becomes the real hero.

Retail and institutional investor focus only on ready-mix opportunity like current dis-investment theme and underperforms the market.
You can get more detail by clicking this link: http://www.meghainvestments.com/2010/01/4-ace-pms-portfolio-of-4-stocks-for.html

Contact:

Phone: 09377008708,
Email: Profit.Megha@Gmail.Com.

WEEKLY MARKET REPORT FOR TRADERS AND INVESTORS

FUNDAMENTAL STOCK PICK:

SUZLON ENERGY

CMP 90

TARGET 150

Suzlon is world’s 3^rd largest wind power co.

Company sells its products in 21 country including worlds two fastest growing country India and china.

As per global wind energy council by 2013 there will be 332 giga watt (1giga watt=1000 mega watt) of wind power from current 120 giga watt, means there is addition of 212000 mega watt!

International support to renewable energy from USA, China and India are also favourable for this company.

In India there is a big gap between demand and supply of energy which will push the door of renewable energy such as wind energy because of its low cost and fast commencing of power project and eco-friendly in nature.

Buy out of Hansen and RE-power will boost the top line and bottom line of the company and will also help to diversify revenue across the globe.

To tap the opportunity of 212000 mega watt co has capex plan as under which will be operational within 2 years.

The company is making 15 bn for integrated wind turbine manufacturing facility.

The company is making Rs 11 bn for forging, foundry and machining facility.

MUTUAL FUND PICK:

KOTAK COUNTRA

Recommendation: Avoid for investment.

Reason: This fund fails to delivery impressive return compare to its bench-mark index.

WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK:

Support   5170/5110/5060

Resistance   5308/5361/5425

Nothing more to say about the market as we have already given our “BOLD AND TRANSPERANT” view by giving graphical presentation In the last week’s report.

More confidence will come after this week as 16 major index companies will deliver their results.

Apart from sensex and nifty one index looks more promising then any other which is oil and gas index.

Oil and gas index is about to begun the 5^th and last wave of Elliott wave!

Major index has been rise close to 4 to 5 time from the bottom of 2008

But this oil and gas index has rise 2.50% and underperformer the rally of 2009.

We have attached the chart with analysis.

In Elliott wave last leg of rally is for those who left the party at lower levels and for the professional traders who always loves 1^st and 5^th wave of Elliott wave because both are explosive and fast return generator in nature.

What to expect from base oil and gas index from current 10800 levels?

As per Elliott wave target could be around 18000+ levels.

As per rule the targets of 5th wave is the distance of wave 1 multiply by golden ratio 1.618 and add to the end of wave 1.

In BSE oil and gas index the target can be 18000+

If the last leg of wave starts in the BSE oil and gas index then it will be the theme of 2010 investments and will out performer the broader market,

And we can expect this will help (reliance ind, cairn, ongc) to take sensex and nifty to new high!

To support my analysis ‘ see some news which will be flash in 2010/2011 about the oil and gas companies.

Cairn India

This company will start its full capacity by 2011 which is 130000 barrel per day of production.

Reliance ind

This company’s shares sold by treasury which bought by intuitional like LIC and FIIs which is supporting to take over bankrupt Lyondell Basell, which will help reliance ind to enter in to lucrative USA markets.

Full utilization of gas from Krishna godavri basin is also positive for Rel ind.

As per sources reliance to un-lock the value of reliance retail by listing on the exchange!

As per sources government is all set to give free fuel pricing policy, which will help reliance to sell its product across the India through its own pumps!    

ONGC

Free fuel pricing policy will help the co and divestment of govt stake.

Free fuel pricing policy will help the oil marketing companies like Indian oil, hpcl, bpcl.

Commissioning of hpcl –mittal (bhatinda refinery) will also help this company.

Indian Oil Corporation Ltd

IOC is looking to invest up to Rs 1,500 crores in its maiden nuclear venture in partnership with Nuclear Power Corporation of India Ltd (NPCIL).

As per sources, A core group comprising officials of both NPCIL and IOC will be set up to make a detailed study and assess the investment option for participation either in existing or upcoming projects, including details about the site. The companies will either form a joint venture company or float a special purpose vehicle.

Now looking at the above positive news flow we like oil and gas theme for 2010/2011.

TECHNICAL STOCK PICKS:

Ashok Leyland

Keep a stop loss of 51, and buy for target of 65.

The stock has created v-shape recovery with good volume!

Punj  llyod

Keep a stop of 203 for target 250.

The stock has broken triangle with good volume

Satyam

Keep a stop loss 100 and your target is 136/143.

This stock has created complex inverted head and shoulder pattern.

Reliance comm.

Keep Stop loss at 168 levels and eye for targets of 222/241.

Stock has complete the wave 1 and start wave 2

Reliance ind

Buy if stock close 3 day or weekly close above 1155

After this it will confirm inverted head and shoulder pattern and target is 1320

Ongc

Buy this stock with stop loss 1150 target 1305.

The stock has made triangle on daily chart.

Stop loss should be followed on closing basis!

KEY NEWS TO WATCH OUT FOR NEXT WEEK:

16 major index companies will announce results in this week.

On 18^th j.p.associates,gail,sesa goa.

On 19^th tata power.

On 20^th wipro,hdfc.

On 21^st bhel,icici,larson and tubro,idea.

On 22^nd reliance ind,grasim,bharti,itc,ongc.

On 23^rd maruti Suzuki.

NSE NIFTY HOURLY CHART